The Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees square off in the American League Divisional Series beginning Tuesday, September 30. This looks like a David vs. Goliath matchup on paper - especially since the Yankees have defeated the Twins thirteen straight times. Here's a breakdown of the two teams:
Catcher - Jorge Posada has been drummed up as a possible American League MVP as the season has wound down to the end. He is seventh in the American League in Win Shares (all Win Share totals are coming from baseballgraphs.com), and is first among catchers. Not only is he productive, but his OPS is virtually identical (4 points difference) against lefties and righties. Thus, there is no tactical way to exploit his weaknesses by merely switching him around. Key stat: 954 OPS since All-Star Break.
A.J. Pierzynski is second in Win Shares among American League catchers trailing only the aforementioned Posada. While Pierzynski does not draw nearly as many walks or possess the power of Posada, he is a great contact hitter who is sure to provide some interesting at bats. In fact, there is no Twin I would rather have at the plate in a crucial situation than AJ, simply because of his propensity to create something usual and often productive. Key Stat: A.J. has been hit by 15 pitches, but has walked unintentionally just 10! Times
The Yankees have a slight edge at this position simply because Posada is a much more patient hitter who reaches base over forty percent of the time. He also adds excellent power from both sides of the plate. Defensively, A.J. is superior at blocking balls in the dirt and is one of the best catchers in the league at blocking the plate. Plus, he has a knack of pissing off the opponent and getting under their skin. Edge: slight edge to the Yankees
First Base - Jason Giambi is first on the Yankees, and second among American League first basemen in Win Shares for 2003. In fact, he is fourth in the entire league in Win Shares despite having an off year. A lot was written about his slow start, but surgery to remove calcium deposits from his eyes really turned his year around. Oh, wait…that didn't happen. Well, the surgery happened, but rather than improving, Giambi has actually been a pretty inconsistent player all year. Here are his monthly OPS totals for 2003: 699, 871, 1373, 994, 845, 894. It appears to be true that he initially improved after the surgery (that 1373 OPS in June is downright scary), but that is the only month in which his OPS was higher his totals for the past three seasons. In short, Giambi struggled this year.
Despite his struggles, Giambi still is a very productive and dangerous hitter as he still hit 41 homeruns and walked 128 times. However, he is not the monster that he has been in the recent past and can be challenged. Plus, he is a below average first baseman defensively. Key stat - .192 batting average against left-handed pitching
Doug Mientkiewicz is definitely the best defensive first baseman in the Major Leagues. However, except for a hot streak at the beginning of 2001, he has been an offensive liability for the Twins. Knowing that his production this year would directly influence his contract status for next year because the Twins have many younger and cheaper alternatives handy, Doug put together his best season. Much like Pierzynski, Mientkiewicz ranks directly behind his Yankee counterpart in Win Shares at his position.
The key to Doug's offense is his patience. He will never hit 35 homers in a season, but he can still be a productive and key offensive contributor by getting on base and hitting line drives all across the field. Except for his abysmal April, Mientkiewicz has posted an on base percentage of at least .391 in each month. However, he has been battling wrist problems that have hampered his power and will require off-season surgery. Key stat - 2.5 BB/ K since the All-Star break.
Much like at catcher, the Yankees have an advantage at first base. However, that advantage is not as big as one would believe. After all, Mientkiewicz is concluding his best season as a Major Leaguer while Giambi is mired in his worst in several years. Both players contribute high on base percentages, while Giambi has much more power. Defensively, the Twins have a definite advantage but Joe Torre will probably spell Giambi with Nick Johnson at least once during the series. He is a better defensive player than Giambi and can help negate the Twins edge in that department. Advantage - slight advantage Yankees
Second Base - Alfonso Soriano ranks second among American League second basemen in Win Shares. He has more power than any other second baseman and is concluding his second straight season with 30 homers and 30 stolen bases. The one downside, and this is not his fault at all, is that he is horribly miscast as a leadoff hitter. Much like Jacque Jones, Soriano is allergic to taking walks and will swing at terrible pitches frequently. Joe Torre continues to refuse to drop him in the order despite the fact that he would be much more effective driving in runs than trying to create them. Defensively, Soriano does not possess great range and makes some poor plays on occasion. However, he is very adequate at that position, especially when his offense is taken into account. Key Stat - 1064 OPS in September
Luis Rivas is a very difficult player to describe. He was absolutely horrible, both offensively and defensively, at the start of the season and then put together several good months. However, he seems to be reverting to form down the stretch and becoming a liability for the Twins. His batting average is below .200 for September and his seasonal totals have dropped to the same level as last year. Defensively, Rivas has below average range, especially going to his right, but turns the double play extremely well. Key Stat - 12 walks in June, 13 walks since
There is no question that Alfonso Soriano is the better second baseman. In fact, he has nearly four times as many Win Shares this year than Rivas. However, at times Rivas can be a very productive Major League hitter. Unfortunately, he is in his worst stretch of the season and has stopped both hitting for power and taking walks. Advantage - Big edge to the Yankees
Third Base - Since being acquired at the trade deadline, Aaron Boone has been a disappointment. The man he replaced, Robin Ventura, had a .263 Equivalent Average (thanks to Baseball Prospectus.com for the stat) for the Yankees and was considered too old and a hindrance to the team. Boone, as a Yankee, has a .258 EQA. To put that into perspective, Ramon Martinez of the Cubs is at .257, Barry Larkin is at .256, the Marlins' Alex Gonzalez is also at .258 and Ramon Vazquez is at .257. Overall, Aaron Boone has 19 Win Shares, but just 5 has a Yankee. Key Stat - .643 slugging percentage in May, .415 the rest of the season
If it were not for several nagging injuries and a short stint on the disabled list, Corey Koskie may have been the Twins' MVP this season. He was third among American League third basemen in Win Shares, and tied for first among the Twins. He is a good base runner and is above average in all phases of the offensive side of the game without excelling in any one area. Defensively, Koskie has outstanding range and soft hands and should be the American League Gold Glove winner at third base. Key Stat - 0 homeruns since All Star break
Both Boone and Koskie have seen their power totals drop in the second half of the season, but Koskie provides more to the Twins. In addition to being an outstanding defensive player, he reaches base more than 20% more frequently. Advantage - Twins
Shortstop - Despite missing more than the a month of the season, Derek Jeter still finished tied for fourth in the American League in Win Shares among shortstops (trailing the trio of A-Rod, Nomar, and Tejada). He reaches base almost forty percent of the time and would be a much better choice to leadoff if Joe Torre wanted to make a change. He ended with his highest batting average since 2000 and twenty-seven points higher than last season at .324. Defensively, well, Jeter sucks. He has the worst range in baseball which makes fairly routine plays look difficult and allows many balls through the infield. Key Stat - 1.31 Defensive Win Shares per 1000 innings (average is a little above 4.5)
No player is more maddening in the entire Major Leagues than Cristian Guzman. For the first half of the 2001 season, he was an offensive spark hitting line drives all across the field and using his amazing speed to wreak havoc on the bases. Since then, he has been inconsistent and below average. His on base percentage did not top .300 in any month until August, and he did not have a homerun until the last two weeks of the season when he hit three in one week. He also finished with 14 triples. Defensively, Guzman is reluctant to dive and has a strong but erratic arm. However, he is a definite upgrade over Jeter. Key Stat - .356 on base percentage since August 1
Guzman is much better than Jeter defensively, but Jeter's offensive value more than balances any of his defensive deficiencies. Advantage - Yankees
Leftfield - Hideki Matsui should not win the AL Rookie of the Year simply because Angel Berroa had a better season. With that said, Matsui has been a solid contributor to the Yankees but not the great player the media has portrayed him as. He basically provided league-average production in left field. His high total of RBIs is a result batting in the middle of the high scoring Yankee lineup. Defensively, Matsui is a decent leftfielder who can play a passable center if Bernie Williams gets injured. Key Stat - .673 slugging percentage in June (.387 the rest of the season)
Shannon Stewart has rejuvenated the Twins in the second half of the season and provided a patient spark at the top of the lineup. He has posted a 854 OPS as a Twin and has bumped Jacque Jones down to the middle of the order where he belongs. Defensively, his arm is fairly week but he has good range. Key Stat - 1016 OPS in the Metrodome.
Matsui and Stewart have been very similar players this year in very different roles. They are separated by less than half of a Win Share and their OPS are almost identical. However, Stewart has been much hotter down the stretch and his mere presence at the top of the order helps create runs by providing some much-needed on base percentage in the leadoff spot. Advantage - slight edge to the Twins
Centerfield- Bernie Williams has been banged up this season and missed a portion while on the disabled list. His defense has fallen dramatically in the last few seasons and many balls now elude him in center. Offensively, his batting average was lower than any season since his first. His on base and slugging percentages were lower than any year since 1993. Be afraid, Yankee fans, he's in a pretty serious decline. Key Stat - 738 OPS since All-Star break
Torii Hunter took a step back this year as his batting average dropped by forty points (however, this is not too concerning since a lot of average is luck). Consequently, his slugging percentage dropped by almost seventy-five points. On the bright side, Torii really improved his patience this year and walked fifteen more times. Also, he stopped from always chasing a 0-2 slider down in the dirt and prolonged many at bats. Defensively, Torii still has phenomenal range, especially going to his left, but his throwing arm is overrated. He is frequently erratic and often casually lobs the ball back into the infield. An aggressive team may be able to steal a base or two off of his lackadaisical play. Key Stat - Just 15 walks and a .293 on base percentage since the All-Star break
Overall, both of these players did not perform at the level expected of them this season. However, Torii still brings exceptional defense to the table while Bernie has his postseason experience. Advantage - Twins
Right field- The Yankees have a trio of players who platoon in rightfield. Ruben Sierra was acquired from Texas but and is a switch-hitter more likely to play against left-handed pitching. Karim Garcia was acquired from Cleveland and provides a lefthanded bat with power for Joe Torre. Finally, David Dellucci was acquired from Arizona but is nursing an injury and may not be available. He is another left-handed option, who hits for a higher average but less power than Garcia. Key Stat - none of the three has an on base percentage higher than .330
The Twins have shuffled players through rightfield constantly since the Matt Lawton trade in 2001. Finally, it appears that Jacque Jones will receive the playing time here. For the second straight season, Jacque had an average of at least .300 while also having an on base percentage lower than .350. His fear of drawing walk is very frustrating, but the Yankees control pitchers do not issue many anyways. Defensively, he still is not comfortable in rightfield but has tremendous range and a strong, but inaccurate arm. He has been nursing a groin pull since July and is still not fully healed. Key Stat - 703 OPS against left-handers (19 percent lower than against righties)
The Twins have a definite advantage at this position although all of the involved players have some serious issues with reaching base. Jacque is a better defensive player than any of the three Yankees and has more power. However, a start by Michael Cuddyer or Lew Ford against a left-handed pitcher could make this an even more advantageous position for the Twins. Advantage - big edge to the Twins
Designated Hitter- Nick Johnson, like many other Yankees, missed part of the year while on the disabled list. However, he has posted some ridiculously good statistics while healthy. His OPS is over 900, and he does not drop off much in performance against left-handed pitching. He has good power and draws many walks. Defensively, he is better than Giambi and will probably start at least one game at first base during the series. Key stat - 708 OPS in September (twenty-six percent below normal level)
Matthew LeCroy finally was freed. Every time it seemed as if he would get a shot at a full-time job, someone would get hurt or recalled and continue to force him back to part-time status. As an everyday player, LeCroy proved that he can provide some power to the lineup by more than doubling his career high in homeruns (it was just a function of playing time as he more than doubled his career high in plate appearances, too). Sadly, it still seems that Gardenhire is looking for a reason not to play him. He MUST be in the lineup against Pettitte (and Wells if he gets a starter) for the Twins to have a shot. Key Stat - 11 walks in September (more than double any other month)
As much as I love LeCroy, Johnson definitely is the better player. Also, LeCroy may not even be in the lineup for the majority of the series. Advantage - Yankees
Starting Pitching- Mike Mussina dominates the Twins. 20-2 lifetime pretty much means that he's the ultimate Twin-killer. Let's see, the Yankees follow him with Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens with David Wells in reserve. Pettitte has gone 16-3 since June. However, he has given up a lot of hits, which means he can fall victim to the porous Yankee defense. Roger Clemens is one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Plus, he will start Game 3 in the Metrodome and has a 10-2 record with a 2.53 ERA on the road this season. David Wells, of course, once pitched a perfect game against the Twins and had two complete game victories over them earlier this season.
Johan Santana and Brad Radke have been phenomenal down the stretch. Radke is 9-1 with a 3.24 ERA in the second half of the season while Santana is 11-2 with a 2.85 ERA as a starter. Kyle Lohse has been very inconsistent this year. At some points, like in May, he is absolutely brilliant; however, he had an abysmal stretch in June and July. Down the stretch Lohse has pitched well with a 3.67 ERA since the beginning of August. The Yankees definitely have an edge in talent and experience, but the Twins top three starters have been excellent down the stretch. Radke, Santana and Lohse have been consistently providing quality starts and these should be low scoring games. The key to the starting pitching is whether or not the Twins can keep the ball in the park. If they keep the scoring close and hand off to the bullpen, then the Twins have a great shot. Advantage - slight edge to the Yankees
Relief Pitching- Mariano Rivera is a great postseason performer with an 0.80 ERA in 80 innings. Expect him to be at his usual dominant self. However, the rest of the Yankees bullpen has been an adventure this season. Gone are the days of Mike Stanton, Ramiro Mendoza and Jeff Nelson (with Steve Karsay sprinkled in). Instead, the team now relies on the pedestrian Gabe White, Felix Heredia, Antonio Osuna and an older and less effective Jeff Nelson.
The Twins bullpen is anchored by the extremely solid duo of Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins. If the team has the lead going into the eighth inning, those two do an excellent job of closing the door. Juan Rincon has been solid in middle relief, but can lose his control on occasion. Eric Milton and J.C. Romero can provide powerful left-handed arms, but neither has been as productive this year as one would want. Milton still has injury concerns while Romero has been horribly inconsistent and concluded the season very poorly.
Both Rivera and Guardado are solid closers, although Rivera has the postseason pedigree that Eddie G can only dream of. Hawkins is easily the most reliable set-up man in the series, but the rest of the middle relievers on both teams are very combustible. If either team's starting pitchers are getting knocked out early in games, this could make for a high scoring series. Advantage - Twins
Bench- The Yankees bench really sucks. Besides the two people not playing in the right-field platoon, there is Enrique Wilson, John Flaherty, and possibly Luis Sojo! Really, there are not many tactical advantages Joe Torre can get from these guys.
On the other hand, Michael Cuddyer, Lew Ford, and the carcass of Mike Ryan while being possessed by some spirit provide excellent options as pinch-hitters to mix and match. Denny Hocking is a poor hitter, but a very acceptable utility guy as long as he is playing solely in the field. The Twins have a huge edge in bench options and Ron Gardenhire may choose to start Lew Ford or Mike Ryan at some point during the season. The Yankees are much more susceptible to injuries, but one of their right-field platoon partners will probably have a huge pinch hit at some point in the series and cause numerous articles to be written about how deep the time is. In actuality, the small market Twins are much, much deeper. Advantage - big edge to the Twins
Prediction- While Mike Mussina has absolutely dominated the Twins throughout his career, the Twins will defeat him in both Games 1 and 4 in tense pitching-duels with Johan Santana. Brad Radke will provide seven solid innings while the Twins hitters will knock around Andy Pettitte as the Twins take Game 2 as well. Roger Clemens will out-pitch Kyle Lohse in Game 3, as the Yankees will stave off elimination on Saturday. However, the Twins strong starting pitching and LaTroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado will keep the Yankees at bay.
Twins in 4!
Ok, so the Yankees won in 4 games. What can we conclude from what occurred? A) Luis Rivas is absolutely worthless; B) LaTroy Hawkins is not a great fielder; C) the Yankees can really pitch; D) Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams are terrible defensively; and, E) do not believe every prediction I make
Here were some other previews of the series: