In his nine seasons as the General Manager of the Minnesota Twins, Terry Ryan has earned a reputation for making shrewd trades on a limited budget. In fact, Ryan was named the 2002 Sporting News Executive of the Year for his hard word in assembling the first American League Central Division champions from Minnesota. His imprint is noticeable as several of the core players of the current team were acquired through trades such as Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, and Cristian Guzman. During the first half of his time as GM, Ryan made several trades that were perceived as salary dumps. However, the Twins position has changed during Ryan’s tenure to one of a struggling team with limited finances to a team a few pieces away from being complete. Has Ryan successfully transitioned along with the team? Was Ryan even that great in the first place? What I aim to do is analyze the trades which Ryan has made, and attempt to determine whether or not his reputation as an astute judge of baseball ability is well-earned. Thus, this will be divided into sections to illustrate when Ryan was making salary dumps and when he was trying to bolster an already solid team.
The Other Trades
There trades fall into several categories, but none of the three that have already been covered. For example, there are several trades in which the Twins were simply out of roster spots and wanted to restock the farm system with their extra players. There are also trades in which the team traded a prospect away straight up for another prospect.
Verdict: Even, after signing Steinbach, Terry Ryan moved Walbeck because he knew that he was expendable. While Walbeck has bounced around with several teams, he has at least proven that he can fill the “switch-hitting backup catcher” role in the Majors whenever a team has that need.
Verdict: Even, Ochoa has been the more productive player since the trade and he is the one still in the league. However, the team gave up on him quickly and he has never reached the potential many envisioned from him.
After three decent, but injury plagued seasons in middle relief for the Twins, Dan Naulty was traded to the Yankees for a prospect. Naulty pitched in just thirty-two games for New York but was eleven RARP before being traded to the Dodgers. He has been out of the big leagues since 1999, and Allen Butler has never appeared in the majors.
Verdict: Even, the Twins wanted to continue their youth movement in 1999. Thus, Naulty was the odd-man-out and Terry Ryan traded him for a prospect. Neither really had much of a career after the trade.
Verdict: Bad, the Twins and Terry Ryan gave up on Alex Ochoa way to early, and he was much better the next two seasons than the young Chad Allen, Jacque Jones and Torii Hunter.
Verdict: Excellent, this is definitely one of the shining moments of Terry Ryan’s career and of the scouting ability of the Twins. Santana is now one of the most valuable commodities in the game and the Twins were able to get him for very little.
Todd Walker’s defense was so bad that some of the Twins’ starting pitchers asked Tom Kelly not to start him when they pitched. He feuded with Kelly and was sent to Triple A before the trade. Since the trade he has been 12.1 WARP, and this year was 21.6 RARP while batting second for the Boston Red Sox. He was outstanding in the postseason this year, as well. Butch Huskey was added with Walker because he did not really have a role with the Twins. He hit 348/565/432 in 2000, but has not been in the majors since.
Todd Sears got lost in the shuffle among the many Twins minor league first basemen as he was passed by Doug Mientkiewicz on the depth chart. This season he finally was given an opportunity and played fairly well in May, but he was too similar to Mientkiewicz to have a role on the Twins.
Verdict: Even, something had to be done about Todd Walker as he had no future in the organization. Terry Ryan really made the best of a bad situation by getting a solid prospect. The reasons behind this trade are similar to Billy Beane’s John F. Mabry trade in 2002, but the result was not nearly as good.
Verdict: Even, the Twins had no room for Moeller and traded him to fill an organizational weakness. While Moeller may have provided better production than Tom Prince, the Twins did not want to use two inexperienced catchers in 2001. This trade would actually slot a little better if there was a level between even and poor.
Verdict: Good, Ryan traded a very redundant player in Buchanan for a promising prospect that appears to have a decent shot at a Major League job within two years.
In Single A Fort Myers, Matt Yeatman started 25 games and had a 5.16 ERA in 129 innings. He struck out 7.0/9 innings and walked 4.5/9. While Yeatman is still just twenty-one, he needs to improve his control to have a major league career. Oakes, on the other hand, had an absolutely miserable season with Single A Quad Cities. He had a 9.45 ERA while walking 10.1/9 innings and striking out 5.7/9. His future looks pretty bleak, but stranger things have happened.
Verdict: Bad, neither Yeatman nor Oakes appear to have much of a future with the Twins. Kinney, however, logged a full season in the Brewers rotation and should remain there for a few seasons. There is a very good chance Javier Valentin will have a more productive Major League career in the long run than either of the two prospects.
Verdict: Bad, in this case Ryan held onto Sears for too long and finally settled for a poor offer. It was no secret that Sears had no role in Minnesota, but he would probably have fetched more in return if he had been traded in May or June when he was producing off of the Twins’ bench. Instead, Ryan waited until it was abundantly clear that Sears served no purpose in Minnesota.
Conclusion
It took several years, but Terry Ryan finally had his first good trade in 1996 when he acquired David Ortiz for Dave Hollins. However, after that trade Terry Ryan really did a great job of acquiring young prospects for veterans. In most of the trades he was trading a player that was barely worth more than a non-roster invite at the beginning of spring training which makes getting anything of value exceptional. In the Knoblauch and second Aguilera trade, Ryan acquired players who would become above average Major Leaguers and very solid contributors to the contending Twins teams of the past few seasons. Any GM that can turn a month of Roberto Kelly, Hector Carrasco or Orlando Merced into a major league player deserves some commendation for his work.
However, his record since 2001 in trades specifically designed to bolster the team is not nearly as good. The recent Shannon Stewart trade definitely paid dividends, but otherwise he has not been very good. In one trade he crippled an already struggling offense in order to further boost the already solid starting rotation. In the other two, he acquired relief pitchers who had no impact on the team, and who could have been had for much less than he offered.
Finally, there are the trades that do not really fall into a rebuilding or contending category. Most of these trades involved some roster shuffling or trading from organizational strengths to full weaknesses, but there was one notable exception. The trade for Johan Santana after the 1999 season will always be considered one of Ryan’s shrewdest acquisitions. Not only did Houston not have room for Santana, but the Marlins also passed on his rights for the mere sum of $50,000. It is almost mind-boggling that one of the best young pitchers in baseball could be acquired for such a small sum, and Ryan should be lauded for the trade.
Thus, Terry Ryan has accumulated a great resume as a rebuilding General Manager. When he has a lot of room to maneuver in his trades, he has acquired many players who have developed into solid Major Leaguers. For example, David Ortiz, Joe Mays and Cristian Guzman were all plucked from the low minors and have all had periods of extended success in the majors. However, Ryan has not done a great job of addressing the needs of the Twins midseason in an attempt to help push the team to the postseason. The longer the Twins remain a viable contender in the American League Central, the more chances that he has to improve his poor track record. One factor that may help Twins fans remain optimistic is that it took him three years to begin making good trades when trading his veterans. Now that he has had three years presiding over a contending team, maybe he will adapt in that role as well.