In his nine seasons as the General Manager of the Minnesota Twins, Terry Ryan has earned a reputation for making shrewd trades on a limited budget. In fact, Ryan was named the 2002 Sporting News Executive of the Year for his hard word in assembling the first American League Central Division champions from Minnesota. His imprint is noticeable as several of the core players of the current team were acquired through trades such as Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, and Cristian Guzman. During the first half of his time as GM, Ryan made several trades that were perceived as salary dumps. However, the Twins position has changed during Ryan’s tenure to one of a struggling team with limited finances to a team a few pieces away from being complete. Has Ryan successfully transitioned along with the team? Was Ryan even that great in the first place? What I aim to do is analyze the trades which Ryan has made, and attempt to determine whether or not his reputation as an astute judge of baseball ability is well-earned. Thus, this will be divided into sections to illustrate when Ryan was making salary dumps and when he was trying to bolster an already solid team.
The Scott Stahoviak Era
While Scott Stahoviak was not a Twin for the duration of the time the team struggled, he played long enough to scar the memories of their fans. He is the perfect example of why this team struggled as he was a highly touted college player that turned into a tremendous flop with a team in dire need of help. If you prefer, this could also be the Matt Walbeck Era. Anyway, during this time period, from the day Ryan was promoted to replace Andy McPhail through the end of the 2000 season, the Twins were consistently a bottom-dwelling team relying on retreads and prospects. Seeing no hope, Carl Pohlad rarely granted Ryan permission to increase the payroll for players not born in the state of Minnesota. Thus, the Twins seemed doomed to continue to struggle for a long, long time. Because of this context, the trades Terry Ryan made during this era must be judged both in their ability to lower the Twins payroll and their young prospects that would be acquired in the hopes that some would be able to stick as bona fide Major Leaguers.
Rather than just analyzing this trade straight-up, one must remember that the Twins resigned Rick Aguilera after the 1995 season (in the misguided belief that he could be a starting pitcher). Thus, they turned three months of Rick Aguilera into two and a half league average innings until the roof caved in on Rodriguez. In his career as a Twin (including 1998), Rodriguez was a combined 52 Runs Above Average.
Verdict: Even, Aguilera helped pitch the Red Sox into the playoffs while the Twins got a league-average pitcher (better than many who they were trotting out to the mound during this time) for the next three seasons.
In return for Erickson the Twins received two decent prospects. Scott Klingenbeck joined the Twins immediately but was atrocious. In his two seasons with the team, he pitched in 28 games with an 8.30 ERA in 77 innings. The Twins gave up on him in April of 1997 and he briefly pitched for the Reds the next season. After the conclusion of the 1995 season, Bartee was picked by the Detroit Tigers in the Rule V Draft and never played an inning as a Twin. After remaining in the majors in 1996 as a Rule V pick, Bartee has bounced around and was most recently in the majors with the Rockies in 2001. For his career, he has been worth 0.7 WARP.
Verdict: Terrible, in exchange for a league average starter Ryan acquired 77 innings of awful pitching. While Erickson was pitching poorly with the Twins, surely at least one Major League caliber player could have been acquired for a twenty-seven year old starting pitcher who had once won twenty games in a season.
In return, the Ron Coomer was the only player involved in the trade to ever be an All-Star (and I mean that as a criticism of the structure of the game). Coomer produced about 15 WARP in his five-plus seasons with the Twins. Coomer was one of the more consistent Twins in the late-1990s bouncing back and forth between third and first base. Greg Hansell spent one season in the Twins bullpen and was basically a replacement level pitcher before moving on to the Brewers organization. Much like Hansell, Jose Parra also provided replacement level pitching to the Twins and was also discarded after the 1996 season. Chris Latham played as a Twin in parts of three seasons as both a September call-up and fifth-outfielder. He was worth 0.1 WARP before being dumped to Toronto in a previously mentioned trade.
Verdict: Poor, the Twins traded a solid starting pitcher and decent left-handed reliever for Ron Coomer and a cast of replacement players. Coomer was one of the Twins few offensive weapons in the late 1990s despite being below average for his position. Parra, Hansell and Latham were essentially useless to the Twins and their spots could have just as easily been filled by minor league veterans.
David Ortiz was acquired as a twenty-year old slugger in single A and began destroy the ball after entering the Twins organization. He was promoted from Single A all the way to the Major Leagues in 1997 and was able to hold his own during his September tryout against big league pitching. His work ethic and sloppy defense caused him to bounce back and forth between the majors and minors the next few seasons and he finally stuck in 2000. In the next three years, Ortiz was a solid member of the Twins but frequently missed time with many injuries. The Twins declined to offer him arbitration after 2002, and he has become a beloved member of the Red Sox this past season. As a Twin, Ortiz contributed 10.2 WARP, and he was 44.1 Runs Above a Replacement Player this past season.
Verdict: Good, Ryan was able to acquire a low-level prospect that blossomed immediately after joining the Twins. While Ortiz never had a complete season until finally leaving the team, he was a solid contributor for several seasons, beloved in the clubhouse, and much more valuable than one more month of Dave Hollins.
Verdict: Even, Colbrunn did not really develop into an offensive force for another two seasons and did not have a role in Minnesota anyway. While Lewis did not pan out, Ryan made the correct decision in flipping Colbrunn for a prospect.
Joe Mays has spent the past five seasons primarily with the Twins and his production has ranged from terrible (2003) to outstanding (2001). From 1999-2002, Mays went 34-47 but posted an ERA ten percent better than league average. In 2003, Mays pitched with an injury ultimately leading to Tommy John Surgery and was awful providing 2.1 runs worse than replacement level. However, before this season he was worth 145 Runs Above Replacement Level. The other prospect, Jeromy Palki, has never appeared in the majors.
Verdict: Excellent, Ryan was able to turn one month of Roberto Kelly into an above average Major League pitcher. While Mays has struggled the past two years, he was exceptional when healthy back in 2001. That year he was one of the top ten starting pitchers in all of baseball.
Verdict: Even, Ryan traded a very expendable commodity for a prospect that did not happen to work out. Myers’ career renaissance happened occurred with his fifth team since leaving the Twins so they were not the only ones to pass on him.
Three of the prospects the Twins received have become steady contributors to Major League rosters. Eric Milton, the most highly rated prospect, has become a league average starting pitcher. Through 2002, his ERA was virtually the same as the league average during his career. The highlight of his career was his no-hitter in 1999, while the biggest low-point was his injury problems during the last eighteen months as he has tried to hide injuries several times. For his career, Milton has been 182 Runs Above a Replacement Player.
Cristian Guzman made the Twins roster as a twenty-one year old shortstop in 1999. By 2001, he was driving the ball to the gaps and using his incredible speed to leg out triples. He was easily the Twins’ MVP during the first half of 2001. However, he has been maddeningly inconsistent since an injury suffered in July 2001. While he can be a productive shortstop for stretches at a time, he frequently will give away at bats and look absolutely clueless at the plate. For 1999-2002 he was worth 9.7 WARP, but this year he was barely above replacement level. Brian Buchanan was another of the Twins’ gazillion corner outfielders and was traded to San Diego during the middle of the 2002 season. He was a good right-handed bat off of the bench and provides excellent power. This year he was worth 10.8 runs more than a replacement player and is a good option to have on the bench. Danny Mota has never reached the majors, and the cash was obviously helpful to poor, old Carl Pohlad who was struggling to get by.
Verdict: Excellent, Terry Ryan turned one regular Major Leaguer into three contributors to the team that surprised baseball during 2001. As Knoblauch declined, three players for whom he was traded helped post the first winning season in Minnesota in nearly a decade. As Rob Neyer noted while praising the Knoblauch trade, “[I]f Knoblauch hadn’t wanted out of Minnesota, the Twins wouldn’t have made their oh-so-surprising run for the division title.”
Matt Kinney was an occasional member of the Twins starting rotation in 2000 and 2002. Both times he was just below league average, but above replacement level. Last year, the Twins traded him to Milwaukee. With the Brewers this year, Kinney started off well but then struggled during most of the season. He ended the year 4.6 runs below replacement level but did provide 190 innings for the team. John Barnes played for the Twins briefly in both 2000 and 2001 as an extra outfielder. Joe Thomas has never appeared in the majors.
Verdict: Even, Terry Ryan was able to trade two former cast-offs for prospects. He was probably not going to resign either player anyway, so he basically traded two-months of both for potential replacements for them. While John Barnes did not work out, Matt Kinney was a promising pitcher who left the organization in a roster-crunch.
Verdict: Even, Mike Morgan still had a little mileage left on his arm, but the Cubs did not benefit from it. Scott Downs was not in the Twins’ organization long enough for him to make an impact.
Kyle Lohse was just twenty when the trade occurred and he went 3-18 in AA in 2000. However, he joined the Twins in mid-2001 and has not returned to the minors. He was overmatched during his first year, but he has become a quality major league starter. While he still is wildly inconsistent, he has been league average, and thirty runs above replacement level, in each of the past two seasons. The future looks bright for Lohse as he is just twenty-five, has already been league average and has not been overworked or abused by Ron Gardenhire. Jason Ryan pitched briefly with the Twins in 1999 and 2000 and was six runs above replacement level in sixty innings for his career.
Verdict: Excellent, Kyle Lohse has been extremely valuable to the Twins the past two seasons while Aguilera has been out of the league for three years. While Downs and Ryan have basically washed each other out, Lohse has easily had more value as a solid starting pitcher of a contending team than Aguilera had as a closer for a fledgling team.
Verdict: Good, even though de los Santos never panned out, Terry Ryan was able to get a prospect for a role player. What makes it even more remarkable is that he managed to trade Cummings back to the same team that released him just one season earlier.
Verdict: Excellent, Terry Ryan absolutely robbed Dan Duquette in this trade. While Carrasco pitched much worse than expected with the Red Sox, he still was a fairly replaceable spare part. Lew Ford continues to develop into a better player and Terry Ryan basically acquired him for free. What makes the trade even better is that the Twins promptly resigned Carrasco after he was released by the Blue Jays the next March.