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posted on May 21, 2004
Where is the Defense?
For as long as I can remember, the Twins have been built on the
fundamentals of defense and pitching. While other teams have
focused on the power hitting explosion of the past fifteen years,
the Twins continue to employ players that cover a lot of range
defensively and pitchers who will not walk any batters. For
some time, this formula has proven to be very successful and its
emphasis is apparent through the minor leagues.
While the Oakland A's made headlines stressing on base percentage,
the Twins have stressed the idea of making batters hit their way on
base. Brad Radke, Rick Reed, Joe Mays, Kenny Rogers and Eric
Milton all were known as control pitchers. In fact, Kyle Lohse
walked just 45 batters in 201 innings last season - he has walked
64% as many batters in just 25% of the innings.
Anyway, the starting pitching (with the exception of Lohse) is again
doing an excellent job of throwing strikes. Brad Radke is
leading the way by walking just one batter for every 11 innings.
Seth Greisinger and Johan Santana are averaging less than a walk for
every three innings and Carlos Silva has also been stingy by
allowing just 9 walks in almost 50 innings of work.
However, the flip side of the formula for Twins success has gone
missing this season. The Twins are doing their best to prove
the saying "defense never goes on slumps" is actually wrong.
The team has committed 36 errors in just 40 games. The team
committed just 87 errors in all of the 2003 season. The
biggest culprits this year have been Cristian Guzman, Michael
Cuddyer and the pitching staff.
Last year, Guzman committed just 11 errors and had a Range Factor
twelve percent worse than the league average. This year,
Guzman has committed 7 errors already (and has benefited from
generous scorekeepers as well because there have been some
questionable plays that were ruled hits).
Michael Cuddyer has spelled Corey Koskie at third base frequently
this year, especially now that Koskie is on the Disabled List with a
strained sternum. Cuddyer has committed six errors at third
base and the team as a whole has committed nine errors at the hot
corner, almost equal to last season's total of twelve.
Finally, the pitching staff has committed seven errors - including
two by both Seth Greisinger and Juan Rincon.
In addition to the increase in errors, the team is converting a
terrible number of balls into play into outs. Using the
Hardball
Times' stats page, we can look at each individual pitcher's
Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER). This measures the proportion
of balls in play (not homeruns) that a pitcher's defense
successfully converted into outs.
Through May 15th, the Twins had the worst DER in the American League
converting just 66.3% of balls in play into outs. In fact,
yesterday's game was a microcosm of this issue.
Yesterday, Seth Greisinger allowed hits on 9 of 18 balls in play; in
addition, the defense committed two errors behind him. By
normalizing the expected conditions, Greisinger should have expected
to get three more outs out the balls he put into play (not counting
the two errors). Compare these two lines:
IP H R ER BB K HR
Possible 5.2 6 3 3 2 1 1
Actual 4 10 7 3 2 1 1
With a little more help from his defense Seth Greisinger would have
been one out from providing the team with a quality start and
keeping the score tied through six innings. Instead, the
defense let the team down.
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posted on May 6, 2004
The Silva Method
Since I last wrote about the team, the Twins
lost three straight games before last night's victory. Carlos
Silva cruised by yesterday and did not lose a shutout until the
eighth inning of a 5-1 win. His most notable accomplishment
has been his 5-0 record which has pushed his career mark up to 13-1.
However, I think that there are two even more important things to
note about his performance.
First, he has a K/BB ratio of 2.00 despite a
strikeout rate well below the league average. Two years ago,
he had a ratio of 1.86 so it is not unreasonable to believe that he
can stay near this level. As Rick Reed, Brad Radke and
countless others have shown, simply by forcing batters to make
contact a pitcher has a decent shot at success.
Second, he is pitching more efficiently and
deeper into games with each start. Here are his pitches /
inning totals from his six starts: 14.5, 16.4, 15.5, 14.7, 13.8, and
13.4. His 14.7 pitches / inning is a more efficient total than
the other Twins starters. In fact, Silva ranks 14th in the
Majors in pitches per inning behind some pretty good pitchers (like
Greg Maddux, Matt Morris, Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, C.C. Sabathia,
and Javier Vazquez).
I do not not how much longer Silva can
continue to be the Ace of the team. However, I think that it
is not unreasonable to expect his ERA to ultimately end up between
3.75 and 4.25. Thus, for about 1/26th of the cost, the Twins
will be getting production very similar to that of Eric Milton.
Throw in Nick Punto and the trade becomes a steal for the Twins.
Oh, and here's a link to the real
Silva Method, in case
you were curious.
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posted on May 1, 2004
Book Break
There are a couple of literary chains floating
through the baseball blogsphere so I have decided to throw my hat
into it. I stumbled onto both of them from the
Pearly Gates (while
researching the current Twins opponent). Anyway, here's the
first one:
New York packed an immense populace of the poor into noisome
tenements, giving the city a death rate nearly twice as high as
London.
The second chain is simply to copy the list of books and mark the
ones I have read in bold.
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posted on May 1, 2004
One Month Grades: Infield
To continue the project I started yesterday, I
will be grading the infield of the Minnesota Twins today. I
must stress that these grades are based on how well the players have
performed based on my expectations (that is, Johan Santana is held
to a higher standard than Terry Mulholland). If you disagree
with any of my choices, please let me know in the comments section
at the bottom of the page.
Joe Mauer: Get the plaque in
Cooperstown ready. Mauer has a 1583 career OPS after one
month! All humor aside, the Twins franchise looked cursed
after Mauer tore his meniscus in his second career game, but the
team has been able to get by in his absence. I am more than
willing to sacrifice 20 games in 2004 (i.e. not rushing him back in
the next week or two) for 100 healthy games in 2005-09.
Grade: Incomplete.
Henry Blanco: Hammerin' Hank was on
fire the ten days of the season but has begun cooling off. He
has just five hits (including just one double) in the past nine
games while drawing one walk. In fact, since April 17, he has
an OPS of just 407. He filled in extremely well when both
Mauer and LeCroy first were injured, but he is regressing to his
established level of sucktitude and also is probably exhausted from
playing in all but three games. I'm also marking him down
slightly in his grade because of his terrible base-running.
Every other game it seems as if he's running into an out.
Grade: B+.
Rob Bowen: Gardenhire's reluctance to
use Bowen has left him rotting on the bench and in the bullpen.
Grade: C.
Doug Mientkiewicz: Mr.
Consistency. I expect his on base and slugging percentages to
improve slightly throughout the course of the year, but he has
provided exactly what has been expected of him. My only
complaint is his fanaticism about remaining in the lineup every day
rather than resting his bumps and bruises once a week.
Grade: B+.
Luis Rivas: He's playing terribly
again. Plus, if you take away his career-long Babe Ruth
impression against the Royals and he looks even worse. He has
not had a hit in almost two weeks, and he cannot get by solely on
his mediocre glove. Grade: D-.
Nick Punto: When I play my
roommate in PS2, I notice that Nick Punto is about half of the size
and weight of Justin Morneau on the game. He has virtually no
power, but has demonstrated that he understands the value of plate
discipline. He is slowly squeezing Rivas out of playing time,
with his tireless hustle. Basically, he is Mark Madsen minus a
foot. Grade: A.
Cristian Guzman: I just cannot
give up on this guy. His defense was terrible last weekend,
but I still hope he can put it together. When he is on, he is
more exciting to watch than any other player in baseball.
Unfortunately, he is never on. He has been hitting a pretty
empty .295 but that's better than an empty .260. The
disappearance of his line drives after 2001 is even more baffling
than the disappearance of WMD in Iraq. Grade: B-.
Corey Koskie: The Crazy Canadian has
regained the power that vanished last summer. He hit a
moon-shot yesterday and he still has excellent plate discipline.
Gardenhire has done a great job of resting him, so I hope his
brittle body does not wither after the All-Star Break after
receiving extra attention this year. Grade: A-.
Michael Cuddyer: Will he ever
fulfill his potential? If so, will it happen with the Twins?
How long can the team afford to wait for him to perform?
Cuddyer was one of the heroes on Opening Day, but then went into a
funk. In his last game, he homered and was robbed of a double
by Toronto's Eric Hinske, so maybe he is making strides.
Otherwise, he is being passed on the organization's totem pole by
other prospects. To make matters worse, he has struggled
defensively as Koskie's platoon-mate and has probably forced
Gardenhire and Terry Ryan his ability to play the position full-time
if Koskie walks as a free agent this fall. Grade: C-.
Matthew LeCroy: He must be frustrated
because the team is clicking in his absence. Hopefully his
time on the DL will help heal his strained fat, and allow him to
play a big role for the Twins in the last two-thirds of the season.
Even though LeCroy is my favorite Twin, I think his days in the
organization are numbered. Grade: Incomplete.
So, how do I fare as an arbiter. Too easy, too harsh?
Let me know in the comments section on any decisions with which you
disagree. In the final installation, I'll break down the
outfielders.
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