posted on March 21, 2004
The 12th Pitcher
Rick Helling has just been diagnosed with a
fractured leg suffered after being hit by a line drive in his last
start. I certainly wish Helling the best and do not wish injury on
anyone (besides all members of my enemies list), but this definitely
helps the Twins continue to sort out their pitching staff. First,
it probably opens up the fifth starter's spot for a month. This new
starting pitcher will probably be one of the players fighting for
the last spot in the bullpen; thus, it will trickle down and open up
another spot in the pen.
The Twins might really want to consider using a
four-man rotation for the reasons that the Twins Geek outlined
here. However, the Twins have been a very conservative team
with its pitching staff for my entire life so I fully expect the
starters to pitch in a five-man rotation. Brad Thomas, Sean
Douglass, Grant Balfour, Peter Munro, Carlos Pulido, Seth Greisinger
and Joe Roa are the people that were competing for the last spot of
the bullpen. Now there is an extra roster space, and one of those
seven pitchers (or Juan Rincon) will be thrust into the starting
rotation.
I hoped at the start of Spring Training that the
Twins would open the year with Grant Balfour in the starting
rotation and they just might have stumbled into that situation. He
pitched well yesterday and has yet to allow a run this Spring. I
really think that Sean Douglass and Brad Thomas are battling for the
last bullpen spot now. Thomas probably two advantages: he's
left-handed and he's from the organization so they may be more
reluctant for try to pass him through waivers. However, he also has
been ineffective during his short Major League career and has
allowed nearly two baserunners per inning thus far this Spring.
If either Douglass or Thomas does not make the
roster, they would need to pass through waivers meaning that another
team may claim them. Thus, the Twins face a very important decision
in the next two weeks. It seems that Aaron Fultz has secured a spot
in the bullpen which means that the Twins do not really need another
lefty. However, they kept three left-handed pitchers in the bullpen
for half of last season before finally moving Johan Santana into the
rotation so it is hard to predict what they are thinking.
The timetable for Helling's return seems to be about
four weeks. Thus, the Twins can continue to sort out this problem
during the first few weeks of the season. As long as Grant Balfour
has a spot on the pitching staff, then I will defer to the Twins
about their other choices at the start of the year. Then the Twins
can let that last spot in the pen be an open tryout and maybe even
consider bringing Mike Nakamura back into the mix as the season
progresses.
Finally, the Twins have historically done a great
job filling out the bullpen with cheap options. Hector Carrasco,
Bob Wells, and Greg Swindell are just a few examples of players who
drastically out performed expectations while with the team. It
would not surprise me at all to see the bullpen, considered by many
to be a weakness this season, become one of the team's real
strengths as the season progresses. I can't wait to see it all play
out.
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posted on March 9, 2004
Matthew LeCroy = Rodney
Dangerfield?
I feel sorry for Matt LeCroy. He has quietly done whatever he
has been asked by the Twins organization, but he always seems to be
the odd man out. After absolutely mashing AAA pitching in 2001
and posting a 1204 OPS with the team at the end of the season, he
found himself being yo-yoed back and forth between Edmonton and
Minnesota in 2002. Proving his 2001 season was no fluke,
LeCroy pounded the AAA pitching that season to the tune of a 1021
OPS. During his time on the Twins' roster that year, he was
one of several players spelling David Ortiz at DH.
After Ortiz's release last year, LeCroy was handed the full-time job
as the Twins' DH. Of course, basically every other player
messed that up and the position was a merry-go-round in 2003.
In April, a rib injury prevented Bobby Kielty from playing defense
so he played DH predominantly. By the time Kielty had healed,
Dustan Mohr was in the midst of an insanely hot May so Kielty and
LeCroy split time the rest of the month.
LeCroy then found himself sitting during the early portion of June
as the Twins had no use for a designated hitter during inter-league
play. Then the Twins brought Justin Morneau up from the minors
and allowed him to start the majority of games for the next few
weeks. After Morneau began to struggle, LeCroy finally began
to see some consistent playing time. Of course, that ended by
the end of July as Jacque Jones remained in the lineup despite his
inability to play in the field due to a pulled hamstring.
Finally, on August 18, Matthew LeCroy found himself in the starting
lineup to stay (of course, he was playing first base while Doug
Mientkiewicz nursed an injury for a few days).. Down the
stretch of this heated pennant race, he performed well and really
bumped up his plate discipline. After drawing just 14 walks
through the first 125 games of the season, LeCroy drew 11 in the
final 37. His .369 on base percentage in September was his highest
total for any month of the season despite having him having his lowest batting
average of any month all year at the same time.
He has accumulated a 905 OPS against lefties the past three seasons,
and he really improved against right-handed pitchers last season.
Unfortunately, he still does not seem to have earned a full-time
spot. This is particularly troubling because he has been my
favorite Twin ever since his Major League debut, but he really is
just in the wrong organization.
I think the Twins should look to trade LeCroy soon (much like Brian Buchanan in
2002). I expected this upcoming year to be his final season with the
Twins because he is holding down the position until Justin Morneau is ready in 2005.
However, Morneau's fast start in Spring Training may have
accelerated LeCroy's departure. Morneau is already 8-for-19
with three extra base hits. It will be very difficult for the
Twins to let Morneau spend time in Rochester this year if he is
clearly ready for the Majors. Sadly, LeCroy looks like he is
about to be boxed out of some playing time again.
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posted on March 6, 2004
Who Plays Center?
Yesterday, Torii Hunter sprained his wrist during a Spring Training
game against the Cincinnati Reds. Thankfully, the X-rays were
negative and so Hunter is not looking at missing an extended period
of time. However, his injury raises the question, “Who plays
centerfield if Hunter suffers an injury?”
The most obvious solution is to simply plug Lew
Ford into the position everyday. Ford would provide a substantial
improvement over Hunter in terms of ability to reach base. However,
Ford also has a lot less range defensively and does not possess as
much pure power. In all honesty, I would rather have Ford at the
plate than Hunter in a crucial situation but that may just be
because I am tired of Hunter offering a half-hearted check-swing at
two sliders in the dirt before grounding into a double play.
Mike Ryan could also play centerfield, but he
does not have the offensive upside as Lew Ford. However, he does
provide a left-handed bat with a little more power (and a lot less
plate discipline) so there is a pretty good chance that he could get
on Ron Gardenhire’s “good side”.
Ron Gardenhire could also get creative and
slide Jacque Jones back into the position he occupied while Hunter
was still in the minors. Jacque has great range and a strong, but
erratic arm and was an above-average defensive centerfielder
according to most defensive metrics. A platoon of Jacque Jones and
Lew Ford in centerfield would be extremely productive and Jones
could stay in defensively at the end of the games. This move also
has an added benefit of opening up at-bats in right field. Michael
Cuddyer would seem to be the most likely candidate to receive these
new at-bats, but a player could be called up from the minors to fill
that role as well.
In fact, now that the situation has been
covered, it becomes pretty obvious that Torii Hunter is not
that valuable to the Twins. If he was removed from the
lineup, any combination of Lew Ford, Michael Cuddyer, Mike Restovich
and Mike Ryan would be able to step in and provide virtually similar
offensive production. Plus, Jacque Jones is not that much of a
defensive downgrade from Hunter defensively so the team would not be
hurt in that way either. When it becomes apparent just how many
choices the team has for the outfielder, Torii Hunter’s contract
really stands out as being completely unnecessary.
In addition, other teams should observe this
glut of talent and the Twins should be able to work out at least one
trade to alleviate the logjam while also filling the organization
with some much needed middle infield talent or some pitching
prospects. In fact, if other teams value Torii Hunter extremely
highly, it might be worth the public relations hit to trade him. At
the very least, the option must be explored.
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posted on March 2, 2004
The X Factor: J.D. Durbin
One of the biggest questions the Twins must answer during Spring
Training is where J.D. Durbin will pitch this season. There are
really three possible solutions: in the Twins’ starting rotation, in
the Twins’ bullpen, or in the rotation at AAA Rochester. Which of
these is the best choice?
Durbin has accumulated a remarkable 31-11 minor
league record. Last year, he had 6.9 K/9 innings and 2.7 K/BB while
going 15-5 with a 3.12 ERA split between Fort Myers and New
Britain. He is easily the best starting pitching prospect in the
Twins organization and has made it known that he wants to be on the
team when Spring Training breaks.
One cause for concern is his decreasing
strikeout rate. In the past three years, he has accumulated K/9
totals of 10.4, 9.1 to 6.9. I have not read about any injury
problems that have plagued him so I am curious to know what
explanation exists for the significant drop.
On the other hand, Durbin has improved his
control significantly as his BB/9 totals have dropped from 4.5, 2.9
to 2.5. It is very possible that Durbin has simply learned to be
more efficient with his pitches and is forcing batters to put more
balls in play.
As the
TwinsGeek noted, the Twins have several
candidates for spots on the pitching staff that are out of options.
Because of that, I would rather let J.D. Durbin spend time in AAA
while the other Twins choices pitch their way on or off of the staff
during the first. This way, Durbin can still be taking another step
forward in the minor leagues and will be available towards the end
of the summer. Plus, by not bring Durbin north with the team, his
service clock will not begin which gives the Twins one extra season
of fixed cost and delays his chances for arbitration and free
agency.
However, if Durbin has an amazing spring, I
would have no problem with him filling the role of fifth starter.
If the other options such as Sean Douglass struggle, then the Twins
should not wait to improve the team. The American League Central
will be a fierce battle and Twins cannot afford to waste starts on
clearly inferior players. While Earl Weaver preferred to break in
rookies as relief pitchers, I believe that if the Twins feel Durbin
is ready for the Major Leagues, then Durbin should be starting.
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