When Terry Mulholland entered the Twins starting rotation last
month, many of the Twins fans were very skeptical. Why, they
asked, was the organization unable to find a fifth starter who was
not a member of the AARP? Mulholland has done his best Tommy
John impression to silence his critics, but the Twins fan base is
still frustrated with the state of the starting pitching. Of
course, their complaint is aimed at fourth starter Kyle Lohse.
Before the season began, I talked up Kyle Lohse to all of my friends
as a sleeper pick in fantasy leagues. I really thought that he
was going to explode this year and finally put it together. He
had stretches in 2003 in which he looked absolutely amazing.
In fact, less than a month ago he pitched a shutout against the AAA
Kansas City Royals. Since that game, however, he has been
awful.
This season is Lohse's third complete year in the starting rotation.
What has happened to him?
|
Year |
IP |
H |
R |
HR |
BB |
K |
K/BB |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
HR/9 |
|
2002 |
180.2 |
181 |
92 |
26 |
70 |
124 |
1.77 |
3.50 |
6.19 |
1.30 |
|
2003 |
201 |
211 |
107 |
28 |
45 |
130 |
2.89 |
2.01 |
5.82 |
1.25 |
|
2004 |
126 |
160 |
82 |
16 |
49 |
65 |
1.33 |
3.50 |
4.64 |
1.14 |
|
Totals |
507.2 |
552 |
281 |
70 |
164 |
319 |
1.95 |
2.91 |
5.66 |
1.24 |
In short, yuck. He has improved his homerun rate, which is
very good news. On the other hand, his strikeout and walk
rates are not promising.
In 2003, Lohse cut down on his strikeouts, but he also pitched
twenty extra innings. I will give him the benefit of the doubt
for the six percent decrease in strikeouts in 2003 by saying he was
making a concerted effort to conserve pitches by using his defense.
Of course, that could be total crap, but we'll never know.
This year he has continued to lose strikeouts. However, they
have absolutely fallen off of a cliff as he has lost twenty percent
of his strikeouts from an already below average rate. Making
batters put the ball in play is not the worst idea.
Unfortunately, Lohse has also watched his walk rate skyrocket this
year. In 75 fewer innings, Lohse has walked four more batters
than in all of 2003. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was more than
halved.
There was another Twin in the past few years who experienced success
with a low strikeout rate. He, too, then watched his below
average strikeout rate plummet even further. In fact, here are
three consecutive seasons for this pitcher:
|
Season |
IP |
H |
R |
HR |
BB |
K |
K/BB |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
HR/9 |
|
X |
160.1 |
193 |
105 |
20 |
67 |
102 |
1.52 |
3.77 |
5.73 |
1.12 |
|
Y |
233.2 |
205 |
87 |
25 |
64 |
123 |
1.92 |
2.47 |
4.75 |
0.96 |
|
Z |
95.1 |
113 |
60 |
14 |
25 |
38 |
1.52 |
2.37 |
3.60 |
1.32 |
|
Totals |
489.1 |
511 |
252 |
59 |
156 |
263 |
1.69 |
2.87 |
4.84 |
1.09 |
Unfortunately, the Twins chose to reward this pitcher with a very
hefty contract after season Y. While Season Z was bad enough,
Z+1 was a nightmare and, of course, Joe Mays has yet to pitch in
season Z+2. Thankfully, the Twins did not rush to reward Kyle
Lohse after his 2003 season.
Unless he finds some strikeouts lying around the American League
stadiums (the way Bert Blyleven claims to have found his curveball),
the long-term for outlook Kyle Lohse is not particularly promising.
After adding in the fact that he is feuding with his manager and
coaching staff about defensive positioning, and he might be out of a
Minnesota uniform sooner rather than later.
Finally, a game started by Lohse very similar to riding a
rollercoaster. There are some ups, some downs and you
occasionally want to vomit afterwards. However, it also has
something that lures you back in and convinces you that the next
time will be even more enjoyable.
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