June 2004 Archives

posted on June 29, 2004

Manic-Depressive

The White Sox come to the Dome tonight to begin a three-game series with the Twins.  Currently, they trail the Twins by one game in the AL Central, but they just acquired the best pitcher who was on the market.  Before the trade, they were more talented than the Twins and their edge just grew slightly.  However, that ignores one point - WHO CARES?

The White Sox have been more talented than the Twins since 2001 and they have yet to finish a season ahead of Minnesota.  Many fans attribute that fact to the Twins playing the "right way" and the White Sox punting defense for offense.  I, on the other hand, could care less why it happens, I just know that it happens. 

Sitting around and waiting for a White Sox collapse is probably not the best way to go through a pennant race.  Last year I was in a state of panic and hysteria as I proclaimed the Twins doomed repeatedly.  However, with patience (and assurance from my girlfriend that it would work out) I watched as the Twins won five straight crucial September games to bury the Sox in the standings. 

I promise not to get so upset, so pessimistic and so convinced that the Twins trying their hardest to alienate me as a fan now that I am blogging much more frequently.  At least not until the Twins are about two games back of the White Sox, then I'll probably break out into hives.

For now, however, the Twins still hold a lead that they do not deserve (and have not deserved for three-plus years).  I'm going to enjoy it for as long as possible.  Of course, I expect that lead to fizzle up by the second inning of the game tonight.  There is nothing like a pennant race to fray my nerves and to throw my life into disarray. 

I wish the Twins could bury the Sox right now and build a large, comfortable lead until October like in 2002.  However, I know that will not happen.  Thus, consider yourself warned.  This blog may suffer from some severe psychological ailments in the late summer and early fall.

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posted on June 28, 2004

Throwing a Counterpunch

Last night, the White Sox acquired Freddy Garcia from the Seattle Mariners.  His 3.20 ERA will slide nicely into their starting rotation replacing their revolving door at the back of their rotation.  They had received 44 innings of 9.20 ERA in 10 starts from Jon Rauch, Dan Wright, Felix Diaz and Arnie Munoz.  In fact, that collective ERA is 287% greater than the 3.20 ERA Garcia had compiled with Seattle.

To complete the deal, however, the White Sox seriously mortgaged their future.  Miguel Olivo, their starting catcher for the past two years, was sent west.  While he might never become an All-Star, he is already basically an average catcher at worst at the age of twenty-five.  In addition to Olivo, the White Sox threw in two prospects.

First, Jeremy Reed, the prize of the White Sox farm system, was probably the most hyped of the three players involved.  He and Jason Kubel are very similar players because they both hit line drives all over the field.  Reed can supposedly play centerfield which makes him even more valuable.

Second, Michael Morse, a AA shortstop, was the other prospect.  He has already been suspended for violating team rules and the White Sox probably soured on him.  He has a pretty good bat, but his a horrible defensive player.  Still, he has some value and the Mariners get a third hitter who could be on their 2005 roster.

I was trying to come up with a similar package in the Twins organization to demonstrate the price the White Sox paid.  I would replace Olivo with Michael Cuddyer, Reed with Justin Morneau and Morse with Luis Maza.  All in all, it seems like a pretty steep price to pay for fewer than 20 Freddy Garcia starts.

The inevitable response among Twins fans is probably to demand a similar move to shore up the team.  Our weaknesses: the bullpen (especially left-handed), first base, middle infield.  There really is not a great middle infield candidate on the market, and the Twins already possess the most eligible first-baseman in professional baseball not currently in the Majors.  That leaves the bullpen.

Jesse Crain is having another solid minor league year in Rochester as the Red Wings' closer.  He has a 3.7 K/BB ratio in 37.1 innings, but has a 3.38 ERA and has allowed the first 5 homeruns of his professional career.  If he can keep the ball in the park, then there is no reason why he should not be added to the Twins bullpen sooner, rather than later.  Plus, Grant Balfour is slowly becoming more and more consistent and may be able to provide some much needed help as well.

The lefthanders in the Twins bullpen leave a lot to be desired.  J.C. Romero recently returned from Rochester.  It is possible that two weeks down in the minors cleared his head and will get him to bounce back to adequate levels.  However, I would not be willing to count on it.  At the same time, Aaron Fultz welcomed his increased role by imploding.  In addition, Terry Mulholland is Terry Mulholland.

One name being mentioned as a possibility is B.J. Ryan of the Baltimore Orioles.  He has a very funky, herky-jerky delivery that reminds me of former Twin Gary Wayne.  Plus he has struck out 52 men in just 39 innings and has yet to allow a homerun.  It was rumored that he might be headed to Anaheim so the Twins may need to act quickly to acquire him.

If I was coming up with a package for the Orioles, I would center it around some of our minor league pitching.  I would offer a package of near-ready talent and future promise to see if a match can be made.  For example, Adam Johnson and Errol Simonitsch might be able to do the trick. 

With the big haul in pitching in the recent draft, I would not be concerned with protecting too many of our fringe pitching prospects.  Instead, basically anybody besides Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, J.D. Durbin and Jesse Crain should be made available.  Given the dearth in pitching in the Baltimore organization, I think a match could be quickly made.

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posted on June 26, 2004

I Swear I'm Not a Stalker

Ever since I moved my website over to this new server in February, one of my favorite things to do is track who visits my site and how people get there.  I love knowing that everyday there are a group of lawyers across the Upper Midwest who think that my site is worth visiting everyday.

Besides the lawyers, I love seeing people from almost every college in Minnesota visit.  Whether the visitor is one of my brother's classmates at Gustavus Adolphus or someone from the University of Minnesota, I am still fascinated everyday that people feel that my words are worth reading. 

To all of you, I just want to say thanks.  I love having a chance to open up and let my thoughts out, and it all is worthwhile when I see how many people actually come and read my writing.

Anyway, I know that you all did not come here to read me get sentimental, so I want to start a monthly tradition.  Near the end of every month, I plan to take the time to take a step back and highlight some of the unusual "searches" via search engine that brought people to my website.  I hope that you feel as puzzled, humored or disturbed as I do at some of the phrases that have referred individuals to one of my pages.

First, I must that 135 searches this month have been for "Shannon Stewart".  I guess that makes sense, except that is 97 more searches than Lew Ford, the next most popular player, has received.  The reason for the high total, I believe, is pretty obvious.  I suggest that you go to Google, search "Shannon Stewart" and then discover why (s)he is so popular.

After Stewart and Ford, I get about five to fifteen searches for pretty much everybody on the Twins major league roster.  Somehow, though, three different people were sent to my site after searching for "rebel backgrounds for web page".  What?  I also had three searches for "Kenny Rogers slot machines".  I guess that one makes sense, but why is someone searching for a slot machine?Here are some of the other strange ones:

Milton Bradley & Doctor Zhivago
Luis Rivas bad
Luis Rivas good
how women were in the process of modernization
cool phone trick
George Greisinger
Gardenhire pathetic
is more difficult to develop left handed pitchers
Terry Ryan retire
what 2 outlaws did robert redford and paul newman portray in a very popular 1969 film? must have both names
toronto star may 23 2004 floating cabin
the best billboards
the living room dayton adult
aroused girls
the metamorphosis kafka microcosm

Finally, someone from Gibraltor has had 281 page hits on my site this month.  This seems a little unusual because I had not had a single hit from Gibraltor in the first four months online.  I'm not calling anybody out, and I hope I don't make you feel uncomfortable, but I would love to know what has drawn your attention to my site enough to make you want to keep coming back.

I'll be back tomorrow afternoon, probably after the Twins game with some real baseball thoughts again.  Hope to see you then.

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posted on June 24, 2004

The Success of Brad

At the end of April, Brad Radke had allowed fewer than 4 runs in just one of his five starts.  He was really scuffling, and allowed a lot of hits.  In fact, on April 21st, he lasted just two innings in a loss against the Tigers.  He ended the month with a 2-2 record and a 5.46 ERA.

In the two months since, Radke has added just two more wins.  However, he has been absolutely remarkable.  In ten starts, he has pitched 68.2 innings and has an ERA of 2.23.  The fact that he has just two wins to show for it boggles my mind.  For whatever reason, the Twins offense just cannot score him any runs.

Here are the runs they have scored in these ten starts: 1, 2, 4, 9, 9, 2, 4, 2, 2, 6.  They are averaging just 4.1 runs/start for him, but if the two 9-run games are removed that number drops to 2.9 runs/start.  In fact, in one of the nine run games, five of the runs were scored in the ninth inning after Radke had been removed.  The only game in which he has been given breathing room was on May 22, when he defeated the White Sox 9-1.

The entire key to Radke's success is forcing the opponents to hit the ball.  He is still allowing a hit per inning pitched, but has gone from stingy to amazing with his control.  He has walked just nine batters all year, and one of them was intentional.  However, Radke has always been prone to allow homeruns.

Through April of this season, Radke had allowed 1.2 homeruns per 9 innings pitched.  Radke led the American League in homeruns allowed in each of his first two seasons.

In his last 68.2 innings, he has allowed just one homerun.  I find it very hard to believe that he can continue to keep the ball in the park at such a great rate, but it is one of the keys to his recent success.

In fact, Radke allowed four homeruns in his first two starts this year.  Since those games, he went 6 starts without allowing a homerun, and is now working on a 7 start streak.  From June 28, 1997 through July 20, 1997 he went five starts without allowing a homerun.  He followed that with a four start streak from July 30 to August 14.

From April 1 through April 17, 2002 and July 18 to August 3, 2001 he also had two four-start stretches without allowing a homerun.  Otherwise, he had never gone longer than three starts. 

I think it is pretty amazing that Radke could pitch for nine years and never go more than four starts between allowing homeruns.  Then this year, he has already eclipsed that feat twice.  In the long run, I think Radke will regress closer to his previous levels, but he should still be better than an average starter and force the Twins to make a very difficult decision about his future following the season.

Update: the third batter of the game, David Ortiz, hit a homerun off of Radke

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posted on June 23, 2004

The Early Signees

Prior to the 2004 draft, the Twins were dropping hints that they would not sign very many players because of their plethora of higher (and naturally, more expensive) picks.  I had read that they were hoping to sign about thirteen to fifteen players out of their fifty-plus selections.  Just two weeks later, and the Twins have already reached their quota.

The following is a quick review of the players who have already signed.

Trevor Plouffe, the first selection, signed very quickly and has already begun playing as the starting shortstop at Elizabethton.  He received a $1.5 million signing bonus and has gone 2 for 8 with a double and a walk while both scoring and driving in one run.

Kyle Waldrop, the twenty-fifth overall pick in the draft, was talked out of attending Vanderbilt University.  He signed extremely quickly, meaning the Twins had obviously approached him prior to the draft to work out a deal, and received a $1 million signing bonus.  He has been assigned to the starting rotation of the Gulf Coast League Twins.

Matthew Fox was the third pitcher selected by the Twins after dominating college batters at Central Florida.  He received a $950,000 signing bonus and has been placed in the starting rotation at Elizabethton.  I look for him to quickly advance up to Quad Cities or across town to Ft. Myers before this season is complete.

Anthony Swarzak was another high school pitcher that was considered a difficult sign.  He received $575,000 to join the Twins and pass up a scholarship to LSU.  Like Waldrop, he has been placed in the starting rotation of the Gulf Coast League Twins.

Eduardo Morlan received $420,000 as the team's third round pick.  I assume that he has been assigned to the Gulf Coast League Twins, but I have not seen confirmation of that in print.

Mark Robinson, a high school center-fielder from California, has also been assigned to the Gulf Coast League squad.

Jeff Schoenbachler, a high school pitcher, will join the Gulf Coast League Twins as well.

Patrick Bryant, was signed away from a commitment to pitch for the University of Alabama.  He accumulated 147 strikeouts to just 29 walks in 88 innings last year.

John Williams, a left-handed pitcher from Middle Tennessee State, joined the team across the state in Elizabethton.  He was the third player from Middle Tennessee State selected by the Twins in the past four years.

J. P. Martinez was coached by Randy Bush while attending the University of New Orleans.  He signed extremely quickly and pitched one inning in relief allowing a walk and unearned run while striking out a batter for Elizabethton.

Jeremy Pickrel has gone 2-for-7 with a double and a walk with Elizabethton while playing designated hitter and right field in the first two games.

Kyle Aselton, a left-handed pitcher from Oregon State, has yet to appear in a game for the Elizabethton Twins.  I don't mean to be rude, but I noticed this from his college bio:  Has not decided on a major...favorite actor is Adam Sandler...favorite restaurant is Safeway Chinese Express."  Sounds like a real bright kid.

Javier Sanchez, a catcher from Notre Dame, has gone 2-for-6 with a triple and a walk in the first two games at Elizabethton.  Unlike Aselton, he seemed to be a little more likely to succeed in the real world after reading an article featuring 20 Questions with Him.  My favorite answer: When I was younger... I wanted to be a pediatrician.  No fair!  When I was younger, I wanted to be a baseball player.

Juan Portes was drafted after dropping out of high school.  He went 2-for-4 with a double in his debut with the Gulf Coast League Twins.

Matt Tolbert was a senior shortstop for Ole Miss.  He has yet to play in the first two games at Elizabethton.  He started all 60 games for Ole Miss last season and hit .290 with two homeruns and 35 RBIs.

Timothey Lahey is the second very educated catcher on the Elizabethton roster after finishing four years at Princeton.  He has yet to appear in a game.

Joseph Abelerra was drafted out of Hopkins High School.  He went 0-for-4 in his first game with the Gulf Coast League Twins.

Deacon Burns has yet to play for Elizabethton.  He hit .476 with 16 homeruns and 15 steals at Northern State University while also playing running back for the football team.

 Landon Burt has gone 3-for-7 with a double and a RBI for Elizabethton.  He was a senior at San Diego State University and led the team in on base percentage while playing primarily in left-field.

Jeffrey Mousser is a right-handed pitcher from Arizona State University and another high school senior.  He has yet to pitch for Elizabethton.

Finally, Robbie Hebert was drafted out of Nicholls State.  He pitched in relief in the first Gulf Coast League Twins game.  He was the 1289 player selected overall, and the Twins forty-third round pick.

Hopefully, three names will be added to this list shortly.  Glen Perkins, a first-round pick from the University of Minnesota is reportedly $40,000 away from an agreement.  Also, Jay Rainville and Jay Sawatski are both still playing for their teams and the Twins have yet to begin negotiations. 

All in all, the Twins inked a lot of players to contracts relatively quickly.  It is noticeable that the Twins took numerous college seniors, most likely because they have the least leverage in negotiations.  Also, many of the unsigned players were community college students who are "draft-and-follows".  That is, if they perform well, the Twins have their rights until next summer's draft.  I would expect that about five or six more players from this draft class end up signing with the team.

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posted on June 21, 2004

Mauer's Power

After the trade of AJ Pierzynski to San Francisco, it became apparent that the Twins were going to entrust Joe Mauer to catch their pitching staff in 2004.  Throughout Spring Training, there was an enormous deal of hype surrounding Mauer's rise to starter with features on ESPN frequently and articles from various sources.  Of course, as soon as the season began, Mauer was injured diving for a bunt and missed the first two months.

In his return from the DL, Mauer has a 244/314/533 line.  While the batting average is a little lower than expected, it was compiled in just 45 at bats.  Thus, two extra singles over the past three weeks would have raised his average up to .289.  Instead of focusing on the lower than expected batting average, I am more curious about the higher than average slugging percentage.

I expected Mauer to hit about 8 to 12 homeruns in a complete season.  Thus, after he was knocked to the DL, I tempered my hopes and really was content to see him hit 5 to 8 homeruns instead.  However, he has hit three in his return from the DL and is slugging .551 on the season.

Here is a quick chart of Mauer's power during his three seasons in the minors: 

	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	HR/H	ISO
2001	110	44	6	2	0	0.00	0.091
2002	411	124	23	1	4	0.03	0.090
2003	509	172	30	2	5	0.03	0.096
2004	49	14	4	0	3	0.21	0.265

ISO is Isolated Power [(Total Bases - Hits) / At Bats]

As you can see from the chart, Mauer's power has spiked considerably this year.  His Isolated Power has jumped nearly 300% and he is only two away from matching the homerun total he reached last season in about one-tenth of the at bats.  In short, he is exceeding the wildest expectations of any but the most optimistic Twins fan regarding his power swing. 

His surge in power has helped to make him my favorite Twin to have at the plate in a key situation already.  His patience and ability to work the count is fantastic.  In addition, he has thrown out 6 of 9 potential base-stealers. 

Basically, I can not be more excited to have Mauer playing for the Twins for the next few seasons.  I also look forward to being further surprised by more advances in his game.

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posted on June 19, 2004

Who Are These Guys?

It really takes a lot for a baseball player to sneak up on me.  After all, I probably spend an hour each day reading about the Twins.  I then spend another hour or two reading about other teams or watching baseball on TV or something.  It's not that I'm lazy, I just am sick of waiting to hear about the job I supposedly had lined up a month ago.  Anyway, with all of the time I invest into baseball, I am usually on top of most teams.  That is why yesterday's Twins game surprised me.

In the top of the seventh inning, Jeff Bennett entered the game as a relief pitcher for Milwaukee.  I had never once heard of him before that moment.  I looked over his stats and he has had a very good rookie season out of the Milwaukee bullpen to this point.  However, his success was not the only thing about him to catch my eye.  No, he also looks like an idiot. 

As he mowed down the Twins, six up and six down in his two innings of work, I was only hoping that the real reason the Twins were having such awful at bats was because they were laughing on the inside.  Here are the only two pictures of Bennett that I can find (and the one on the left is his "official" picture, so he knew in advance it would be taken and still chose to look like an idiot):

Where to begin...  First of all, what is the appeal of the dead marmot look?  I know that I can get lazy and neglect shaving for a day or two.  I have been guilty of wearing the "chin strap", but I never let that hair get more that three days "long".  Otherwise, I'll trim it back to a more reasonable and manageable distance. I really wish someone could explain to me why other men like to give off the appearance of having a rodent on their face.

Secondly, what is the deal with the hat?  Could it be any more stiff?  The bill looks like it is two feet wide and goes well past his ears.  At the same time, it looks like it is four sizes to big as he pulls it down past his eyebrows.  It's one thing to look intimidating like Dave Stewart, it's another thing to look like a moron.

After two great innings, Bennett left the game for Brewers closer and groundball extraordinaire Danny Kolb.  Kolb has induced 53 groundballs to 13 flyballs in 26.2 innings of work.  He has a 1.01 ERA and all 19 hits off of him have been singles.  Frankly, I would be frightened to bat against him.  Say what you will about Jeff Bennett, but at least his eyes are open. 

Kolb, on the other hand, has some eye troubles.  Either Kolb is blind, just got the crap kicked out of him, took way too much Sudafed, or just ate ten White Castle cheeseburgers and is about to vomit.  If you don't believe me, take a look at his picture:

Since I'm already making fun of Brewers, I must as well ask when Chad Moeller turned into Gilbert Godfried?

That's all for today.  I'm working a 11am-1am shift tomorrow so this might be the last update for a few days.  Hopefully, you will keep checking back in the off chance that I will update this page.  I do promise to churn out more material, and make fun of more Brewers, as soon as I can.

Happy Father's Day!

Watermelon seed-spitting contest on July 4, 2003

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posted on June 18, 2004

Sandbagging

Sandbag: To downplay or misrepresent one's ability in order to deceive someone, especially in gambling

Torii Hunter is in the middle of a miserable stretch of plate appearances.  Before the eighth inning of yesterday's game, Torii had these at bats dating back to Tuesday's game: pop out, ground into double play, strike out swinging, strike out swinging, strike out looking, strike out swinging, strike out swinging, pop out, ground out.

In that stretch of at bats, Torii Hunter had failed to get the ball out of the infield nine straight times.  In fact, he struck out five straight times during the stretch.  In addition, he hit into a double play.  All in all, it was a pretty terrible set of at bats: nine times up, ten outs created, no balls out of the infield, and five strikeouts.

Of course, with the score tied in yesterday's game in the eighth inning, Torii stepped up to the plate with the chance to be a hero.  Torii then lined a double to centerfield to drive in the winning run as the Twins won 6-4, and swept all three games from Montreal.  The Expos must have felt fairly confident when Hunter strolled to the plate knowing that he had been their easiest out for several days; however, Hunter had them right where he wanted them.

There were some other positives for the Twins.  Matt Guerrier made his first Major League appearance and pitched four innings.  While the results were not great, it was good to see the Twins finally pull the plug on Seth Greisinger's reign of terror in the fifth starter's spot and try someone new.  Guerrier pitched around some early jitters and some sloppy defense to survive and give the Twins a chance to win the game.

Another great sign was Ron Gardenhire's use of the bullpen in the eighth inning.  To start the inning, Grant Balfour was brought in to hold the Expos at bay as a bridge until Joe Nathan could enter in the ninth.  This was a great sign to me because I have felt for a long time that Balfour could be a Wild Card who can really help the bullpen in middle relief.  To this point, he has been protected from close games by Gardenhire.

Balfour promptly lost his control and struggled.  He got just one out while allowing three hits and a run.  Then, Ron Gardenhire made another unexpected but excellent decision.  He brought Joe Nathan into the game with one out in the eighth inning.  In his two and a half seasons as manager, Gardenhire has rarely used his closer before the ninth inning.  It was refreshing to see Gardenhire break away from the rigid roles he had established for his bullpen and think a little more creatively.

Joe Nathan continued his excellent work and got the Twins the five outs they needed to leave Montreal with a sweep.  Nathan has give up a run in just two out of thirty appearances.  He has a microscopic 0.64 ERA since April 14.  In short, he has been a fantastic pick-up for the Twins this season and has done everything physically possible to make Twins fans forget Eddie Guardado.

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posted on June 17, 2004

This is Getting Ridiculous

Last night, the Twins defeated the Montreal Expos in eleven innings.  Kyle Lohse pitched five shutout innings before falling apart with two outs in the sixth.  He allowed four runs before finally escaping the inning and putting himself in line for yet another loss.  However, the Twins bailed him out with a two-run rally in the ninth inning to send the game to extra frames.

When Juan Rincon strolled in from the bullpen to pitch for the Twins in the bottom of the ninth, it became a foregone conclusion that the Twins would score the winning run before he left the game.  Sure enough, Luis Rivas hit a controversial homerun to lead off the eleventh inning and provided the team with the necessary offense to win, 5-4. 

At this point, Juan Rincon's record now stands at 8-3 despite pitching entirely out of the bullpen.  He is tied for second in the American League in victories with Mark Mulder and Curt Schilling and trails the leader, Kenny Rogers, by just one win.  Despite pitching fewer than half as many innings, Rincon has twice as many wins as Brad Radke. 

This just demonstrates how useless the "win" statistic really is.  Radke gets absolutely no run support and seems to leave with every game tied.  In this way, Rincon can stroll in from the bullpen, keep the game for an inning or two while the offense scores one run, and then take credit for the victory.  His teammates have taken to calling him The Vulture, which shows that even they understand that he is "stealing" wins from other players.

If Rincon keeps up his current pace (which I would give a 0.1% chance in happening), then he would finish the season with twenty wins.  However, I would give him a slim chance of challenging the record for most wins by a relief pitcher in a single season.  The American League record is 17 held by both Bill Campbell and John Hiller, while the Major League record is 18 held by Roy Face of the 1959 Pittsburgh Pirates.

So far, Rincon has yet to allow a run in the month of June.  In fact, his main weakness through the month of May was his control as he was allowing 6.2 BB/9IP and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.8.  In June, his BB/9IP has dropped to 1.3 (although it is just seven innings, so a ridiculously small sample size) while his K/BB ratio has risen to 11.0.

He throws a hard slider and cut fastball that both ride in on the hands of a left-handed batter.  In this way, he is effective against all hitters and Ron Gardenhire has begun to stop taking him out solely to play the platoon advantage.  Of course, the recent struggles of J.C. Romero might also have played a role in that decision as well.

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posted on June 16, 2004

#9's and #675

Last night, the Twins defeated the Montreal Expos 8-2.  Johan Santana continued to turn his season around as he started the game with seven shutout innings before giving up his mandatory homerun to Jose Vidro in the eighth inning.  By that point, the Twins already had an eight run lead so the homerun did nothing but affect Santana's ERA.

One interesting storyline is the continued excellent play of Lew Ford.  In yesterday's game, Lew hammered out his ninth homerun of the season, and fourth of the month of June.  His OPS is still above 900 for the season which is excellent.  Torii Hunter also added his ninth homerun of the season in yesterday's game as well.  I doubt anybody would have predicted that he and Ford would reach that mark on the same day of the season.

When Shannon Stewart returns from his foot injury, the already crowded lineup will get even more cramped.  The most likely candidates to lose their spots in the starting lineup are Lew Ford and Matthew LeCroy.  However, this poses a problem because LeCroy has also been hitting the ball very well as of late and deserves a starting spot.  In fact, the two players whose performances have begged for some sort of benching are Jacque Jones and Doug Mientkiewicz. 

Both players are struggling at the plate - Jacque against lefties and Doug against humans.  Of course, they also both make a lot more money than Ford and LeCroy and have been key members of the team for a longer period of time.  Sadly, that is probably all that is necessary for them to retain their spots in the starting lineup.

It should be interesting to see how it all plays out, but another injury might really help the team in the long run.  Mainly, Doug Mientkiewicz should fess up to his wrist injury being more serious than he claims and then take at least a few weeks and possibly a month off to rest and let it heal. 

The machoism and manliness present in the Twins clubhouse borders on the absurd as some players refuse to exit the lineup unless they are missing a limb.  It is time for Ron Gardenhire and the training staff to take a little more control of the team and protect the players from themselves in the long run

On a completely unrelated note, I went to the first game of the double-header between the Giants and Orioles last Saturday in amazing seats thanks to John Robbins.  I must thank him yet again (I cannot thank him enough) for giving me the opportunity to see the greatest player of my lifetime for the first time.  Barry Bonds put on quite a show during batting practice, but was unable to hit the warehouse beyond the right field wall.

Then, in the third inning, Barry stepped to the plate:

Rodrigo Lopez missed with the first pitch and then became the 400th pitcher in history to allow a Major League homerun to Barry Bonds with his second pitch of the at bat.  The whole stadium was electric as the ball sailed in a line drive over the leftfield wall.  Bonds' opposite-field power was phenomenal.  As he crossed the plate, he paid tribute to his father:

I had such a great time despite being booed for giving Bonds a standing ovation during each of his plate appearances.  The homerun put him just eighty behind tying Hank Aaron for the most all-time in history.

Finally, to wrap up with a Twins note, A.J. Pierzynski's homerun in the eleventh inning of the game helped the Giants ultimately defeat Baltimore.  Dustan Mohr struck-out during four of his first five trips to the plate, but scored a run during Jorge Julio's meltdown in the eleventh.

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posted on June 15, 2004

Shut Up, Hochstuhl

The Twins just lost two out of three games to the Philadelphia Phillies last weekend.  During Friday's loss, J.C. Romero continued to slide from erratic to awful and found himself sent to AAA after the game.  His continuing struggles puzzle me because he has some of the best movement, and nastiest sink of any pitcher on the entire staff.  His emergence was a huge key to the 2002 division champions because he eased the burden on Eddie Guardado and excelled during the time it took LaTroy Hawkins to find himself.

Saturday's game featured an excellent performance by Carlos Silva as he won his seventh game tying fellow Venezuelan Juan Rincon for the team lead.  Of course, Brad Radke has been phenomenal all year but "does not know how to win" in the words of Joe Morgan as the team provides him with a run support virtually similar to number of french fries Matthew LeCroy leaves behind when he eats a Supersize Meal.

Speaking of which, Sunday's game featured another well pitched game from Radke as he earned his eighth quality start in his past nine appearances.  In fact, during that time Radke has averaged almost seven innings per start with a strikeout to walk ratio of 43:7 and, most remarkably of all, allowed just one homerun.  Radke has taken his already ridiculously good control up another notch, but his ability to prevent homeruns on all the balls in play has been the key to his excellent stretch.

Anyway, the Twins, as usual, scored Radke just one run and the game was lost in the eighth inning as the defense was unable to convert a ground-ball into a double play.  This leaves the Twins record against National League teams at 4-2 as they travel to Montreal to begin play against the deadball Expos. 

I, for one, always love to watch the Twins pitchers hit, so this next week should be very fun.  It seems as if the Twins pitchers typically handle the bat very well and always are able to get a bunt down when necessary.  Their success further illustrates just how maddening Cristian Guzman and Luis Rivas can be at the plate.  After all, if a pitcher asked to bunt thrice all season can manage successfully, why does our keystone combination always struggle.

Finally, Luis Rivas has been on a tear the past few days since returning from the disabled list.  Michael Cuddyer has found himself sitting more and more frequently on the bench and I fear that he has now been completely buried on the depth chart for the remainder of the season.  Mike Ryan's injury should open up a few (very few) at bats in the outfield, but Michael Restovich might be the prime candidate to benefit as the Twins try to showcase him to other teams as a possible bargaining chip in a trade.

My former roommate, Eric Hochstuhl, is currently in Texas (under strict orders not to mess with it) while training for his new job at Price Waterhouse Coopers.  Thankfully, he was unable to reach me this weekend to rub in my face the fact that his Phillies have now taken both series against the Twins in their long, pathetic history.  However, I plan to hear from him shortly.

Well, that wraps up all of the action from the weekend.  At some point in the next few days, after my job quiets down, I will upload some very cool pictures from the weekend when I traveled to Camden Yards and saw the greatest baseball player in my lifetime for the first time with my own eyes.  Be sure to check back later in the week to find them.

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posted on June 11, 2004

Defying the Odds

The Twins played the game yesterday with all three catchers in the starting lineup.  In the eighth inning, Joe Mauer walked and then was removed for a pinch-runner.  At this point, Ron Gardenhire was now down to two catchers: Matt LeCroy and Henry Blanco.

Of course, after two quick outs in the ninth inning, Matt LeCroy reached on a single and Gardenhire faced an extremely difficult decision.  He could either pinch-run for Matthew LeCroy, the slowest runner in the American League, or he could pinch-hit for Henry Blanco, a terrible offensive player.  Unfortunately for Gardy, he left himself without the option of doing both by removing Mauer an inning earlier. 

The weapons at Gardenhire's disposal were the following three players: Doug Mientkiewicz, Michael Cuddyer and Jose Offerman.  Not one of these guys is particularly fast, so pinch-running may have seemed like a bad idea.  However, not one of these guys is crushing the ball against right-handed pitchers either. 

In fact, despite being a right-handed hitter, Michael Cuddyer would probably have been my choice as the pinch-hitter.  However, he can replace Luis Rivas at second base defensively, so Gardenhire might not want to burn him in case this batter reached and Rivas came to the plate with the Twins still trailing.

If I was managing the team, I think I would have to pinch-hit for Blanco.  It would take several things to score any runner from first base.  However, Blanco gives the Twins about a twenty-five percent chance (his on base percentage) of even extending the game past his plate appearance.  So after deciding to pinch-hit for Blanco, I would choose Doug Mientkiewicz to bat.  Mainly because Mientkiewicz, despite being in a terrible slump, is still getting on base at a decent percentage and can extend the game.

Of course, Ron Gardenhire disagreed with me and chose to pinch-hit with Jose Offerman.  To me, Offer(Awful)man, is easily the worst of the three hitters on the Twins bench.  In addition, he is a terrible defensive player who will probably leave the game after the inning anyway.  Thus, there is no point to burning through him here. 

The odds, it would seem, were against the Twins.  They now had their slowest runner on first base and their worst (of three) bench players at the plate.  However, the baseball gods smiled on the Twins as Offerman doubled in LeCroy and extended the game to extra innings.

In the ninth inning, Ron Gardenhire was faced with an extremely difficult decision and emerged smelling like a rose.  To all the critics of the American League style of managing, this game demonstrates some decisions that an AL manager faces.

Edit: Michael Ryan's single scored Luis Rivas (of all people) with the winning run in the bottom of the fifteenth.  It's time for me to head off to bed and get less than six hours of sleep before work tomorrow.

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posted on June 9, 2004

A Tale of Two Games

Yesterday, Tom Glavine made his third career start in the Metrodome.  There were many similarities in his first start and yesterday's game, so I am going to run through some of the highlights.

Both games featured very good pitching match-ups as Glavine lined up against two extreme right-handed control pitchers: Kevin Tapani and Brad Radke.  The Twins pitcher faced just three batters in the top of the first inning in both games while Glavine struggled to get through the first frame.  In Game 2 of the 1991 World Series, Glavine issued a two-run homerun to Chili Davis and two walks in the first inning; in this game, however, Glavine was able to escape unscathed despite giving up a walk and a single and throwing a lot of pitches.

In 1991, the Braves answered with a run in the top of the second inning and then both pitchers cooled down and there was no more scoring for a few innings.  Radke and Glavine both kept putting up zeroes the other night.

In the fifth inning of both games, the Minnesota pitcher allowed a run.  In both games, a double by the opponent ended up creating the run.  In the first case, Greg Olson doubled and eventually scored on a Rafael Belliard sacrifice fly.  In the second case, Ty Wigginton doubled and scored on a two-out single by Vance Wilson.  While the Twins were allowing single runs, Glavine was in a zone in both games.

A scoreless sixth inning in both games, led the games to their final three innings.  Glavine continued to cruise with his sixth straight shutout inning in 1991.  Thirteen years later, however, the Twins finally were able to push across the tying run.  Playing small ball, the Twins converted an infield single, a sacrifice bunt, a stolen base and a fielder's choice into a run to tie the game.  Thus, Glavine entered the eighth inning tied in both games.

Despite allowing two base runners in the eighth inning, Kevin Tapani pitched through the threat and kept the score tied.  In the other game, Brad Radke was finished with his fine start as Juan Rincon trotted in from the Twins bullpen and pitched a dominant eighth inning against the top of the Mets order.

Then, in the bottom of the eighth, Tom Glavine found himself in trouble in both games.  Back in 1991, Scott Leius led off the bottom of the eighth inning with a homerun.  After a walk and a balk, the Twins threatened to increase their lead but were ultimately stifled.  The other night, Tom Glavine pitched around a double and single to get the final two outs of the eighth inning with the go-ahead run on third base.

In the top of the ninth, the Twins featured solid pitching from their bullpen in both games.  Juan Rincon pitched his second straight perfect inning the other day, while Rick Aguilera pitched mow-'em-down inning as he struck out the side around a single. 

The bottom of the ninth, which was unnecessary in 1991 after Scott Leius' homerun scored the game-winning run, provided the Twins with their winning run the other night while spoiling a quality start by Glavine.  In this game, another 1991 Atlanta Brave, Mike Stanton, emerged from the bullpen to face a trio of left-handed batters. 

After a Jacque Jones lead-off single and a failed sacrifice attempt, Joe Mauer reached on an error by Kaz Matsui.  Pinch-hitter Michael Cuddyer lined a single to a diving Ty Wigginton and Jacque Jones motored around third base and scored ahead of the throw to the plate after Wigginton had instinctively thrown the ball to first base.

Thus, with some late scoring and quality starting pitching, the Twins twice stared down Tom Glavine in the Metrodome and emerged victorious.  The offense continued its two-game trend of scoring just enough runs at the last possible moment to get a win.

For those who are curious, here is the box score and play-by-play of both games: 1991 World Series Game Two and June 8, 2004 Mets vs. Twins.

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posted on June 8, 2004

Draft Thoughts and Recap

First, I would like to thank the Twins Geek for his link and kind words yesterday.  To all of you who are new to the site (and several people added me to their "favorites" list so some of you must be new), let me say welcome and I hope you enjoy my site.  May was a very hectic month for me, but I hope to provide new entries four or five times a week the rest of the summer.  Anyway...

"In a perfect world, they [the Twins] would grab a hitter, starting pitcher and middle infield prospect with their first three picks. Radcliff said Sunday that they now could end up with three pitchers." - LaVelle E. Neal III, Star Tribune

The Twins had a very unusual draft yesterday to say the least.  From the start, it was expected to be a very important draft for the Twins because they possessed five of the first thirty-nine picks.  I was hoping that the Twins would draft two players, Trevor Plouffe and Glen Perkins, with two of those picks and I would then trust Terry Ryan and the scouting department to do the rest.  Thankfully, those two players were their first two selections as the 20th and 22nd picks overall.

Plouffe, a high school shortstop from California, may take a few years to develop, but he definitely has a spot immediately in an organization completely lacking competent middle infielders.  Perkins was a sentimental pick as a sophomore at the University of Minnesota and he grew up in Stillwater, Minnesota.  He was one of the better left-handed pitchers in college last season.

The next three choices were all right-handed pitchers.  Kyle Waldrop is a high school pitcher from Tennessee who supposedly has already made a firm commitment to attend Vanderbilt University in the fall.  I can only think of two possibilities in this situation.  Most likely, the team worked out a pre-draft deal to ensure that Waldrop forgoes college. 

However, the Twins may have taken him as insurance for next season.  Teams who do not sign their first-round picks are compensated with a supplemental pick the following season.  Thus, the Twins may have decided to "punt" a pick in the hopes of a similar pick in next year's draft.  This makes sense for a couple of reasons.  For one, the Twins draft budget will be very high this year because of all the high picks that were chosen.  Plus, the draft this season was one of the weakest in memory according to many baseball people, so the Twins may actually get better value with a pick next year.

After Waldrop, the Twins chose Matt Fox from the University of Central Florida with the thirty-fifth selection.  According to the amazing reference work created by Craig Burley of The Hardball Times and Batters Box, Fox was the eighteenth best collegiate pitcher last season after adjusting for context (defense, run scoring, etc.).  He actually ranks even higher on Burley's list than Glen Perkins.

The final first round choice was Jay Rainville from a high school in Rhode Island.  Many analysts had him projected as a mid-first round pick, so the Twins definitely caught a break when he was still available at the thirty-ninth spot.  All four of these pitchers are projected to be starters so the Twins may have just added a couple of players for their 2008 starting rotation.

The Twins continued to focus on pitching and a whopping fourteen of their first seventeen picks were pitchers.  I think that a few of them were drafted with the plan of not signing them initially in order to save money.  It will be very interesting to see how many of them actually sign because the Twins may be looking at having a 12 man pitching staff at Elizabethton in the Rookie League.

The draft with the final thirty-two rounds.  Hopefully one of the players the Twins take tomorrow will end up playing a crucial role for the team in a few years, but it is likely that any Major League success these second-day players see will be as reserves whether in the bullpen or on the bench.

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posted on July 6, 2004

Applying Hindsight to Past Drafts

Tomorrow afternoon, the Twins will use five first round draft picks in an attempt to bolster their farm system with the next wave of contributors.  I have read some of the information around the internet about available players and seen projections about which players the Twins may take, but I do not want to even begin to speculate because I have so little knowledge of the situation.

Instead, I would like to look back twenty years and take a sample of five drafts to see how well the Twins scouts performed.  I am going to run through the drafts from 1982-86 and point out some good choices, terrible choices and anything else that stands out to me.  Back during the 1980s, there were actually two player drafts per season, and so I will run through both the January and June drafts during this period.

January 1982

The Twins had the third pick in this draft and made an excellent selection by taking Kirby Puckett.  The next player selected by the Twins that ultimately reached the Major Leagues was pitcher Greg Mathews.  Mathews, who was taken in the ninth round, did not sign with the Twins.  Instead, he rose up through the St. Louis organization after being drafted in 1984, and started Game 4 against Minnesota in the 1987 World Series.  None of the other eleven players selected by the Twins in the January 1982 draft reached the Majors.

June 1982

In the first round, the Twins selected left-handed pitcher Bryan Oelkers from Wichita State.  He reached the Major Leagues just one year later, but pitched very poorly for the Twins.  In 1983, he went 0-5 with an 8.65 ERA, and he returned to the minor leagues.  He resurfaced in the 1986 Cleveland Indians bullpen, but his career ended after just 45 appearances.

The Twins selected another left-handed pitcher in the second round.  Allan Anderson, a high-schooler from Ohio, reached the Major Leagues in 1986.  In 1988, he received a full-time shot at the Twins rotation and responded by leading the American League with a 2.45 ERA.  After winning seventeen games in 1989, everything fell apart for Anderson and he was out of Majors within two years at the age of twenty-seven.

The eleventh round selection, Mark Davidson, joined the Twins in 1986 and fulfilled the role of fifth outfielder for three seasons before moving along to join the Astros in the same capacity. 

Eighteenth round pick Frank Eufemia pitched in 39 games out of the 1985 Twins bullpen in his only stint in the Majors.  While catcher Marty Pevey, the nineteenth round selection, had a brief cup of coffee in 1989 with Montreal.  The Twins stopped making selections in the thirty-third round.

January 1983

Not one of the Twins fourteen selections ever reached the Major Leagues.

June 1983

With the very first pick in the entire draft, the Twins chose right-handed pitcher Tim Belcher from Mount Vernon Nazarene College.  He spurned the Twins offer and returned to the draft the next season.  Ultimately, Belcher pitched in the Majors from 1987-2000 and compiled a 146-140 record and a 4.16 ERA.  Roger Clemens was selected by the Red Sox later in this round.

In the second round, the Twins selected right-handed pitcher Bill Swift from the University of Maine.  He, too, ignored the Twins offer and returned to the draft in 1984.  His Major League career lasted from 1985-98 and featured a 94-78 record and a 3.95 ERA.

After such a horrible start, the draft got even worse for Twins fans.  Not one of the team's next twenty-five!!! picks ever reached the Major Leagues.  Twenty-eighth round pick Mark Brown finally broke the streak  Of course, his big league career consisted of fifteen relief appearances with an ERA of 5.21.

The Twins stopped selecting players after the thirty-first round and concluded what must have been one of the worst drafts in Major League  history.  The Twins received a combined total of six Major League appearances out of all thirty-one players that they selected.

January 1984

Sixth round choice Joe Bitker, was the first Twins selection from this draft to reach the Major Leagues.  However, he did not sign with the Twins and reached the Majors for just fifteen relief appearances in 1989 and 1990. 

The team's fifteenth pick also reached the Majors after reentering the draft without signing with the Twins.  He went on to accumulate more hits than any other player during the 1990s and finally retired after last season.  He was, of course, Mark Grace.  The Twins stopped selecting after the seventeenth round without selecting a single player who would ever play a game in a Twins uniform.

June 1984

With the eighth overall pick in the first round, the Twins selected Mark Grace's future teammate Jay Bell.  After the fiasco of the previous season, the Twins were able to sign Bell and then traded him for Bert Blyleven the next summer.  Bell went on to have a long, productive career and retired after last season.

After selecting Bell, the Twins chose thirty-six other players.  However, only one of them ever reached the Major Leagues with the Twins.  However, he later was a key contributor to one of the greatest moments in Twins history.  Twentieth-round choice Gene Larkin had a seven year career as a role player and, of course, had the game-winning hit in Game Seven of the Greatest World Series of All Time.

January 1985

Seventh round selection Mike Benjamin was the only Twins choice to reach the Major Leagues.  He did not sign with the team, and finished his career in 2002 after playing as a utility infielder for thirteen seasons.

June 1985

First round pick Jeff Bumgarner was a bust in what proved to be a great first-round crop of players.  While players such as Barry Bonds, B. J. Surhoff, Barry Larkin and Will Clark had already been taken in the round, the Twins bypassed Rafael Palmiero and Gregg Jefferies when they selected Bumgarner.

Third round pick Paul Abbott pitched in 28 games for the Twins before they released him 1993.  However, is still helping out his first organization.  Eighth round pick Mark Davis did not sign with the team and played in just three career games.

In the twenty-first round, the team chose Lenny Webster.  He played parts of five seasons with the Twins and then bounced around as a backup catcher until 2000.  The Twins chose eleven more players after Webster, but none of them ever reached the Majors.

January 1986

In the first round, the Twins selected Jarvis Brown.  He had a brief career as a backup outfielder with four different teams appearing in 155 games overall.  Fourth round choice Mike Dyer bounced around for a few years and ended up with a 14-18 record and 4.60 ERA in 236.2 career innings.  Eighth round pick Mike Schwabe did not sign with the Twins and eventually appeared in 14 games as a pitcher for the Tigers.

June 1986

With the tenth pick in the draft, the Twins chose catcher Derek Parks.  In three brief appearances with the team, he had a .200 batting average with no plate discipline or power.  Second round pick Jeff Bronkey split time in three seasons in the Majors but all three years came after he was released from the Twins organization.

Bryan Hickerson, the seventh round choice out of the University of Minnesota, was traded the following offseason as the Twins acquired Dan Gladden from the Giants.  He went 21-21 in his Major League career pitching primarily in relief.

In the tenth round, the Twins drafted Jeff Reboulet.  It took him six years to finally reach the Majors, but he then forged a very successful career as a utility infielder taking over Al Newman's spot on the Twins roster for five seasons. Finally, Scott Leius was selected in the thirteenth round out of Concordia College.  He formed part of a successful third base platoon for the 1991 Twins and spent six seasons with Minnesota.

Conclusion

Without looking at the drafts of other teams, it is very difficult to put the Twins draft record into its proper context.  However, after the excellent selection of Kirby Puckett in 1982, the team did not develop a first-round pick into a everyday player within the organization in the next four years. 

Not only that, but only twenty-five players ever reached the Major Leagues from these entire selections.  While the rate of five players a year does not seem that bad, it must be noted that nearly half of these players only appeared for a brief time.  In fact, just five players ended up playing with the team for more than three seasons.  Of these five, only Kirby Puckett and Allan Anderson held starting positions for the majority of their Twins careers.

Despite the Twins poor selections, the team proceeded to win two World Series championships in the five years following this study.  This just goes to show that evaluating players from outside an organization is just as important, probably even more important, than evaluating the amateur prospects who are available in each draft.

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posted on June 4, 2004

Santana: Plagued by the Long Ball

Yesterday, Johan Santana had another decent outing that ultimately ended poorly.  He began the game with five no-hit innings, but then got hurt again by the long ball.  Santana lost the no-hit bid, and ultimately the game, in the sixth inning when Aubrey Huff launched a three-run homerun over the baggy in right field. 

"It seems like every time they put the ball in play, nobody is there," said Santana. "They hit it to the right spot."  What Santana failed to add, is that "the right spot" is over the fence. 

Currently, Santana is tied for seventh in the American League in homeruns allowed.  However, of the ten pitchers to allow at least twelve homeruns in the American League, only two - Jamie Moyer and Joel Piniero, both of Seattle - have pitched more innings.

Below is a chart of the top ten pitchers in homeruns allowed in the American League.  Obviously, all of these pitchers are below league average in homerun rate (Homeruns Allowed per 9 innings pitched).  However, I will highlight those who have walk fewer batters or strikeout more batters than the league average.  In addition, I have include the Defense Efficiency Ratio for each pitcher and highlighted the totals of the pitchers who have received better than average support from their defense.