posted on July 31, 2004
Reliever Usage
First, I would like to point out that as of right now, I have had
10,290 visitors this month. I am thrilled that so many people
have found my writing entertaining and have been willing to continue
paying my site a visit. Aaron Gleeman probably sent a few of
you here yesterday with his link. While I appreciate the
compliments he gave me, I know that the real reason he wrote those
kinds words was because he felt sorry for kicking my Diamond Mind
Baseball team's ass this week.
I joined a league with him a few months ago and the team I inherited
is bad - 2003 Detroit Tigers bad.
In fact, the Washington Cold Warriors fired their manager a few
weeks ago and replaced him with figurehead Henry Kissinger.
Anyway, couple the Cold Warriors' ineptitude with the fact that
Aaron's team is about 56 games ahead of me
within our division and that he played me this week, and it's no
wonder he had a little sympathy for me. In all seriousness,
thanks for the link Aaron; I can only dream of being about ten
percent as interesting
and thought-provoking in my writing as you are in yours.
Besides using that introduction to thank Aaron, it also ties nicely
to another participant in that Diamond Mind League. Bill
Liming is the author of
Phillies Fan in addition to being in the league. I really
like his writing style as well as the interesting studies he digs up
relating to strategy and roster construction related to the
Phillies. I finally got around to running of one his studies
on the Twins. Hopefully, he does not get too angry with me for
copying his idea, but I was curious and it was pretty cool.
Anyway, the study relates to the high leverage innings pitched by
members of the bullpen. Bill identified high leverage innings
as "innings in which the reliever comes on with the tying run
either on base or at bat, or with a 1 run deficit". That
seems simple enough to understand.
Now the whole point of this study was to see how frequently these
innings go to the best pitchers in the bullpen. In the
following table, I placed the pictures from top to bottom in the
order that I would like to see them enter the game in a close
situation (basically, a tie-game in the ninth inning with all of
them at my disposal). Here is the table:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
High Leverage |
|
Low Leverage |
|
Pitcher |
IP |
HLI |
HL% |
|
G |
HLS |
HLF |
HL% |
|
W |
L |
SV |
|
W |
L |
SV |
|
Nathan |
47 |
24.2 |
52 |
|
44 |
20 |
1 |
48 |
|
1 |
|
13 |
|
|
|
15 |
|
Rincon |
52.1 |
27.2 |
53 |
|
47 |
16 |
10 |
55 |
|
7 |
3 |
|
|
1 |
|
2 |
|
Balfour |
27 |
10 |
37 |
|
22 |
5 |
1 |
27 |
|
4 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Romero |
42.2 |
25.2 |
60 |
|
43 |
18 |
10 |
65 |
|
5 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Fultz |
40.2 |
11 |
27 |
|
43 |
10 |
5 |
35 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
Roa |
47.1 |
14 |
30 |
|
34 |
9 |
2 |
32 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mulholland |
35 |
7.1 |
21 |
|
23 |
5 |
2 |
30 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
Pulido |
11.1 |
0 |
0 |
|
6 |
0 |
1 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thomas |
2.2 |
0.2 |
25 |
|
3 |
1 |
1 |
67 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Greisinger |
4.2 |
2 |
43 |
|
3 |
0 |
1 |
33 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Guerrier |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Totals |
309.1 |
123 |
40 |
|
269 |
84 |
34 |
44 |
|
22 |
12 |
14 |
|
2 |
0 |
19 |
Here is a quick explanation of all of the terms (again directly from
Bill Liming's study):
HLI are high
leverage innings, innings in which the reliever comes on with the
tying run either on base or at bat, or with a 1 run deficit.
HLS is success in a high leverage
inning, defined as not surrendering the lead when ahead, the tie in
a tie situation, or a run when down one. Runs count against the
pitcher on the mound at the time they score in this system, not
against the one whose ERA they impact.
HLF is failure in a high leverage
inning, defined as surrendering the inherited high leverage
situation. Coming in with a lead, and giving up one or more runs but
maintain that lead, is not a failure.
HL% is the percentage of innings the
pitcher has thrown in high leverage situations in the first
instance, and the percentage of the pitcher's appearances that have
been in high leverage situations in the second.
W/L/S are wins, losses and saves,
separated into two groups based on whether they resulted from a high
or low leverage situation.
So what does this whole table tell us?
First, Joe Nathan has been ridiculously good. He has entered
into a game either behind by one-run or the tying run at the plate
or on base twenty-one times and has prevented the opposition from
scoring in twenty of those situations. In addition, almost
half of his saves have come in this situation unlike many closers
who pick up "cheap" three-run lead saves very frequently while
blowing close games.
Second, Ron Gardenhire has done a very good job of funneling the
high leverage innings to Nathan, Juan Rincon and J.C. Romero.
While Romero has been an adventure to watch, he is the best
left-handed option the Twins have in the bullpen and Gardenhire is
using him accordingly. In fact, he and Rincon have a similar
rate of success at preventing the opposition from scoring.
A final note I will make is that Grant Balfour has entered the game
six times in a high leverage situation. In four of those six
games, he eventually was the winning pitcher. Of course, the
sample size is extremely small but that is still a very big point in
his favor when September and a possible post-season series rolls
around.
There are many, many other observations that can be made with this
table and I will probably revisit it sometime in the future.
Please use the comments section to discuss anything you find
interesting in the table as well as ask me questions about the
methodology. I'll be leaving this post up for the remainder of
the weekend, so I'll see you again in August.
|
posted on July 30, 2004
Taking a Breath
This past week has been a very fun time to be a Twins fan. The
team was still scuffling offensively just one week ago as the team
prepared to open a three-game series with Baltimore. While the
pitching has been superb, the offense has been awful since April.
However, in the past week the offense averaged over six runs per
game and scored at least five in every game except one.
To put that into perspective, the Twins has scored five runs in just
eight of the first nineteen games of the month. Plus, three of
those eight games were the final three games from the previous week.
If we go back to July 20th, which we will because I'm setting the
rules here, then the team has averaged 6.6 runs/game over the past
nine games and scored at least five runs in eight out of nine.
From June 19 until July 19, basically one month, the Twins also
scored at least five runs in a game eight times. Basically,
the offense is finally clicking.
At the same time, the pitching staff allowing just 4.48 runs per
game (thanks to The Hardball Times). That figure is eleven
percent better than the American League average (4.99 runs/game) if
my math is correct (which it might not be). In fact, the
starting rotation has nine quality starts in the fourteen games
since the All-Star break.
Of the non-quality starts, three were pitched by Kyle Lohse who has
been unable to pitch more than five innings since his complete-game
shutout against Kansas City. One was when Brad Radke got
rocked by the Royals and the other was yesterday afternoon when
Carlos Silva left the game in line for a quality start before J.C.
Romero entered and decided not to throw strikes.
Off of the field, the week has also been very fun with all of the
rumor and speculation occurring as the trade deadline continues to
approach. The Doug Mientkiewicz soap opera was covered fairly
well by the Twins Geek and extremely thoroughly by the community at
the
DTFC Twins Forum. Now, the ordeal has taken yet another
twist as it appears that Terry Ryan is calling Pittsburgh's bluff
and refusing to up his offer.
The Red Sox are trying to eventually acquire Mientkiewicz, but the
Twins are not willing to trade him even up for Kris Benson.
The three-way trade involving the Twins, Red Sox and Pirates is now
falling apart because the Pirates have drastically overvalued
Benson. The Twins would be best served to wait as long as
possible and call the bluff.
I feel particularly sorry for Doug during this whole fiasco.
He is basically in limbo as his future is completely unknown.
After being an everyday player for three and one-half seasons, he is
now being forced to either come off of the bench or completely
relocate. Doug has always been one of the more "mental"
players, and this has to be playing all kinds of tricks on his mind.
I personally can empathize because I was supposed to start a
full-time job on June 1st. Then, it was June 16th. Then
July 5th. Then August 2nd. Of course, here it is four
days away from the latest deadline and I have yet to be hired.
It is very similar to the job that I held as a student (and have
been working all summer). The big difference is that with an
increased level of responsibility, I will also get an increased
salary and benefits. Oh, they also will pay for my tuition as
I work on my Masters but now it is probably too late for me to start
this Fall. Basically, I'm just being hung out to dry a lot
like Doug and with each passing day I sympathize with him more and
more.
Finally, since the month is winding to a close, I thought I would
have fun with the tracker again. I mentioned back on June 26,
that I would like to start a monthly tradition:
Near the end of every month, I plan to take the time to take a
step back and highlight some of the unusual "searches" via search
engine that brought people to my website. I hope that you feel as
puzzled, humored or disturbed as I do at some of the phrases that
have referred individuals to one of my pages.
In the past month, traffic to my site increased twenty-three percent
over June. In fact, if enough of you visit again in the next
two days (or preferably, refer a friend to this site), there is a
pretty good chance that I will top 10,000 visitors in a month for
the first time. Without further ado, here are the searches
that stood out to me in the past month:
journeyman average salary midwest
baseball lineup explanation
ever swindell twins
torii hunter babies
joe mauer family plans
mike fetters head
republican draft dodgers
mlb players wives
the living room dayton
greg lecroy
chubby web
making banana liquer
wrist surgery for calcium deposits
family of pitcher terry mulholland
50 worst tv characters
terry bridgeport bluefish left
huge thick forearms
michael mauer cosmetics
|
posted on July 29, 2004
The Showdown at the Cell, Game 3
Yesterday afternoon's game featuring so many bizarre occurrences
that a recap would not do it justice. There is simply no way
that I can remember every single weird incident despite the fact
that I luckily had Tivoed the game and was able to watch it again
last night (except for the tenth inning unfortunately because
something else it was set to record came on).
Justin Morneau had not one, but two homeruns called back after
rounding the bases. The first time, he was given a ground-rule
double as the ball hit off of the top of the fence. Using Tivo,
I was able to slow it down and watch it several times and the
umpires did ultimately make the right call. However, why is
that ball not active? Why didn't he get credit for an
inside-the-park homerun for running all the bases?
Think about it. If a ball hits the top of the baggy in
right-field at the Metrodome and a player runs all the way home, the
umpires would never dream of sending him back to bases. The
ball never actually left the field of play, so I'm not sure I
understand why he was sent back. Hopefully, one of you readers
can explain the call to me.
In the second pseudo-Morneau homerun, he hit a line drive down the
rightfield line that was hooking right at the foul pole. After
huddling together, the umpires reversed their homerun call and ruled
it a foul ball. Morneau then hit a one-handed flyout to the
warning track in leftfield to conclude the at bat. Did I
mention he has some serious power?
Unfortunately, this time I think the umpires reversed the correct
call. After close examination, the ball very clearly changes
trajectory leading me to believe that it hit the foul pole. My
roommate, a neutral judge, agreed with me. Still, it's pretty
funny that Justin Morneau came within just three feet of having two
homeruns rather than a double and a fly-out.
Another story was the Twins defense at second base. On a slow,
four-hopping ground ball up the middle in the third inning, Luis
Rivas barely reached the ball and then managed to swat it into
centerfield to allow a runner from second base to score. Most
second basemen probably would not have been able to retire the
runner at first, but Rivas' range is so awful that he managed to
turn an infield single into two runs.
Later, after pinch-hitting for Rivas, Michael Cuddyer made the
play-of-the-game (at the time). With runners at the corners
(the winning run at third) in the ninth inning, Cuddyer made an
amazing pivot on an around-the-horn double-play. His catch at
second-base was a snow cone and he got upended by Jamie Burke while
turning to throw, yet he still got off a bullet over to Morneau to
retire the side. If Cuddyer can play defense that well, then
what possible strength does Rivas possess over Cuddyer?
Finally, the White Sox and Twins managed to bungle the bottom of the
seventh inning so incredibly badly that I didn't know whether to
laugh or cry. Despite their first six hitters reaching base,
the White Sox scored just ONE run in the inning. They
ran themselves into two outs on the bases. At the same time,
the Twins let a clearly fatigued Carlos Silva pitch to three batters
(and retire none) and a horrible J.C. Romero pitch to three batters
(and retire none). Finally, Juan Rincon entered the game to
face Carlos Lee - one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now.
Rincon got a generous low strike from the home-plate umpire and then
got Lee to go fishing for an outside fastball.
The White Sox lined up their three best pitchers to face the Twins
in this home series. Then, they exit the series knowing they
were thoroughly dominated in two games and played like morons in a
third. The Twins AL Central lead grew by 700% during this past
three games. Good times. Since, this post doesn't
completely do justice to the entire game, I would be remiss if I
didn't refer you to two discussions during the game:
BTF's Game Chatter and the
DTFC Twins Forum's Game Thread.
SWEEP!
|
posted on July 28, 2004
The Showdown at the Cell, Day 2
Last night, Johan Santana and Freddy Garcia took the mound to face
off in the second game of the Twins-White Sox series. Johan
Santana is in the midst of a downright ridiculous streak in which he
has dominated opposing batters. Santana entered the game with
a 1.41 ERA in 70 innings over his past nine starts while
accumulating a 94:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Sure enough, Santana gave the Twins another quality start.
Santana threw six innings of two-hit, one-run baseball while
striking out six batters. It was his tenth straight quality
start, but the six strikeouts were his lowest total since he struck
out six on May 29. His final July numbers: 46 IP, 14 H, 6 ER,
15 BB, 61 K, 1.17 ERA. If those numbers do not garner him the
AL Pitcher of the Month Award, then _______ (fill-in-the-black down
in the comments section).
Juan Rincon and J.C. Romero both pitched scoreless innings in relief
before the game was given to Joa Roa in the ninth inning with a six
run lead. He promptly allowed solo homeruns to Carlos Lee (his
second of the game) and Carl Everett. If Kris Benson does come
to the Twins, I think Roa is the pitcher who will be dropped while
Terry Mulholland slides back into the bullpen. After all, the
Twins babbled on for half of 2003 about the need for three lefties
in the bullpen.
Offensively, Cristian Guzman went 3-for-4 for the second straight
night after missing a week with back spasms and a death in the
family. Jason Bartlett was recalled from Rochester to replace
the injured Nick Punto. As a minor league shortstop, I would
expect him to take some playing time away from Guzman.
After all, it does not make a lot of sense to call him up and let
him stagnate on the bench. If the Twins really want his
versatility in the postseason, they could have used Alex Prieto as
the utility infielder until August 30th and then recalled Bartlett
after letting him play everyday. This is all wild speculation
and only time will tell about the way Ron Gardenhire will use him.
Except for Joa Roa's inning of mop-up relief, the Twins played an
excellent game. Corey Koskie tied a Major League record by
getting hit with three pitches. The offense has really sprung
to life lately as they scored 7 runs and are average 6.8 runs over
the past eight games.
There was still no news on the Doug Mientkiewicz front, but I
suspect that will change by the end of today. Apparently he
was pulled from the starting lineup shortly before the game began,
but no word yet has been leaked.
I hope the Twins can complete the sweep tonight, and I hope that the
Doug Mientkiewicz situation can be resolved very quickly. It
is not fair to Doug to leave him hanging out to dry and I am very
appreciative of his comments during this time. Just a week
ago, I was angry at Doug for complaining about playing time, but it
appears that he has looked at the writing on the wall and decided to
end his time as a Twin on a positive note.
|
posted on July 27, 2004
The Showdown at the Cell
Last night, Brad Radke and Mark Buehrle hooked in in the first game
of a three-game series between the Twins and White Sox in Chicago.
The Twins entered up one-half of a game ahead of Chicago for the AL
Central lead. For whatever reason (probably because he's a
solid pitcher and aided by his left-handedness), Buehrle has always
dispatched the Twins with relative ease.
I was concerned prior to the game about the lineup, but Ron
Gardenhire did an excellent job in finally maximizing the talent he
has been given. Finally, after three and a half years of
watching Jacque Jones flail away at Buehrle's junk, Ron Gardenhire
chose to play the percentages and use his right-handed batters.
In addition, Justin Morneau again started over Doug Mientkiewicz.
Morneau went hitless, but drove in the first run of the game.
My only complaint with the lineup was the choice of Henry Blanco at
catcher rather than Matthew LeCroy. Of course, Blanco hit a
two-run homerun, scored two runs and drove in three in an effort to
further prove that I am a moron.
Nick Punto, who was very feisty in Baltimore, broke his clavicle in
the bottom of the first inning and will probably be knocked out of
action for most of the remainder of the season. This is the
second time that his hustle and defense has garnered him some
extensive playing time. In both cases, he promptly hurt
himself and subjected the Twins and their fans to more Luis Rivas.
Brad Radke pitched seven great innings to earn his seventh win while
allowing only a solo homerun to Paul Konerko. He turned the
ballgame over to the suddenly struggling Juan Rincon who allowed a
hit batter and a homerun in two-thirds of an inning. Radke
struck out three more batters while walking none to increase his
strikeout-to-walk ratio to an absurd 94:11.
The offense, which had been ice cold since the beginning of May, is
finally beginning to show life now that the roster is basically
healthy (minus Joe Mauer). The addition of Shannon Stewart and
the increase in the playing time of Justin Morneau have coincided
with the team scoring at least five runs in six of the past seven
games.
Joe Nathan pitched a scoreless ninth inning for the Twins. He
has now pitched twenty straight shutout innings. In fact, I
have mentioned this before, but he has allowed a run in just two of
forty-four appearances and the Twins have won both of those games!
In the forty-two games Nathan has pitched without being scored upon,
he has put up this collective line: 43 IP, 23 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 16 BB,
52 K. Yikes!
The Twins are now 1.5 games ahead of Chicago with Johan Santana on
the mound tomorrow. He has been amazing for about two months
and now is the perfect time to bury Chicago.
|
posted on July 26, 2004
Using My Eyes
I attended all three Twins games in Baltimore this past weekend and
had a great time. It was extremely fun as I spent batting
practice above the dugout joking with players for all three games.
By the end of the weekend, I'm pretty sure that Justin Morneau was
convinced my girlfriend was stalking him. He signed her
Justin Morneau t-shirt, another Twins shirt and laughed that she
also brought a baseball card to the third game.
Doug Mientkiewicz did not look particularly good on either Friday or
Saturday. I know that he is trying extremely hard and his
defense is still outstanding, but his body is just giving off bad
signals. Looking at his posture he just seems to be in a
terrible mood at all times. According to reports, he has been
told he will be traded shortly (perhaps even after the Boston-New
York game concludes). Boston and Pittsburgh have been the two
most likely suitors, but we shall see how it plays out.
Players who signed my scorebook: Juan Rincon, Justin Morneau, Terry
Mulholland, Kyle Lohse, Grant Balfour, and Shannon Stewart.
I had this exchange with Ron Gardenhire while Morneau was five feet
away signing autographs:
Me: "Hey Gardy, Doctor Morneau needs to be in the lineup."
Gardy: [looks over at Morneau]: "Never, that guy is a
bum. He's benched for the year." [starts laughing and tosses
me a ball]
I posted longer thoughts on the games over at the DTFC Twins Forum
in the three game threads. I highly suggest checking them out
if you. Here are pictures taken during the weekend:

Justin Morneau signing autographs on Friday right below us.
My conversation with Gardy occurred while he was here.

I made sure to get at least one picture of Grant Balfour lugging
around the Barbie backpack. After initially saying he was
funny looking, my girlfriend now thinks Balfour is hot simply
because she heard him talk. He and I chatted about his agent
before Friday's game.

LeCroy hit some absolute mammoth homeruns during batting practice
on both Saturday and Sunday.

Corey Koskie stretched his leg out on the railing before the game
began. The camera battery was beginning to die at this point.

LLLEEEWWW, Cuddy Bear, Justin, and Nick Punto all ran together
before Sunday's game

Justin is practicing his monstrous swing while Cuddy Bear,
LLLEEEWW, Nick Punto and Torii stretch and get loose

My first look at the powder blue uniforms during the National
Anthem on Saturday.
|
posted on July 23, 2004
Off to Baltimore
Nick Punto and Michael Cuddyer both hit homeruns yesterday to pace
the Twins to a 7-5 victory and 2-game sweep over the Tampa Bay Devil
Rays. Punto's homerun, just the third of his career, was
especially shocking. After all, the guy weighs about 94 pounds
and has a slugging percentage below some batting averages. In
addition, there were three guys on base.
Just as unlikely as Punto's grand slam were the events that
followed. The normally very effective Juan Rincon entered the
game in the eighth after another fantastic Johan Santana start.
He promptly walked two batters and gave up a single before facing
Rocco Baldelli. Baldelli deposited the ball in the left-center
seats to tie the game and give both teams a grand slam. It was
just the second homerun allowed all season by Rincon and everyone
(except Joe Nathan, of course) is due to have a bad game on
occasion.
Michael Cuddyer, who has received more playing time in the past week
than the six weeks before combined, quickly untied the game with a
leadoff homerun in the eighth inning. I still have confidence
that Cuddyer can become an above average player if he is just given
consistent playing time.
Nathan then entered and closed the game out with his typical
dominance. Do you realize that he has been scored upon in just
two games all season? Plus, the Twins won both games.
Tonight the Twins open up a three-game series in Baltimore.
I'll be at the games so be sure to watch on TV or listen in for a
note from me. I'll be the tall guy in the Twins jersey and red
Twins hat.
I'll be posting pictures from the games all weekend so keep stopping
by.
|
posted on July 21, 2004
The Fabulous Baker Boy
Scott Baker was promoted to AAA Rochester last night and will join
their starting rotation immediately. Right now, he is
absolutely flying through the minor league system and mowing down
hitters at every level. This is already the second promotion
for him this season and there have been some rumblings that the team
may even consider him for a spot in the major league rotation sooner
rather than later.
Here are the totals he has accumulated this season already:
|
|
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
BB |
K |
HR |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
|
A |
45 |
40 |
13 |
12 |
6 |
37 |
1 |
2.40 |
7.40 |
1.20 |
6.17 |
|
AA |
70.1 |
44 |
23 |
19 |
13 |
72 |
2 |
2.44 |
9.24 |
1.67 |
5.54 |
|
Totals |
115.1 |
84 |
36 |
31 |
19 |
109 |
3 |
2.42 |
8.52 |
1.49 |
5.74 |
I cannot decide which of these totals is more eye-opening than the
next. First of all, he has allowed just three homeruns all
season at a rate of one per 37 innings pitched (or every four
complete games). Second, he managed to increase his strikeouts
per inning after his initial promotion by twenty-five percent.
If he keeps improving his strikeouts at that rate, he will be
striking out over 14 batters per 9 innings if he reaches the Twins
this season. Obviously, that will not happen but it is fun to
imagine a right-handed version of Johan Santana. Of course,
his stinginess regarding homeruns also makes him a polar opposite of
Santana in that regard.
His strikeout-to-walk ratio is also fantastic. In fact, if his
5.74 ratio would be fourth in all of Major League baseball behind
Brad Radke, Curt Schilling and Ben Sheets if he had accomplished it
with the Twins.
I cannot remember the last time the Twins had a pitching prospect
who performed this well in the minors. Current studs like Brad
Radke and Johan Santana really developed on the fly at the Major
League level. Plus, the Twins are fairly conservative in
rushing prospects (see: Morneau, Justin) along so I am delighted
that he is not being forced to continue to dominate a level he has
already mastered.
Baker entered and left AA with a bang. In his first start with
New Brighton, he pitched a seven inning, one-hitter against Portland
and missed a perfect game by just one out (it was a seven-inning
game because it was part of a double-header). In his final
start, he struck out 14 and walked just one batter in six innings
against Binghampton.
Needless to say, I am excited about his future and cannot wait to
see him in a Minnesota uniform. Of course, if Terry Mulholland
keeps channeling Jamie Moyer, I might have to wait a little while
longer.
Also, in other minor league news, Erik Lohse was promoted from Ft.
Myers to AA New Brighton today. He is Kyle's younger brother
and had been pitching in relief for the Miracle.
Thanks for stopping by. Please come back this weekend when I
upload some pictures from the games in Baltimore. Also, look
for me on the television. I'll probably create a Circle Me
Bert sign for Saturday's game in order to wish my sister Happy
Birthday.
|
posted on July 20, 2004
Quick Notes on the Weekend
Sorry about the lack of content the past few days. I spent the
weekend in Atlantic City celebrating the birthday of a friend.
After getting hammered at blackjack and poker, I was in a pretty
frustrated condition. What are the odds of getting four full
houses in less than one hour and only winning one of them?!
Anyway, I meandered on over to a craps table and got extremely hot
and won in all back. Good times!
Secondly, thank you for the uptick in comments at the end of my
posts. I went from averaging zero to five. Keep them
coming!
Finally, I suppose I should comment on the Twins since I have said
nothing about the past five games. Well, Joe Mauer's injury
has left me extremely disappointed. I have still yet to see
him live (even on TV) and now he will not be appearing in Baltimore
this weekend. In addition, it postpones the debut of the
Mauer-Morneau lineup that I have been anticipating for a long time.
Of course, that ties in nicely to the promotion of Justin Morneau.
There was absolutely nothing left to prove and Doug Mientkiewicz
finally, mercifully allowed himself to be placed on the disabled
list. He has had his typical nagging injuries all summer long
and his batting line was terrible. I'm very excited because I
will get to see Morneau hit this weekend while Laurie is excited
because she can get his t-shirt autographed.
Lastly, Terry Mulholland continued the Twins run of well-pitched
games. Brad Radke has been the only starter to not give the
team a quality start since the All-Star break. Come back
Wednesday afternoon when I will have a much more coherent post up
and please keep stopping by through the weekend and beyond as I hope
to post some pictures of the Twins in Baltimore.
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posted on July 15, 2004
A Midseason Wish List
Now is a pretty good time to stop and assess the season.
Similarly, it is a great time to make up a bunch of wishes about the
second half of the season. I wish that...
-
Justin Morneau was recalled from AAA and played in 80% of the games
the rest of the way
-
Whatever being inhabited Luis Rivas during the beginning of June to
return to his body
-
Jose Offerman's visa was revoked forcing him to return to the
Dominican Republic for the rest of the season
-
Terry Ryan was able to turn Jacque Jones into three useful players
-
A reliable fifth starter would emerge from within the organization
-
Grant Balfour continues to improve and sees his role increase
-
Joe Nathan remains unhittable
-
Brad Radke could get some wins
-
Johan Santana could get some wins
-
Johan Santana ends up leading the American League in strikeouts
-
Shannon Stewart, Lew Ford and Joe Mauer are the first third of the
lineup
-
Corey Koskie finally got healthy and had an excellent second half of
the season
-
Terry Mulholland retires out of the kindness of his heart
-
Michael Cuddyer pushes Luis Rivas out of the second base picture
-
The White Sox fade yet again
-
The Indians and Tigers both finish ahead of the fourth-place White
Sox
-
The Twins upset the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs
-
The Twins upset the Red Sox in the American League Championship
Series
-
Joe Mauer homers in the bottom of the ninth inning (thanks, Roger)
of Game 7 of the World Series to give the Twins a 2-1 victory over
Philadelphia
-
People to start commenting on my entries - tell me anything (i.e.
"you suck", "This is what I would do")
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posted on July 13, 2004
Limping into the Break, Part Two
Yesterday, I set up the Shannon Stewart Return, Part Two. The
theory was that Stewart's arrival in the lineup will spur the Twins
to break out of their collective offensive funk and play inspired
and winning baseball during the second half of the baseball season.
The reason that this may be expected is because virtually exactly
the same thing occurred last season.
Now, here is the tricky part. What two spots in a lineup can
Stewart be expected to play? The answer is simple: left-field
and designated hitter. The problem is determining who rides
the pine. Lew Ford, the everyday left-fielder for the past two
months, has posted an Equivalent Average (EQA) of .298 this season.
In his time before his injury, Shannon Stewart compiled an EQA of
.295. Thus, the improvement by replacing Ford with Stewart is
minimal at best.
At designated hitter, Matthew LeCroy has a .263 EQA. Despite
being my favorite player, LeCroy has been a disappointment this
season. By placing Stewart or Ford at designated hitter and
removing LeCroy from the lineup, the offense main get a boost.
Of course, LeCroy could then be used as the backup catcher and
platoon mate for Joe Mauer. Henry Blanco, he of the .196 EQA,
can be replaced easily. In addition, Jose Offerman's .251 EQA
also can take a backseat to the Ford/Stewart combination.
Another option would be to slide Ford over into right-field.
Jacque Jones's EQA is a paltry .259 - a pathetic job for a corner
outfielder. Jones and LeCroy have virtually identical
offensive contributions so a little creativity might help the
production.
Against right-handed pitchers, Jones could play right-field while
either Ford or Stewart starts as the designated hitter, then, with a
left-handed pitcher on the mound, Ford can slide into right while
LeCroy can DH. Of course, this scenario then requires Henry
Blanco to remain on the roster or Joe Mauer to catch way too many
games.
Wait a minute, Doug Mientkiewicz is sporting a dismal .251 EQA at
first base. The Twins could play LeCroy at first base to spell
Mientkiewicz. This would also improve the offense slightly,
but the defense would probably suffer.
The whole moral is that the offense can be expected to improve
simply with the addition of Shannon Stewart. Of course, the
whole exercise can quickly be proven to be pointless if Ron
Gardenhire refuses to face up to facts.
The facts in question seem to be: Jacque Jones is playing terribly -
especially against left-handed pitchers; Doug Mientkiewicz is one of
the weakest offensive players in the lineup - and not just relative
to other first basemen; Lew Ford, despite being the least
established player in the lineup on Opening Day, deserves to play
very often; and Matthew LeCroy might not be best suited to continue
on as the everyday designated hitter throughout the course of the
season.
One minor detail can throw a wrench into this entire drill.
That is, the team might finally wise up and give Justin Morneau a
spot in the lineup everyday. In his brief stint on the team,
he compiled a .307 EQA. The sample size was so small (27 plate
appearances) that it is basically meaningless. However, his
minor league EQA adjusted to the Major Leagues is .274.
That total, while not earth-shaking, certainly compares favorably to
those of Doug Mientkiewicz, Matthew LeCroy, Jose Offerman, and
Jacque Jones - four players who right now possess valuable plate
appearances that can be diverted to a superior hitter.
So after reading this entire entry, you may realize that I did not
really answer my question. Instead, I just circled the issue
while provided some options. The reason is simple, I have no
idea if Shannon Stewart's impact is imagined or real. However,
I do know that the Twins have several internal moves that can
produce a more efficient run-scoring environment. When your
are nearly last in the league in offense, every little edge counts.
Also, I am wondering what you expect out of the offense in the
second half. Do you agree with my assessment and suggestions?
Do you have other ideas? Please comment and let me know what
needs to be done.
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posted on July 12, 2004
Limping into the Break
Last year, the Twins lost eight straight games before the All-Star
break and twelve games out of thirteen overall. The offensive
was not quite anemic at that point because even an anemic offense
can score on occasion. However, the team was reinvigorated
during the three days off with the addition of Shannon Stewart and
subtraction of Bobby Kielty.
Suddenly, everything clicked. The Twins won four straight
games against Oakland with the A.J. vs. Everybody subplot out in the
open. From there, the Twins continue to play better, crisper
baseball in the second half and found themselves in the playoffs
again. The addition of Shannon Stewart seemed to radically
improve the team's fortune and drew him national acclaim for his
impact.
It seemed that Stewart was much more powerful than Spiderman, but
last year the Fantastic Four
of Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Kenny Rogers and Kyle Lohse doing the
dirty work in the shadows deserve some of the credit.
Of course, the removal of Joe Mays from the starting rotation and
implementation of Johan Santana also played an enormous role in the
turnaround. In fact, the offense was performed at virtually
exactly the same level. The pitching staff, on the other hand,
improved substantially and basically led the revival.
One year later, the team is standing at a similar junction.
The offense just sputtered while the Detroit Tigers won three
straight games at the Metrodome to enter the break. The fan
base is seemingly getting tired of watching the team tread water and
counting on the yearly implosion of the White Sox. People are
suggesting the Twins should use their organizational depth to
acquire a solid player and add some salary to the payroll to spur
the team on.
In addition, Shannon Stewart will be added to the lineup for the
second straight year. In 2003, he joined the team from
Toronto, in 2004 he is rejoining the team after being sidelined with
plantar fasciitis which translates literally from Latin into my
foot hurts like hell. Will his return be the key the team
needs?
Unfortunately, the hidden improvement of the pitching staff cannot
occur. Johan Santana and Brad Radke have been reliable for
most of the first half while Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse are about
to trade places in the starting rotation in terms of production.
While the team has a gaping hole at fifth starter (Scott Baker,
anyone?), Rick Reed did not inspire a lot of confidence last season.
In fact, about the only place for substantial improvement in the
pitching staff is the possiblity of an increased role of Grant
Balfour. Unfortunately, the will probably only be about 35
innings over the rest of the year, so his role still will not be
season-altering.
No, the pitching staff is not going to suddenly improve by half of a
run per game. Instead, the offense really needs to be fixed.
Last season, the team scored almost exactly the same number of runs
per game with Stewart in the lineup as it did without him. Can
last year's much lauded Savior fulfill the same role this season
without the sidekicks in the shadows? I'll try to answer that
question tomorrow.
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posted on July 9, 2004
Utter Domination
So I'm an idiot. In my rush to get to work yesterday
morning, I forgot to upload my newest column. Here it is with
another entry attached at the bottom. Sorry that I didn't
provide any new material yesterday, for once the reason was my
stupidity rather than my laziness.
Last night, Kyle Lohse completed the hat trick for the Minnesota
Twins starting rotation. He went out and threw the third
complete game shutout in a row against the Kansas City Royals.
In the series the Twins outscored Kansas City 25-0.
In addition, the Twins had 34 hits compared to 13 for Kansas City.
The Royals also committed all three errors in the series. The
combined batting lines for the two teams:
Twins 337/407/535 vs. Royals 138/196/138
Plus, the three Twins starting pitchers combined to strike out 24
batters while walking just 2. In short, the Royals were the
perfect medicine to cure me from my White Sox induced depression of
last week.
Today, the Tigers come to town for a four game series that will wind
up the first half of the season. The Royals and Tigers have
swapped roles from last season. Now the Tigers are playing
surprisingly better than anybody could have expected while the
Royals pretty much suck in every facet of the game.
Terry Mulholland starts tonight and will surely end this run of
shutout pitching. It will be his second, and hopefully final,
start of the season. He should get starts on the rare
occassion that the scheduled starting pitcher comes down with the
flu or pulls a muscle shortly before the game begins and another
pitcher cannot be flown in before the start of the game.
No team, at this point in his career, should every actually use him
as Plan A. He should always be Plan D for the rest of his
life. After the break, I would love to see Jesse Crain
recalled from Rochester to take Mulholland's space on the staff.
This would allow Grant Balfour to slide into the fifth starter's
slot while Crain can take Balfour's recent allotment of of fairly
high-intensity innings.
Entry, part 2:
As I predicted, Terry Mulholland ended the Twins' run of shutout
pitching. Of course, I never would have predicted that he
could tack five more innings onto the streak. At that point,
Ivan Rodriguez led off the sixth inning with a solo homerun.
The blame lays solely on Gardenhire as he got greedy.
After all, one shutout inning from Mulholland does not seem like
much. I could definitely see two innings happening in the
right circumstances. However, five seems absolutely shocking.
Rather than cash in his chips like Gardy had planned to do, he
decided to role the dice one last time in the sixth inning and it
came back to temporarily haunt him.
After the Tigers finally broke the scoreless tie, Gardenhire turned
to the three men who I believe will be the best pitchers in the
bullpen
during the second half of the season. Grant Balfour, Juan
Rincon and Joe Nathan were all well rested and combined to pitch 3.1
innings while striking out 6 batters and allow 1 baserunner.
Rincon and Nathan have already proven to be a very effective one-two
punch at the end of games and the Twins are desperately searching
for a third option. Steadily, Grant Balfour is working his way
into that role.
After a terrible start of the season, Balfour has settled down very
well. In his past ten starts, he has allowed just 2 earned
runs in 11.2 innings while striking out 16 and walking 4.
While I would love to see him cut down on his walks, it is pretty
much impossible to complain about a pitcher with a 4-to-1
strikeout-to-walk ratio.
While the bullpen was mowing down Tigers, the Twins offense sprung
to life and scored seven runs in the final three innings.
Cristian Guzman was the offensive star as he homered, doubled and
drove in four runs.
My two bones to pick with Gardy: allowing Mulholland to try to pitch
the sixth and using Jose Offerman as the designated hitter while
Michael Cuddyer and Michael Restovich sit on the bench.
At this point in his career, Offerman cannot do anything against
lefties (except get RBI singles when I complain about him).
Both Cuddyer and Restovich need all the at bats they can get, so it
seems silly to sit them on a day that plays right into their
strength.
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posted on July 7, 2004
Resting the Bullpen
Johan Santana gave the bullpen their second straight day off
yesterday. He cruised to a 4-0 victory and pitched his first
complete game and his first shutout while matching a career high
with 13 strikeouts.
In two games the Omaha Royals have now accumulated six singles and
no runs against the Twins. These two games marked the first
back-to-back shutouts for the Twins since 1976 when Pete Redfern and
Dave Goltz achieved the feat.
Santana is now 15 strikeouts ahead of Curt Shilling for the American
League lead. If he can continue to keep the ball in the park,
a very big if, then he can be absolutely dominant down the
stretch for the Twins.
After all, the homerun is now Santana's only weakness. He has
improved his control to the point that he is now twentieth in the
entire Major Leagues in walks per 9 innings. I really do not
have a lot else to add except that Santana and Radke now have me
extremely excited to get to the second half of the season.
Also, it is crazy how quickly my perception of someone can change.
Last month, John Buck was the Triple A catcher for the New Orleans
Zephyrs. After a strikeout ended an inning, he carried the
ball back to the dugout before tossing it up to my girlfriend.
Quickly, he became a player for which I would always cheer.
Of course, he was subsequently traded to Kansas City in the
Carlos Beltran trade and started last night against the Twins.
Just as quickly, he became a player I for which I would always cheer
unless he was playing Minnesota. That's to be expected, right?
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posted on July 6, 2004
A Laugher
Last night, the Twins jumped on top of the Royals early to the tune
of six runs in the second inning. Brad Radke, who has been
desperately seeking a win (and blew a great chance at one in his
last start), took the runs and ran with it. Radke cruised to
his first win in six weeks as he allowed just four singles to the
Royals.
I love blowouts when my team is winning. While a close game
has a certain appeal, a blowout helps soothe my nerves after a week
of nail-biters. Radke's starts have all been very close.
The Royals really, really suck right now. There is no other
way of establishing their level of ineptitude.
Opening Day starter Brian Anderson contributed to the mess yesterday
by allowing 3 runs in 2 innings out of the bullpen. In fact,
he allowed a homerun to Nick Punto(!), just the second of Punto's
career. Anderson's ERA continued its ascent all the way up to
7.32.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Twins Opening Day starter
watched his ERA fall to 3.42. Radke still has a little bit of
room to go before he reaches the level he was at before his
disastrous start against Chicago.
Joe Mauer went 2-for-3 with a sacrifice fly and a double to continue
his exceptional play. Currently he has the best OPS (on base
percentage plus slugging percentage) of all catchers in the American
League. Of course, he also has one-third the number of plate
appearances as the others. Still, he has been ridiculously
good.
The only aspect of Mauer's game about which the team was uncertain
in Spring Training was his ability to hit for power. Well, he
now has seven extra base hits in his last six games. I
surprised and impressed more and more each day and cannot wait for
the next fifteen years.
Over at the
DTFC
Twins Forum, I suggested batting Mauer third in the lineup on
June 29th. Apparently, Ron Gardenhire lurks on that site and
read my suggestion because he made the move three days later.
In three games in the third spot, Mauer has gone 7-for-11 with two
doubles, a triple and a homerun. Of course, the sample size is
ridiculously small, but I like that performance.
All in all, it was a relaxing and much needed easy victory for the
Twins. Hopefully, Johan Santana can continue his amazing
performance over the last month and pitch the Twins to another
victory tonight.
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posted on July 3, 2004
Knowing the Team
Yesterday, I wrote about my frustration with the team. Of
course, I also noted that no matter how bad things got, I would not
abandon them. One of the many reasons why I will stick with
them forever is because of the connections I have made with the
different players. For example, I have seen Jacque Jones hit
against left-handed pitchers enough to not get my hopes up at all.
Well, this is all relevant because of the game last night. The
Twins had lost five straight games and fallen out of first place.
My old roommate Eric and two of his friends came down from
Philadelphia for the holiday weekend. I decided that a little
space might be necessary in my Twins relationship, so I agreed to go
out to a bar with them last night.
Now this is not to be interpreted as me abandoning the team, instead
I look at it as one of those days were both sides of a relationship
just need a break. Anyway, I caught the 5-2 score on one of
the TVs and saw that Doug Mientkiewicz had homered. That
quickly cheered me up.
By the time I returned to my apartment, the score had been tied and
there was one out in the ninth inning. Luis Rivas drew a walk
and Matt LeCroy stepped up to the plate as a pinch-hitter.
Right then and there I knew that the losing streak was over. I
knew this simply because I know the team.
My obsession with following the Twins has led me to catch virtually
every game. Therefore, I knew that Matthew LeCroy was 3-for-3
with 3 homeruns and 2 walks as a pinch hitter this season.
Sure enough, LeCroy doubled in Luis Rivas with what proved to be the
winning run.
It's small things like this that make me want to stay a Twins fan
forever. The simple joy in predicting things occur and then
watching them happen. For example, after years and years of
watching games managed by Tom Kelly, I could predict about sixty
percent of his managerial moves (hit-and-runs, etc.).
The game takes on a more personal, intimate feeling and I feel
justified in knowing way more than is healthy about the team.
That is how I cope, the joyfulness of knowing Matthew LeCroy will
come through makes up for all the bad times in between. One
plate appearance, one swing, and one managerial decision brightened
my mood for the entire weekend.
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posted on July 2, 2004