posted on July 31, 2004

Reliever Usage

First, I would like to point out that as of right now, I have had 10,290 visitors this month.  I am thrilled that so many people have found my writing entertaining and have been willing to continue paying my site a visit.  Aaron Gleeman probably sent a few of you here yesterday with his link.  While I appreciate the compliments he gave me, I know that the real reason he wrote those kinds words was because he felt sorry for kicking my Diamond Mind Baseball team's ass this week. 

I joined a league with him a few months ago and the team I inherited is bad - 2003 Detroit Tigers bad.  In fact, the Washington Cold Warriors fired their manager a few weeks ago and replaced him with figurehead Henry Kissinger.  Anyway, couple the Cold Warriors' ineptitude with the fact that Aaron's team is about 56 games ahead of me within our division and that he played me this week, and it's no wonder he had a little sympathy for me.  In all seriousness, thanks for the link Aaron; I can only dream of being about ten percent as interesting and thought-provoking in my writing as you are in yours.

Besides using that introduction to thank Aaron, it also ties nicely to another participant in that Diamond Mind League.  Bill Liming is the author of Phillies Fan in addition to being in the league.  I really like his writing style as well as the interesting studies he digs up relating to strategy and roster construction related to the Phillies.  I finally got around to running of one his studies on the Twins.  Hopefully, he does not get too angry with me for copying his idea, but I was curious and it was pretty cool.

Anyway, the study relates to the high leverage innings pitched by members of the bullpen.  Bill identified high leverage innings as "innings in which the reliever comes on with the tying run either on base or at bat, or with a 1 run deficit".  That seems simple enough to understand.

Now the whole point of this study was to see how frequently these innings go to the best pitchers in the bullpen.  In the following table, I placed the pictures from top to bottom in the order that I would like to see them enter the game in a close situation (basically, a tie-game in the ninth inning with all of them at my disposal).  Here is the table:

										High Leverage				Low Leverage
Pitcher	IP	HLI	HL%		G	HLS	HLF	HL%		W	L	SV		W	L	SV
Nathan	47	24.2	52		44	20	1	48		1		13				15
Rincon	52.1	27.2	53		47	16	10	55		7	3			1		2
Balfour	27	10	37		22	5	1	27		4	1
Romero	42.2	25.2	60		43	18	10	65		5	1	1
Fultz	40.2	11	27		43	10	5	35		2	2			1		1
Roa	47.1	14	30		34	9	2	32		2	2
Mulholland	35	7.1	21		23	5	2	30		1	2					1
Pulido	11.1	0	0		6	0	1	17
Thomas	2.2	0.2	25		3	1	1	67
Greisinger	4.2	2	43		3	0	1	33			1
Guerrier	1	0	0		1	0	0	0
Totals	309.1	123	40		269	84	34	44		22	12	14		2	0	19

Here is a quick explanation of all of the terms (again directly from Bill Liming's study):

HLI are high leverage innings, innings in which the reliever comes on with the tying run either on base or at bat, or with a 1 run deficit.

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posted on July 30, 2004

Taking a Breath

This past week has been a very fun time to be a Twins fan.  The team was still scuffling offensively just one week ago as the team prepared to open a three-game series with Baltimore.  While the pitching has been superb, the offense has been awful since April.  However, in the past week the offense averaged over six runs per game and scored at least five in every game except one.

To put that into perspective, the Twins has scored five runs in just eight of the first nineteen games of the month.  Plus, three of those eight games were the final three games from the previous week.  If we go back to July 20th, which we will because I'm setting the rules here, then the team has averaged 6.6 runs/game over the past nine games and scored at least five runs in eight out of nine.  From June 19 until July 19, basically one month, the Twins also scored at least five runs in a game eight times.  Basically, the offense is finally clicking.

At the same time, the pitching staff allowing just 4.48 runs per game (thanks to The Hardball Times).  That figure is eleven percent better than the American League average (4.99 runs/game) if my math is correct (which it might not be).  In fact, the starting rotation has nine quality starts in the fourteen games since the All-Star break. 

Of the non-quality starts, three were pitched by Kyle Lohse who has been unable to pitch more than five innings since his complete-game shutout against Kansas City.  One was when Brad Radke got rocked by the Royals and the other was yesterday afternoon when Carlos Silva left the game in line for a quality start before J.C. Romero entered and decided not to throw strikes.

Off of the field, the week has also been very fun with all of the rumor and speculation occurring as the trade deadline continues to approach.  The Doug Mientkiewicz soap opera was covered fairly well by the Twins Geek and extremely thoroughly by the community at the DTFC Twins Forum.  Now, the ordeal has taken yet another twist as it appears that Terry Ryan is calling Pittsburgh's bluff and refusing to up his offer. 

The Red Sox are trying to eventually acquire Mientkiewicz, but the Twins are not willing to trade him even up for Kris Benson.  The three-way trade involving the Twins, Red Sox and Pirates is now falling apart because the Pirates have drastically overvalued Benson.  The Twins would be best served to wait as long as possible and call the bluff.

I feel particularly sorry for Doug during this whole fiasco.  He is basically in limbo as his future is completely unknown.  After being an everyday player for three and one-half seasons, he is now being forced to either come off of the bench or completely relocate.  Doug has always been one of the more "mental" players, and this has to be playing all kinds of tricks on his mind. 

I personally can empathize because I was supposed to start a full-time job on June 1st.  Then, it was June 16th.  Then July 5th.  Then August 2nd.  Of course, here it is four days away from the latest deadline and I have yet to be hired.  It is very similar to the job that I held as a student (and have been working all summer).  The big difference is that with an increased level of responsibility, I will also get an increased salary and benefits.  Oh, they also will pay for my tuition as I work on my Masters but now it is probably too late for me to start this Fall.  Basically, I'm just being hung out to dry a lot like Doug and with each passing day I sympathize with him more and more.

Finally, since the month is winding to a close, I thought I would have fun with the tracker again.  I mentioned back on June 26, that I would like to start a monthly tradition:

Near the end of every month, I plan to take the time to take a step back and highlight some of the unusual "searches" via search engine that brought people to my website.  I hope that you feel as puzzled, humored or disturbed as I do at some of the phrases that have referred individuals to one of my pages.

In the past month, traffic to my site increased twenty-three percent over June.  In fact, if enough of you visit again in the next two days (or preferably, refer a friend to this site), there is a pretty good chance that I will top 10,000 visitors in a month for the first time.  Without further ado, here are the searches that stood out to me in the past month:

journeyman average salary midwest
baseball lineup explanation
ever swindell twins
torii hunter babies
joe mauer family plans
mike fetters head
republican draft dodgers
mlb players wives
the living room dayton
greg lecroy
chubby web
making banana liquer
wrist surgery for calcium deposits
family of pitcher terry mulholland
50 worst tv characters
terry bridgeport bluefish left
huge thick forearms
michael mauer cosmetics

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posted on July 29, 2004

The Showdown at the Cell, Game 3

Yesterday afternoon's game featuring so many bizarre occurrences that a recap would not do it justice.  There is simply no way that I can remember every single weird incident despite the fact that I luckily had Tivoed the game and was able to watch it again last night (except for the tenth inning unfortunately because something else it was set to record came on).

Justin Morneau had not one, but two homeruns called back after rounding the bases.  The first time, he was given a ground-rule double as the ball hit off of the top of the fence.  Using Tivo, I was able to slow it down and watch it several times and the umpires did ultimately make the right call.  However, why is that ball not active?  Why didn't he get credit for an inside-the-park homerun for running all the bases? 

Think about it.  If a ball hits the top of the baggy in right-field at the Metrodome and a player runs all the way home, the umpires would never dream of sending him back to bases.  The ball never actually left the field of play, so I'm not sure I understand why he was sent back.  Hopefully, one of you readers can explain the call to me.

In the second pseudo-Morneau homerun, he hit a line drive down the rightfield line that was hooking right at the foul pole.  After huddling together, the umpires reversed their homerun call and ruled it a foul ball.  Morneau then hit a one-handed flyout to the warning track in leftfield to conclude the at bat.  Did I mention he has some serious power? 

Unfortunately, this time I think the umpires reversed the correct call.  After close examination, the ball very clearly changes trajectory leading me to believe that it hit the foul pole.  My roommate, a neutral judge, agreed with me.  Still, it's pretty funny that Justin Morneau came within just three feet of having two homeruns rather than a double and a fly-out.

Another story was the Twins defense at second base.  On a slow, four-hopping ground ball up the middle in the third inning, Luis Rivas barely reached the ball and then managed to swat it into centerfield to allow a runner from second base to score.  Most second basemen probably would not have been able to retire the runner at first, but Rivas' range is so awful that he managed to turn an infield single into two runs. 

Later, after pinch-hitting for Rivas, Michael Cuddyer made the play-of-the-game (at the time).  With runners at the corners (the winning run at third) in the ninth inning, Cuddyer made an amazing pivot on an around-the-horn double-play.  His catch at second-base was a snow cone and he got upended by Jamie Burke while turning to throw, yet he still got off a bullet over to Morneau to retire the side.  If Cuddyer can play defense that well, then what possible strength does Rivas possess over Cuddyer?

Finally, the White Sox and Twins managed to bungle the bottom of the seventh inning so incredibly badly that I didn't know whether to laugh or cry.  Despite their first six hitters reaching base, the White Sox scored just ONE run in the inning.  They ran themselves into two outs on the bases.  At the same time, the Twins let a clearly fatigued Carlos Silva pitch to three batters (and retire none) and a horrible J.C. Romero pitch to three batters (and retire none).  Finally, Juan Rincon entered the game to face Carlos Lee - one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now.  Rincon got a generous low strike from the home-plate umpire and then got Lee to go fishing for an outside fastball.

The White Sox lined up their three best pitchers to face the Twins in this home series.  Then, they exit the series knowing they were thoroughly dominated in two games and played like morons in a third.  The Twins AL Central lead grew by 700% during this past three games.  Good times.  Since, this post doesn't completely do justice to the entire game, I would be remiss if I didn't refer you to two discussions during the game: BTF's Game Chatter and the DTFC Twins Forum's Game Thread.

SWEEP!

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posted on July 28, 2004

The Showdown at the Cell, Day 2

Last night, Johan Santana and Freddy Garcia took the mound to face off in the second game of the Twins-White Sox series.  Johan Santana is in the midst of a downright ridiculous streak in which he has dominated opposing batters.  Santana entered the game with a 1.41 ERA in 70 innings over his past nine starts while accumulating a 94:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Sure enough, Santana gave the Twins another quality start.  Santana threw six innings of two-hit, one-run baseball while striking out six batters.  It was his tenth straight quality start, but the six strikeouts were his lowest total since he struck out six on May 29.  His final July numbers: 46 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 15 BB, 61 K, 1.17 ERA.  If those numbers do not garner him the AL Pitcher of the Month Award, then _______ (fill-in-the-black down in the comments section).

Juan Rincon and J.C. Romero both pitched scoreless innings in relief before the game was given to Joa Roa in the ninth inning with a six run lead.  He promptly allowed solo homeruns to Carlos Lee (his second of the game) and Carl Everett.  If Kris Benson does come to the Twins, I think Roa is the pitcher who will be dropped while Terry Mulholland slides back into the bullpen.  After all, the Twins babbled on for half of 2003 about the need for three lefties in the bullpen.

Offensively, Cristian Guzman went 3-for-4 for the second straight night after missing a week with back spasms and a death in the family.  Jason Bartlett was recalled from Rochester to replace the injured Nick Punto.  As a minor league shortstop, I would expect him to take some playing time away from Guzman. 

After all, it does not make a lot of sense to call him up and let him stagnate on the bench.  If the Twins really want his versatility in the postseason, they could have used Alex Prieto as the utility infielder until August 30th and then recalled Bartlett after letting him play everyday.  This is all wild speculation and only time will tell about the way Ron Gardenhire will use him.

Except for Joa Roa's inning of mop-up relief, the Twins played an excellent game.  Corey Koskie tied a Major League record by getting hit with three pitches.  The offense has really sprung to life lately as they scored 7 runs and are average 6.8 runs over the past eight games.

There was still no news on the Doug Mientkiewicz front, but I suspect that will change by the end of today.  Apparently he was pulled from the starting lineup shortly before the game began, but no word yet has been leaked.

I hope the Twins can complete the sweep tonight, and I hope that the Doug Mientkiewicz situation can be resolved very quickly.  It is not fair to Doug to leave him hanging out to dry and I am very appreciative of his comments during this time.  Just a week ago, I was angry at Doug for complaining about playing time, but it appears that he has looked at the writing on the wall and decided to end his time as a Twin on a positive note.

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posted on July 27, 2004

The Showdown at the Cell

Last night, Brad Radke and Mark Buehrle hooked in in the first game of a three-game series between the Twins and White Sox in Chicago.  The Twins entered up one-half of a game ahead of Chicago for the AL Central lead.  For whatever reason (probably because he's a solid pitcher and aided by his left-handedness), Buehrle has always dispatched the Twins with relative ease.

I was concerned prior to the game about the lineup, but Ron Gardenhire did an excellent job in finally maximizing the talent he has been given.  Finally, after three and a half years of watching Jacque Jones flail away at Buehrle's junk, Ron Gardenhire chose to play the percentages and use his right-handed batters.  In addition, Justin Morneau again started over Doug Mientkiewicz.  Morneau went hitless, but drove in the first run of the game.

My only complaint with the lineup was the choice of Henry Blanco at catcher rather than Matthew LeCroy.  Of course, Blanco hit a two-run homerun, scored two runs and drove in three in an effort to further prove that I am a moron.

Nick Punto, who was very feisty in Baltimore, broke his clavicle in the bottom of the first inning and will probably be knocked out of action for most of the remainder of the season.  This is the second time that his hustle and defense has garnered him some extensive playing time.  In both cases, he promptly hurt himself and subjected the Twins and their fans to more Luis Rivas.

Brad Radke pitched seven great innings to earn his seventh win while allowing only a solo homerun to Paul Konerko.  He turned the ballgame over to the suddenly struggling Juan Rincon who allowed a hit batter and a homerun in two-thirds of an inning.  Radke struck out three more batters while walking none to increase his strikeout-to-walk ratio to an absurd 94:11.

The offense, which had been ice cold since the beginning of May, is finally beginning to show life now that the roster is basically healthy (minus Joe Mauer).  The addition of Shannon Stewart and the increase in the playing time of Justin Morneau have coincided with the team scoring at least five runs in six of the past seven games.

Joe Nathan pitched a scoreless ninth inning for the Twins.  He has now pitched twenty straight shutout innings.  In fact, I have mentioned this before, but he has allowed a run in just two of forty-four appearances and the Twins have won both of those games!

In the forty-two games Nathan has pitched without being scored upon, he has put up this collective line: 43 IP, 23 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 16 BB, 52 K.  Yikes!

The Twins are now 1.5 games ahead of Chicago with Johan Santana on the mound tomorrow.  He has been amazing for about two months and now is the perfect time to bury Chicago.

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posted on July 26, 2004

Using My Eyes

I attended all three Twins games in Baltimore this past weekend and had a great time.  It was extremely fun as I spent batting practice above the dugout joking with players for all three games.  By the end of the weekend, I'm pretty sure that Justin Morneau was convinced my girlfriend was stalking him.  He signed her Justin Morneau t-shirt, another Twins shirt and laughed that she also brought a baseball card to the third game.

Doug Mientkiewicz did not look particularly good on either Friday or Saturday.  I know that he is trying extremely hard and his defense is still outstanding, but his body is just giving off bad signals.  Looking at his posture he just seems to be in a terrible mood at all times.  According to reports, he has been told he will be traded shortly (perhaps even after the Boston-New York game concludes).  Boston and Pittsburgh have been the two most likely suitors, but we shall see how it plays out.

Players who signed my scorebook: Juan Rincon, Justin Morneau, Terry Mulholland, Kyle Lohse, Grant Balfour, and Shannon Stewart.

I had this exchange with Ron Gardenhire while Morneau was five feet away signing autographs: 

Me: "Hey Gardy, Doctor Morneau needs to be in the lineup."

Gardy:  [looks over at Morneau]:  "Never, that guy is a bum.  He's benched for the year." [starts laughing and tosses me a ball]

I posted longer thoughts on the games over at the DTFC Twins Forum in the three game threads.  I highly suggest checking them out if you.  Here are pictures taken during the weekend:

Justin Morneau signing autographs on Friday right below us.  My conversation with Gardy occurred while he was here.

I made sure to get at least one picture of Grant Balfour lugging around the Barbie backpack.  After initially saying he was funny looking, my girlfriend now thinks Balfour is hot simply because she heard him talk.  He and I chatted about his agent before Friday's game.

LeCroy hit some absolute mammoth homeruns during batting practice on both Saturday and Sunday.

Corey Koskie stretched his leg out on the railing before the game began.  The camera battery was beginning to die at this point.

LLLEEEWWW, Cuddy Bear, Justin, and Nick Punto all ran together before Sunday's game

Justin is practicing his monstrous swing while Cuddy Bear, LLLEEEWW, Nick Punto and Torii stretch and get loose

My first look at the powder blue uniforms during the National Anthem on Saturday.

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posted on July 23, 2004

Off to Baltimore

Nick Punto and Michael Cuddyer both hit homeruns yesterday to pace the Twins to a 7-5 victory and 2-game sweep over the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  Punto's homerun, just the third of his career, was especially shocking.  After all, the guy weighs about 94 pounds and has a slugging percentage below some batting averages.  In addition, there were three guys on base.

Just as unlikely as Punto's grand slam were the events that followed.  The normally very effective Juan Rincon entered the game in the eighth after another fantastic Johan Santana start.  He promptly walked two batters and gave up a single before facing Rocco Baldelli.  Baldelli deposited the ball in the left-center seats to tie the game and give both teams a grand slam.  It was just the second homerun allowed all season by Rincon and everyone (except Joe Nathan, of course) is due to have a bad game on occasion.

Michael Cuddyer, who has received more playing time in the past week than the six weeks before combined, quickly untied the game with a leadoff homerun in the eighth inning.  I still have confidence that Cuddyer can become an above average player if he is just given consistent playing time. 

Nathan then entered and closed the game out with his typical dominance.  Do you realize that he has been scored upon in just two games all season?  Plus, the Twins won both games.

Tonight the Twins open up a three-game series in Baltimore.  I'll be at the games so be sure to watch on TV or listen in for a note from me.  I'll be the tall guy in the Twins jersey and red Twins hat.

I'll be posting pictures from the games all weekend so keep stopping by.

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posted on July 21, 2004

The Fabulous Baker Boy

Scott Baker was promoted to AAA Rochester last night and will join their starting rotation immediately.  Right now, he is absolutely flying through the minor league system and mowing down hitters at every level.  This is already the second promotion for him this season and there have been some rumblings that the team may even consider him for a spot in the major league rotation sooner rather than later.

Here are the totals he has accumulated this season already:

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	ERA	K/9	BB/9	K/BB
A	45	40	13	12	6	37	1	2.40	7.40	1.20	6.17
AA	70.1	44	23	19	13	72	2	2.44	9.24	1.67	5.54
Totals	115.1	84	36	31	19	109	3	2.42	8.52	1.49	5.74

I cannot decide which of these totals is more eye-opening than the next.  First of all, he has allowed just three homeruns all season at a rate of one per 37 innings pitched (or every four complete games).  Second, he managed to increase his strikeouts per inning after his initial promotion by twenty-five percent.

If he keeps improving his strikeouts at that rate, he will be striking out over 14 batters per 9 innings if he reaches the Twins this season.  Obviously, that will not happen but it is fun to imagine a right-handed version of Johan Santana.  Of course, his stinginess regarding homeruns also makes him a polar opposite of Santana in that regard.

His strikeout-to-walk ratio is also fantastic.  In fact, if his 5.74 ratio would be fourth in all of Major League baseball behind Brad Radke, Curt Schilling and Ben Sheets if he had accomplished it with the Twins.

I cannot remember the last time the Twins had a pitching prospect who performed this well in the minors.  Current studs like Brad Radke and Johan Santana really developed on the fly at the Major League level.  Plus, the Twins are fairly conservative in rushing prospects (see: Morneau, Justin) along so I am delighted that he is not being forced to continue to dominate a level he has already mastered.

Baker entered and left AA with a bang.  In his first start with New Brighton, he pitched a seven inning, one-hitter against Portland and missed a perfect game by just one out (it was a seven-inning game because it was part of a double-header).  In his final start, he struck out 14 and walked just one batter in six innings against Binghampton.

Needless to say, I am excited about his future and cannot wait to see him in a Minnesota uniform.  Of course, if Terry Mulholland keeps channeling Jamie Moyer, I might have to wait a little while longer.

Also, in other minor league news, Erik Lohse was promoted from Ft. Myers to AA New Brighton today.  He is Kyle's younger brother and had been pitching in relief for the Miracle.

Thanks for stopping by.  Please come back this weekend when I upload some pictures from the games in Baltimore.  Also, look for me on the television.  I'll probably create a Circle Me Bert sign for Saturday's game in order to wish my sister Happy Birthday.

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posted on July 20, 2004

Quick Notes on the Weekend

Sorry about the lack of content the past few days.  I spent the weekend in Atlantic City celebrating the birthday of a friend.  After getting hammered at blackjack and poker, I was in a pretty frustrated condition.  What are the odds of getting four full houses in less than one hour and only winning one of them?!  Anyway, I meandered on over to a craps table and got extremely hot and won in all back.  Good times!

Secondly, thank you for the uptick in comments at the end of my posts.  I went from averaging zero to five.  Keep them coming!

Finally, I suppose I should comment on the Twins since I have said nothing about the past five games.  Well, Joe Mauer's injury has left me extremely disappointed.  I have still yet to see him live (even on TV) and now he will not be appearing in Baltimore this weekend.  In addition, it postpones the debut of the Mauer-Morneau lineup that I have been anticipating for a long time.

Of course, that ties in nicely to the promotion of Justin Morneau.  There was absolutely nothing left to prove and Doug Mientkiewicz finally, mercifully allowed himself to be placed on the disabled list.  He has had his typical nagging injuries all summer long and his batting line was terrible.  I'm very excited because I will get to see Morneau hit this weekend while Laurie is excited because she can get his t-shirt autographed.

Lastly, Terry Mulholland continued the Twins run of well-pitched games.  Brad Radke has been the only starter to not give the team a quality start since the All-Star break.  Come back Wednesday afternoon when I will have a much more coherent post up and please keep stopping by through the weekend and beyond as I hope to post some pictures of the Twins in Baltimore.

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posted on July 15, 2004

A Midseason Wish List

Now is a pretty good time to stop and assess the season.  Similarly, it is a great time to make up a bunch of wishes about the second half of the season.  I wish that...

• Justin Morneau was recalled from AAA and played in 80% of the games the rest of the way

• Whatever being inhabited Luis Rivas during the beginning of June to return to his body

• Jose Offerman's visa was revoked forcing him to return to the Dominican Republic for the rest of the season

• Terry Ryan was able to turn Jacque Jones into three useful players

• A reliable fifth starter would emerge from within the organization

• Grant Balfour continues to improve and sees his role increase

• Joe Nathan remains unhittable

• Brad Radke could get some wins

• Johan Santana could get some wins

• Johan Santana ends up leading the American League in strikeouts

• Shannon Stewart, Lew Ford and Joe Mauer are the first third of the lineup

• Corey Koskie finally got healthy and had an excellent second half of the season

• Terry Mulholland retires out of the kindness of his heart

• Michael Cuddyer pushes Luis Rivas out of the second base picture

• The White Sox fade yet again

• The Indians and Tigers both finish ahead of the fourth-place White Sox

• The Twins upset the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs

• The Twins upset the Red Sox in the American League Championship Series

• Joe Mauer homers in the bottom of the ninth inning (thanks, Roger) of Game 7 of the World Series to give the Twins a 2-1 victory over Philadelphia

• People to start commenting on my entries - tell me anything (i.e. "you suck", "This is what I would do")

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posted on July 13, 2004

Limping into the Break, Part Two

Yesterday, I set up the Shannon Stewart Return, Part Two.  The theory was that Stewart's arrival in the lineup will spur the Twins to break out of their collective offensive funk and play inspired and winning baseball during the second half of the baseball season.  The reason that this may be expected is because virtually exactly the same thing occurred last season.

Now, here is the tricky part.  What two spots in a lineup can Stewart be expected to play?  The answer is simple: left-field and designated hitter.  The problem is determining who rides the pine.  Lew Ford, the everyday left-fielder for the past two months, has posted an Equivalent Average (EQA) of .298 this season.  In his time before his injury, Shannon Stewart compiled an EQA of .295.  Thus, the improvement by replacing Ford with Stewart is minimal at best.

At designated hitter, Matthew LeCroy has a .263 EQA.  Despite being my favorite player, LeCroy has been a disappointment this season.  By placing Stewart or Ford at designated hitter and removing LeCroy from the lineup, the offense main get a boost.  Of course, LeCroy could then be used as the backup catcher and platoon mate for Joe Mauer.  Henry Blanco, he of the .196 EQA, can be replaced easily.  In addition, Jose Offerman's .251 EQA also can take a backseat to the Ford/Stewart combination.

Another option would be to slide Ford over into right-field.  Jacque Jones's EQA is a paltry .259 - a pathetic job for a corner outfielder.  Jones and LeCroy have virtually identical offensive contributions so a little creativity might help the production. 

Against right-handed pitchers, Jones could play right-field while either Ford or Stewart starts as the designated hitter, then, with a left-handed pitcher on the mound, Ford can slide into right while LeCroy can DH.  Of course, this scenario then requires Henry Blanco to remain on the roster or Joe Mauer to catch way too many games.

Wait a minute, Doug Mientkiewicz is sporting a dismal .251 EQA at first base.  The Twins could play LeCroy at first base to spell Mientkiewicz.  This would also improve the offense slightly, but the defense would probably suffer.

The whole moral is that the offense can be expected to improve simply with the addition of Shannon Stewart.  Of course, the whole exercise can quickly be proven to be pointless if Ron Gardenhire refuses to face up to facts. 

The facts in question seem to be: Jacque Jones is playing terribly - especially against left-handed pitchers; Doug Mientkiewicz is one of the weakest offensive players in the lineup - and not just relative to other first basemen; Lew Ford, despite being the least established player in the lineup on Opening Day, deserves to play very often; and Matthew LeCroy might not be best suited to continue on as the everyday designated hitter throughout the course of the season.

One minor detail can throw a wrench into this entire drill.  That is, the team might finally wise up and give Justin Morneau a spot in the lineup everyday.  In his brief stint on the team, he compiled a .307 EQA.  The sample size was so small (27 plate appearances) that it is basically meaningless.  However, his minor league EQA adjusted to the Major Leagues is .274. 

That total, while not earth-shaking, certainly compares favorably to those of Doug Mientkiewicz, Matthew LeCroy, Jose Offerman, and Jacque Jones - four players who right now possess valuable plate appearances that can be diverted to a superior hitter.

So after reading this entire entry, you may realize that I did not really answer my question.  Instead, I just circled the issue while provided some options.  The reason is simple, I have no idea if Shannon Stewart's impact is imagined or real.  However, I do know that the Twins have several internal moves that can produce a more efficient run-scoring environment.  When your are nearly last in the league in offense, every little edge counts.

Also, I am wondering what you expect out of the offense in the second half.  Do you agree with my assessment and suggestions?  Do you have other ideas?  Please comment and let me know what needs to be done.

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posted on July 12, 2004

Limping into the Break

Last year, the Twins lost eight straight games before the All-Star break and twelve games out of thirteen overall.  The offensive was not quite anemic at that point because even an anemic offense can score on occasion.  However, the team was reinvigorated during the three days off with the addition of Shannon Stewart and subtraction of Bobby Kielty.

Suddenly, everything clicked.  The Twins won four straight games against Oakland with the A.J. vs. Everybody subplot out in the open.  From there, the Twins continue to play better, crisper baseball in the second half and found themselves in the playoffs again.  The addition of Shannon Stewart seemed to radically improve the team's fortune and drew him national acclaim for his impact. 

It seemed that Stewart was much more powerful than Spiderman, but last year the Fantastic Four of Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Kenny Rogers and Kyle Lohse doing the dirty work in the shadows deserve some of the credit.

Of course, the removal of Joe Mays from the starting rotation and implementation of Johan Santana also played an enormous role in the turnaround.  In fact, the offense was performed at virtually exactly the same level.  The pitching staff, on the other hand, improved substantially and basically led the revival.

One year later, the team is standing at a similar junction.  The offense just sputtered while the Detroit Tigers won three straight games at the Metrodome to enter the break.  The fan base is seemingly getting tired of watching the team tread water and counting on the yearly implosion of the White Sox.  People are suggesting the Twins should use their organizational depth to acquire a solid player and add some salary to the payroll to spur the team on.

In addition, Shannon Stewart will be added to the lineup for the second straight year.  In 2003, he joined the team from Toronto, in 2004 he is rejoining the team after being sidelined with plantar fasciitis which translates literally from Latin into my foot hurts like hell.  Will his return be the key the team needs?

Unfortunately, the hidden improvement of the pitching staff cannot occur.  Johan Santana and Brad Radke have been reliable for most of the first half while Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse are about to trade places in the starting rotation in terms of production.  While the team has a gaping hole at fifth starter (Scott Baker, anyone?), Rick Reed did not inspire a lot of confidence last season. 

In fact, about the only place for substantial improvement in the pitching staff is the possiblity of an increased role of Grant Balfour.  Unfortunately, the will probably only be about 35 innings over the rest of the year, so his role still will not be season-altering.

No, the pitching staff is not going to suddenly improve by half of a run per game.  Instead, the offense really needs to be fixed.  Last season, the team scored almost exactly the same number of runs per game with Stewart in the lineup as it did without him.  Can last year's much lauded Savior fulfill the same role this season without the sidekicks in the shadows?  I'll try to answer that question tomorrow.

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posted on July 9, 2004

Utter Domination

So I'm an idiot.  In my rush to get to work yesterday morning, I forgot to upload my newest column.  Here it is with another entry attached at the bottom.  Sorry that I didn't provide any new material yesterday, for once the reason was my stupidity rather than my laziness.

Last night, Kyle Lohse completed the hat trick for the Minnesota Twins starting rotation.  He went out and threw the third complete game shutout in a row against the Kansas City Royals.  In the series the Twins outscored Kansas City 25-0.

In addition, the Twins had 34 hits compared to 13 for Kansas City.  The Royals also committed all three errors in the series.  The combined batting lines for the two teams:

Twins 337/407/535 vs. Royals 138/196/138

Plus, the three Twins starting pitchers combined to strike out 24 batters while walking just 2.  In short, the Royals were the perfect medicine to cure me from my White Sox induced depression of last week. 

Today, the Tigers come to town for a four game series that will wind up the first half of the season.  The Royals and Tigers have swapped roles from last season.  Now the Tigers are playing surprisingly better than anybody could have expected while the Royals  pretty much suck in every facet of the game.

Terry Mulholland starts tonight and will surely end this run of shutout pitching.  It will be his second, and hopefully final, start of the season.  He should get starts on the rare occassion that the scheduled starting pitcher comes down with the flu or pulls a muscle shortly before the game begins and another pitcher cannot be flown in before the start of the game. 

No team, at this point in his career, should every actually use him as Plan A.  He should always be Plan D for the rest of his life.  After the break, I would love to see Jesse Crain recalled from Rochester to take Mulholland's space on the staff.  This would allow Grant Balfour to slide into the fifth starter's slot while Crain can take Balfour's recent allotment of of fairly high-intensity innings.

Entry, part 2:

As I predicted, Terry Mulholland ended the Twins' run of shutout pitching.  Of course, I never would have predicted that he could tack five more innings onto the streak.  At that point, Ivan Rodriguez led off the sixth inning with a solo homerun.  The blame lays solely on Gardenhire as he got greedy.

After all, one shutout inning from Mulholland does not seem like much.  I could definitely see two innings happening in the right circumstances.  However, five seems absolutely shocking.  Rather than cash in his chips like Gardy had planned to do, he decided to role the dice one last time in the sixth inning and it came back to temporarily haunt him.

After the Tigers finally broke the scoreless tie, Gardenhire turned to the three men who I believe will be the best pitchers in the bullpen during the second half of the season.  Grant Balfour, Juan Rincon and Joe Nathan were all well rested and combined to pitch 3.1 innings while striking out 6 batters and allow 1 baserunner.

Rincon and Nathan have already proven to be a very effective one-two punch at the end of games and the Twins are desperately searching for a third option.  Steadily, Grant Balfour is working his way into that role.

After a terrible start of the season, Balfour has settled down very well.  In his past ten starts, he has allowed just 2 earned runs in 11.2 innings while striking out 16 and walking 4.  While I would love to see him cut down on his walks, it is pretty much impossible to complain about a pitcher with a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

While the bullpen was mowing down Tigers, the Twins offense sprung to life and scored seven runs in the final three innings.  Cristian Guzman was the offensive star as he homered, doubled and drove in four runs.

My two bones to pick with Gardy: allowing Mulholland to try to pitch the sixth and using Jose Offerman as the designated hitter while Michael Cuddyer and Michael Restovich sit on the bench. 

At this point in his career, Offerman cannot do anything against lefties (except get RBI singles when I complain about him).  Both Cuddyer and Restovich need all the at bats they can get, so it seems silly to sit them on a day that plays right into their strength.

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posted on July 7, 2004

Resting the Bullpen

Johan Santana gave the bullpen their second straight day off yesterday.  He cruised to a 4-0 victory and pitched his first complete game and his first shutout while matching a career high with 13 strikeouts.

In two games the Omaha Royals have now accumulated six singles and no runs against the Twins.  These two games marked the first back-to-back shutouts for the Twins since 1976 when Pete Redfern and Dave Goltz achieved the feat.

Santana is now 15 strikeouts ahead of Curt Shilling for the American League lead.  If he can continue to keep the ball in the park, a very big if, then he can be absolutely dominant down the stretch for the Twins.

After all, the homerun is now Santana's only weakness.  He has improved his control to the point that he is now twentieth in the entire Major Leagues in walks per 9 innings.  I really do not have a lot else to add except that Santana and Radke now have me extremely excited to get to the second half of the season.

Also, it is crazy how quickly my perception of someone can change.  Last month, John Buck was the Triple A catcher for the New Orleans Zephyrs.  After a strikeout ended an inning, he carried the ball back to the dugout before tossing it up to my girlfriend.  Quickly, he became a player for which I would always cheer.

Of course, he was subsequently  traded to Kansas City in the Carlos Beltran trade and started last night against the Twins.  Just as quickly, he became a player I for which I would always cheer unless he was playing Minnesota.  That's to be expected, right?

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posted on July 6, 2004

A Laugher

Last night, the Twins jumped on top of the Royals early to the tune of six runs in the second inning.  Brad Radke, who has been desperately seeking a win (and blew a great chance at one in his last start), took the runs and ran with it.  Radke cruised to his first win in six weeks as he allowed just four singles to the Royals.

I love blowouts when my team is winning.  While a close game has a certain appeal, a blowout helps soothe my nerves after a week of nail-biters.  Radke's starts have all been very close.  The Royals really, really suck right now.  There is no other way of establishing their level of ineptitude. 

Opening Day starter Brian Anderson contributed to the mess yesterday by allowing 3 runs in 2 innings out of the bullpen.  In fact, he allowed a homerun to Nick Punto(!), just the second of Punto's career.  Anderson's ERA continued its ascent all the way up to 7.32.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Twins Opening Day starter watched his ERA fall to 3.42.  Radke still has a little bit of room to go before he reaches the level he was at before his disastrous start against Chicago.

Joe Mauer went 2-for-3 with a sacrifice fly and a double to continue his exceptional play.  Currently he has the best OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) of all catchers in the American League.  Of course, he also has one-third the number of plate appearances as the others.  Still, he has been ridiculously good. 

The only aspect of Mauer's game about which the team was uncertain in Spring Training was his ability to hit for power.  Well, he now has seven extra base hits in his last six games.  I surprised and impressed more and more each day and cannot wait for the next fifteen years. 

Over at the DTFC Twins Forum, I suggested batting Mauer third in the lineup on June 29th.  Apparently, Ron Gardenhire lurks on that site and read my suggestion because he made the move three days later.  In three games in the third spot, Mauer has gone 7-for-11 with two doubles, a triple and a homerun.  Of course, the sample size is ridiculously small, but I like that performance.

All in all, it was a relaxing and much needed easy victory for the Twins.  Hopefully, Johan Santana can continue his amazing performance over the last month and pitch the Twins to another victory tonight.

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posted on July 3, 2004

Knowing the Team

Yesterday, I wrote about my frustration with the team.  Of course, I also noted that no matter how bad things got, I would not abandon them.  One of the many reasons why I will stick with them forever is because of the connections I have made with the different players.  For example, I have seen Jacque Jones hit against left-handed pitchers enough to not get my hopes up at all.

Well, this is all relevant because of the game last night.  The Twins had lost five straight games and fallen out of first place.  My old roommate Eric and two of his friends came down from Philadelphia for the holiday weekend.  I decided that a little space might be necessary in my Twins relationship, so I agreed to go out to a bar with them last night. 

Now this is not to be interpreted as me abandoning the team, instead I look at it as one of those days were both sides of a relationship just need a break.  Anyway, I caught the 5-2 score on one of the TVs and saw that Doug Mientkiewicz had homered.  That quickly cheered me up. 

By the time I returned to my apartment, the score had been tied and there was one out in the ninth inning.  Luis Rivas drew a walk and Matt LeCroy stepped up to the plate as a pinch-hitter.  Right then and there I knew that the losing streak was over.  I knew this simply because I know the team. 

My obsession with following the Twins has led me to catch virtually every game.  Therefore, I knew that Matthew LeCroy was 3-for-3 with 3 homeruns and 2 walks as a pinch hitter this season.  Sure enough, LeCroy doubled in Luis Rivas with what proved to be the winning run. 

It's small things like this that make me want to stay a Twins fan forever.  The simple joy in predicting things occur and then watching them happen.  For example, after years and years of watching games managed by Tom Kelly, I could predict about sixty percent of his managerial moves (hit-and-runs, etc.). 

The game takes on a more personal, intimate feeling and I feel justified in knowing way more than is healthy about the team.  That is how I cope, the joyfulness of knowing Matthew LeCroy will come through makes up for all the bad times in between.  One plate appearance, one swing, and one managerial decision brightened my mood for the entire weekend.

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