posted on February 25, 2004

Spring Training Battles: The Infield

The Twins have assembled several very qualified players to fill out the backup outfield spots.  However, the backup infielders that are currently at Spring Training vying for a spot are not nearly as inspiring.  Some are young, some are inexperienced, some are washed-up and some just flat-out suck.  However, today we are going to wade through the alternatives and try to find the best choices.

First, Jose Offerman was signed two weeks ago.  Last season he played for the Bridgeport Bluefish of the Atlantic League and compiled an OPS of 849 (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage).  At this point in his career, it has been accepted that Offerman is primarily a first baseman with terrible defensive skills at most other infield positions.  The last thing the Twins need is a weak-hitting first baseman, but Offerman did play 42 games at second base for the Bluefish.  Defensively, he probably cannot be that much worse than Luis Rivas and his .361 career on-base percentage would look nice manning second base.  However, Offerman is now thirty-five and has not had an on-base percentage over .350 in three years.

Nick Punto was acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in the Eric Milton trade.  In just 111 plate appearances at the Major League level, Punto has compiled an OPS of just 545.  Punto has never shown power at any minor league level (his career high in home runs is 5 at AA in 2000), but he has blazing speed.  He has successfully stolen 82 bases in 100 attempts at AAA over the past three seasons.  In addition, he demonstrated good plate discipline in 2002 when he last received regular playing time by drawing 76 walks in just 115 games.  Defensively, Punto has been below average in range factor at second base, third base and shortstop, but he has not accumulated enough playing time to accept that data.

Augie Ojeda was signed after being released by the Chicago Cubs.  He is already thirty years-old and has spent time on the Cubs roster in each of the past four seasons.  Overall, he had a OPS of 542 with the Cubs in 148 games.  In addition to struggling on offense, he attempted to steal just three times with the Cubs.  Punto has a little more playing time to evaluate his defense, and he also is below the league average at third and second bases and shortstop.

Alex Prieto got a cup of coffee with the Minnesota Twins last season after Corey Koskie was injured in July.  He compiled a 674 OPS in AAA.  His slugging percentage at Rochester was decent, but he showed pathetic plate discipline as he walked just once for every 19.5 at bats.  With the Twins, he had just one hit in eight games and was used primarily as a defensive substitution at second base.  Again, he did not compile enough innings to create an acceptable sample size for evaluation, but he has a reputation as a solid defender with decent range.

While Luis Rodriguez and Jake Mauer were both invited to Spring Training, I highly doubt that either of them will receive serious consideration for a roster spot.  Instead, the final competitor is probably Michael Cuddyer.  I already covered Cuddyer when I wrote about the battle for the backup spots in the outfield.  Here’s what I wrote:

I would like the Twins to be very creative with him and take full advantage of his flexibility.  Once a week, I would like to see Cuddyer start at least one game a week at both third base and second base while also filling in at right field and first base pretty regularly.  For example, when Johan Santana, an extreme fly ball pitcher is on the mound, Gardenhire should sneak Cuddyer into the game at second base and greatly improve his offense.  At the same time, by spotting Corey Koskie at third once a week, Cuddyer will hopefully help Koskie stay healthy the entire season and may also prove to be talented enough at the Major League level to let Koskie leave as a free agent in the off-season.  Plus, Cuddyer should make a fantastic platoon partner with Jacque Jones in right field.

If I was forced to make a decision regarding which players make the Twins today, I have an extremely difficult time.  First, Michael Cuddyer’s flexibility and lack of options basically guarantees him a spot on the roster this season.  That means that the Twins will have a capable backup at both corner infield positions.  Thus, I need to choose a player that can occasionally spot Cristian Guzman and Luis Rivas in the middle of the infield.  I would probably choose Nick Punto based on his relative youth and his blazing speed.  He has a lot more upside than any of the other choices.  Finally, the Twins need to fill the last spot on its roster. 

Personally, I would love to see Lew Ford make the roster, but instead I expect the Twins to take Jose Offerman or a twelfth pitcher.  If Offerman can demonstrate that he is able to play a passable second base defensively, then I would not be too upset with his inclusion on the roster.  After all, the Twins need all the solutions they can find to their disaster at second base.  However, if Offerman is on the team solely to spell Mientkiewicz on occasion and to pinch hit, then Gardenhire and Terry Ryan will be committing a horrible misuse of talent.

  |

posted on February 22, 2004

Burning Bridges

"They wanted me here. It's nice to be wanted by the team you're playing for. And if you earn something, you earn something. It wasn't like that there [in Minnesota].” – Dustan Mohr

I hate to be the one to break the news to Dustan Mohr, but someone in the Twins organization definitely wanted him around.  Dustan Mohr had more plate appearances as a Twin last season than Bobby Kielty, Michael Cuddyer, Mike Ryan or Lew Ford.  However, he also had the lowest OPS+ (on base percentage + slugging percentage adjusted relative to the rest of the league) of any of those players.  In fact, despite being the oldest of that quintet, Mohr was the least productive offensively.

I have tried to understand why Mohr received so much playing time the past two seasons, and the answer I found most reasonable was that Ron Gardenhire simply liked him.  After all, that must be the reason why Mohr repeatedly started ahead of Lew Ford last season.  It also must explain why Michael Cuddyer lost his spot as the starting right-fielder to Mohr for two straight seasons.  However, I was stunned to learn that Gardenhire and Mohr apparently were not the best of friends.  When asked about leaving the Twins, Mohr publicly blasted Gardenhire.  “The most disappointing thing was that Gardy never even called me," Mohr said of Twins manager Ron Gardenhire. "Not once. After spending seven months a year with the guy, I thought I at least deserved a phone call."

Now, I’m being too harsh on Dustan Mohr by simplifying his production merely to offense.  After all, he was a solid defensive player and was brimming with aggressiveness.  No other Twin consistently threw his body around for the sake of the team the way Mohr did the past two seasons.  In fact, I really liked Mohr and his scrappy play.  Unfortunately, the best place for a scrappy guy lacking offensive talent is on the bench where he can occasionally light a fire under his teammates while not receiving too much action.

I guess the message of this story is not to put too much stock into an individual player’s opinion of himself.  Dustan Mohr has every right to be frustrated about leaving the Twins.  However, he just needs to take on glance at the many other outfielders in the Twins organization to learn that he simply did not fit any longer.  I hope that Dustan Mohr feels wanted in San Francisco and whatever other teams he plays for throughout his career.  I also hope that he lowers his expectations slightly and becomes satisfied to be on a Major League roster rather than complaining about losing playing time to clearly superior players.

  |

posted on February 21, 2004

Spring Training Battles: The Outfield

As Spring Training begins, I would like to look ahead and attempt to project just how it will end.  I would like to find any roster spots that are uncertain while also trying to determine the favorites and the possible surprises.

The starting lineup is essentially set barring a trade of Jacque Jones which seems increasingly unlikely each passing day.  However, the backup roles in the infield and outfield have yet to be settled.  In the outfield, Lew Ford and the three Michaels (Restovich, Cuddyer, and Ryan) are competing for two spots.  Of these players, Lew Ford is far and away the one most suited for a role as a backup outfielder.  First, he can consistently get on base which makes him a pretty valuable pinch-hitter in the late innings.  Plus, he has historically been a good base-stealer and is a solid defensive player that can spell Torii Hunter in center on occasion.

Michael Restovich would be able to fill the role of the knockout punch off of the bench for basically any Major League team.  Restovich will come to the plate and swing as hard as possible and always be a threat to hit a homerun.  Of course, the biggest downside in Restovich’s game is his propensity to strikeout.  He is pretty fast for someone his size, but he is limited to playing in the corner outfield positions defensively.

Michael Cuddyer is probably the most likely of these four players to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster.  The reason is simple: he has the highest upside, and is out of options.  If Cuddyer does not make the roster, then the Twins will be forced to put him on waivers in order to send him to the minor leagues.  However, any Major League team will be able to obtain Cuddyer for the simple price of a waiver claim provided that they then place him on their roster (and the Tigers, Dodgers, Expos, Mets, and several other teams would be stupid if they let him slip through).  Offensively, Cuddyer has frequently been compared to Tim Salmon by Aaron Gleeman, but it is pretty universally accepted that he should be able to hit at least 25 homeruns a season with a batting average in the .280 to .300 range if given at least 500 at bats.  Plus, Cuddyer provides a great deal of positional flexibility.  He can play right field, third base and first base passably (and is attempting to learn second base). 

Finally, Michael Ryan had such an absurdly good September last season (1195 OPS) that I decided to sponsor his page at BaseballReference.com.  He also hit better during that one month than at any other point during his career.  Like Restovich, Ryan is prone to strikeouts while also providing homerun power.  Of the four players, he is the only left-handed batter.  In addition, he can also play centerfield if Torii Hunter needs a break.  However, the biggest drawback to his game is that Ryan was having an abysmal 2003 season until September.  In his third straight season at AAA, Ryan was hitting just .225 when he was called up to the majors and went on his terror.  His astonishing September was attributed to getting his vision corrected, but there is still a lot of doubt lingering that he is just benefiting from a small sample size of at bats.

Judging from the comments made by Ron Gardenhire, Mike Ryan seems to have secured himself a spot on the Opening Day roster.  In fact, I am terrified of the prospect that Gardenhire has already transferred his fascination with Dustan Mohr onto Ryan and will play him ahead of much better options.

The second spot will probably be filled with Michael Cuddyer.  I would like the Twins to be very creative with him and take full advantage of his flexibility.  Once a week, I would like to see Cuddyer start at least one game a week at both third base and second base while also filling in at right field and first base pretty regularly.  For example, when Johan Santana, an extreme fly ball pitcher is on the mound, Gardenhire should sneak Cuddyer into the game at second base and greatly improve his offense.  At the same time, by spotting Corey Koskie at third once a week, Cuddyer will hopefully help Koskie stay healthy the entire season and may also prove to be talented enough at the Major League level to let Koskie leave as a free agent in the off-season.  Plus, Cuddyer should make a fantastic platoon partner with Jacque Jones in right field.

Michael Restovich can spend another year in AAA working on this control of the strike zone.  If he was given an extended amount of time in the majors, I have my doubts about his readiness in the league and his skills are not very well suited for a bench role.  Lew Ford, on the other hand, really has nothing left to prove in the minors and should be with the Twins.  However, he simply is going to lose out in the numbers game during Spring Training.  In short, I expect to see Ryan and Cuddyer filling in off the bench in April while Ford and Restovich can spend more time getting acquainted with the nightlife in Rochester, New York.

  |

Posted on February 17, 2004

Mientkiewicz's Contract: Looking Ahead

Yesterday the Twins signed Doug Mientkiewicz to a two-year contract with an option for a third season.  The fact that Mientkiewicz will be the 2004 first baseman is no surprise, but most people, myself included, expected next year to be Mientkiewicz’s last in a Twins uniform.  By signing him to a multiple-year contract, this definitely makes me rethink that possibility.  Thus, I’m going to look at the impact that has in 2005.

First and foremost, Justin Morneau needs to be on the Twins roster in 2005 to provide a very cheap power source.  However, with first base seemingly occupied, the only available position will be at designated hitter.  This might actually be the ideal position for him because his defense at first base is still very raw and needs a great deal of improvement.  I expect Morneau to spend most of 2004 in Rochester improving his pitch selection and he would probably be added to the postseason roster (knock on wood) the way Michael Cuddyer was last season.

However, the situation is not nearly that simple because of Matthew LeCroy.  LeCroy will be the main designated hitter this season while also spelling Mientkiewicz at first and may also make a few appearances at catcher.  He is the most legitimate right-handed power threat in the lineup and has mashed left-handed pitching for an entire career (except for his overmatched 2000 season).

Thus, entering 2005 the Twins will have three valuable players competing for just two positions.  One of these players will most likely be traded, but who should it be?  Personally, I think that Morneau should be one of the few untouchable players in the organization and hope that he gets a chance to blossom in 2005.  Thus, that leaves just Mientkiewicz or LeCroy fighting for one spot. 

The great thing about Mientkiewicz’s new contract is that there is now an established cost of his 2005 season rather than being in the hands of an arbitrator.  If Mientkiewicz has another solid year with the bat (an OPS above 825), then he would be very valuable as trade bait.  At the same time, I fully expect LeCroy to hit at least 25 homerun this year.  LeCroy has been jerked around by the organization for several seasons, but this is finally his chance to have a full-time role.  There are a lot of teams that interested in LeCroy if he is put on the trading block after the season because of his power and his relatively low cost.

Both LeCroy and Mientkiewicz would be very valuable commodities if they produce in 2004 at the level I expect.  Thus, Terry Ryan can pursue of a trade of either player and will probably be able to find a very good deal.  Personally, I would rather trade Mientkiewicz for several reasons.  First, he will be more expensive that whatever salary LeCroy will earn and moving him will allow the Twins to clear up salary space.  Second, as much as I value his phenomenal defense, I see both LeCroy and Morneau as providing a much more stable offensive future while Mientkiewicz can always regress to his 2002 level.  Finally, Matthew LeCroy has been my favorite Twin since his debut in 2000, and I would hate to see him leave the organization.

If I was forced to predict which player leaves the organization, LeCroy would be my best guess.  I simply think that Mientkiewicz has become to much a part of the organization for them to trade him.  The team already is in position to radically revamp its roster after the season and it will probably cause a hit in public relations if Mientkiewicz was also moved.  The only real problem that I can foresee is if Terry Ryan sits on his cards for too long next off-season, but I am willing to bet that he has learned from the current Jacque Jones situation and will act much more quickly.

  |

Posted on February 15, 2004

Nine Questions

Jim Souhan recently wrote an article for the Star Tribune detailing the 9 biggest questions the Twins will face in 2004.  I thought it would be interesting to look at these questions and to offer my own answers.  Thus, this will be a mini-preview of my thoughts for 2004.

1. How will the Twins replace Hawkins and Guardado, one of baseball's most effective relief combinations?

I think that Joe Nathan will be a decent addition to the bullpen, but it is very unlikely that LaTroy Hawkins will be really erased.  Also, I hope that Grant Balfour and Mike Nakamura get a chance to establish themselves with the Twins because I believe they both have the talent to be quality major league pitchers.  Replacing Guardado will be more difficult because of the uncertainty involving all of the Twins left-handed options.  J.C. Romero, when healthy and confident, can be outstanding, but did not pitch well last year.  I expect to see a pretty decent season out of Kevin Tolar in relief with Romero continuing to scuffle.

2. What are the prospects for the Twins' rotation, now that Milton, Rick Reed and Kenny Rogers are gone?

I'm pretty sure anybody can provide seventeen innings, so Eric Milton's contribution will be replaced easily.  In the same way, Rick Reed was not a key contributor last year and I expect that Grant Balfour will get about 15 starts and provide some solid pitching.  The Twins should be able to cobble together some decent work to fill those last 45 starts out of Rick Helling, Juan Rincon, Carlos Silva and Peter Munro.  In fact, I would like to see Munro get the first crack at the starting job, but that will probably never happen.

3. How good can Mauer be?

Extremely, but not right away.  In 2004, I expect a line of about 275/415/360 with about 5 homeruns while providing Gold Glove caliber defense.

 4. With Shannon Stewart, Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones in the outfield, what will become of the Twins' many outfield prospects?

I hope that Michael Cuddyer can spend the year as a super-sub the way Tony Phillips used to be.  He could get a start each week at first, second and third base and also occasionally fill-in the corner outfield spots.  This will keep Koskie and Mientkiewicz refreshed and healthy.  Ryan will probably be the fifth outfielder and left-handed hitter off of the bench.  Ford really should get a crack at the fourth outfielder role, but will probably spend time in AAA as he remains Ron Gardenhire's whipping boy.  Michael Restovich really needs to be in a different organization, but if the plan is for him to replace Jones while Cuddyer replaces Koskie in 2005, then keeping him in AAA this year will serve a purpose.

5. Which players are most critical to the team's success this year?

I agree with Souhan and Gardenhire that Corey Koskie really needs to be healthy and productive this season.  Joe Mauer also needs to be able to adapt to the new level because the Twins really do not have any other options at catcher.

Johan Santana is the most important pitcher because he has some minor health concerns and seems at odds with the organization.  The Twins need to smooth things out and allow him to have an amazing season.

6. What should the Twins fear?

More whining and self-loathing out of Torii Hunter.  Also, Ron Gardenhire scares me.  He may just chase out another young, talented player (like Bobby Kielty and Lew Ford).  The Royals should be pretty good, but their rotation is too suspect to really be considered the favorite in the AL Central.

7. Which Twins prospects could play the biggest roles this season?

I would love to see Jesse Crain as the closer by mid-June.  In addition, Grant Balfour and Micheal Nakamura really get a chance to be on the pitching staff.  Justin Morneau needs to be given consistent playing time somewhere, so I would not mind keeping him at AAA unless Mientkiewicz or LeCroy gets hurt.

8. Who's due for a breakout season?

Kyle Lohse is extremely close to becoming a very good starting pitcher.  If he can continue to harness his control, be more efficient with his pitches and retire left-handed hitters, then he can easily win 15 to 18 games with an ERA in the mid 3s.

I also expect big seasons out of both Jacque Jones and Corey Koskie.  Both were hampered by injuries last year and have a lot to prove as they both will be free agents after the season.

9. Which players could be spending their last year in Twins' uniforms?

Koskie, Jones, Doug Mientkiewicz, Brad Radke, and Cristian Guzman all should probably not be retained after the year as the Twins continue to try to stay competitive while maintaining a limited payroll.

  |

*This page is not affiliated with the Minnesota Twins or Major League Baseball in any way.  If you believe that it is, then I am very flattered and you are very stupid.