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this was written on February 17, 2004
Yesterday the Twins signed Doug Mientkiewicz to
a two-year contract with an option for a third season. The fact
that Mientkiewicz will be the 2004 first baseman is no surprise, but
most people, myself included, expected next year to be
Mientkiewicz’s last in a Twins uniform. By signing him to a
multiple-year contract, this definitely makes me rethink that
possibility. Thus, I’m going to look at the impact that has in
2005.
First and foremost, Justin Morneau needs to be
on the Twins roster in 2005 to provide a very cheap power source.
However, with first base seemingly occupied, the only available
position will be at designated hitter. This might actually be the
ideal position for him because his defense at first base is still
very raw and needs a great deal of improvement. I expect Morneau to
spend most of 2004 in Rochester improving his pitch selection and he
would probably be added to the postseason roster (knock on wood) the
way Michael Cuddyer was last season.
However, the situation is not nearly that
simple because of Matthew LeCroy. LeCroy will be the main
designated hitter this season while also spelling Mientkiewicz at
first and may also make a few appearances at catcher. He is the
most legitimate right-handed power threat in the lineup and has
mashed left-handed pitching for an entire career (except for his
overmatched 2000 season).
Thus, entering 2005 the Twins will have three
valuable players competing for just two positions. One of these
players will most likely be traded, but who should it be?
Personally, I think that Morneau should be one of the few
untouchable players in the organization and hope that he gets a
chance to blossom in 2005. Thus, that leaves just Mientkiewicz or
LeCroy fighting for one spot.
The great thing about Mientkiewicz’s new
contract is that there is now an established cost of his 2005 season
rather than being in the hands of an arbitrator. If Mientkiewicz
has another solid year with the bat (an OPS above 825), then he
would be very valuable as trade bait. At the same time, I fully
expect LeCroy to hit at least 25 homerun this year. LeCroy has been
jerked around by the organization for several seasons, but this is
finally his chance to have a full-time role. There are a lot of
teams that interested in LeCroy if he is put on the trading block
after the season because of his power and his relatively low cost.
Both LeCroy and Mientkiewicz would be very
valuable commodities if they produce in 2004 at the level I expect.
Thus, Terry Ryan can pursue of a trade of either player and will
probably be able to find a very good deal. Personally, I would
rather trade Mientkiewicz for several reasons. First, he will be
more expensive that whatever salary LeCroy will earn and moving him
will allow the Twins to clear up salary space. Second, as much as I
value his phenomenal defense, I see both LeCroy and Morneau as
providing a much more stable offensive future while Mientkiewicz can
always regress to his 2002 level. Finally, Matthew LeCroy has been
my favorite Twin since his debut in 2000, and I would hate to see
him leave the organization.
If I was forced to predict which player leaves
the organization, LeCroy would be my best guess. I simply think
that Mientkiewicz has become to much a part of the organization for
them to trade him. The team already is in position to radically
revamp its roster after the season and it will probably cause a hit
in public relations if Mientkiewicz was also moved. The only real
problem that I can foresee is if Terry Ryan sits on his cards for
too long next off-season, but I am willing to bet that he has
learned from the current Jacque Jones situation and will act much
more quickly.
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