posted on August 31, 2004

A Tale of Two Pitchers

Let's look at three players and then try to determine what role they should have on a Major League roster.  Here are the three:

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	ERA	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
Pitcher A	36	53	24	23	12	20	5	5.75	3	5	1.3
Pitcher B	51.2	61	29	26	11	21	8	4.53	1.9	3.7	1.4
Pitcher C	48	52	22	19	10	20	7	3.56	1.9	3.8	1.3

Pitcher A has been pretty bad.  He's allowed almost two base runners for every inning that he has pitched.  The only spot on a roster for this pitcher would be as a mop-up man pitching solely in blowouts in order to rest the rest of the bullpen.

Pitcher B is a little more interesting.  This pitcher is not striking out anybody, but he also is not walking anyone either.  His performance seems to rely entirely on his ability to pitch around any hits that he allows.  While this pitcher does not provide the strikeouts typically associated with a good reliever, he still would be a viable option at the end of almost team's bullpen.

Pitcher C has a very good ERA.  In fact, if he had pitched enough innings to qualify, then he would be tied with Jake Westbrook and Roy Oswalt for eighteenth in the Major Leagues in ERA.  He's allowing barely over a hit per inning and is being very stingy with his walks.  His 1.29 WHIP would be tied for thirtieth out of all pitchers in baseball with enough innings to qualify.  In short, he's a pretty effective pitcher who deserves a spot on any pitching staff in the Majors.

Of course, the problem lies in the fact that Pitchers A, B, and C are all the same person.  I'm sure a few of you have already identified Terry Mulholland as the pitcher in question.  His horrific performance out of the bullpen is represented by Pitcher A.  Pitcher B is his performance as a starting pitcher while Pitcher C is his performance by a starting pitcher prior to his past start against Texas.

The reason B and C were separated was to demonstrate just how thin the ice Terry has been skating upon really is.  In just one start, in just eleven outs, in just seven runs, Terry Mulholland went from being a very useful starting pitcher to being the definition of mediocre. 

Prior to his last start, the key to Mulholland's success was avoiding hits as he had allowed just 9.8 per 9 innings.  Adding in the nine hits from his last appearances, and he suddenly is allowing 10.6 hits per 9 innings.

The Twins have actively sought out pitchers who refuse to walk batters.  Mulholland exemplifies this approach as he issues just 2.4 walks per 9 innings.  However, he does not strike out anybody and this can lead to disaster.  If the many balls hit into play are hit at fielders, then Mulholland looks pretty good (Pitcher C).

Currently, the Twins are turning 67.4% of balls that Terry Mulholland has allowed in play into outs.  I smarter man than I can probably demonstrate the odds that Mulholland could quickly allow nine hits in three innings.  (Actually, I might be able to show that in a few weeks because I start my graduate level statistics course on Wednesday.) 

Anyway, it is impossible to know which Mulholland will show up on any given day for the rest of the season.  However, I am going to say that the odds are likely that he will not be as good as his early starts indicated.  In fact, I am going to go out on a limb and say this Mulholland's ERA for the month of September will be between 4.53 and 5.75.

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posted on August 26, 2004

Peeking Up the Skirt of the Future

First, I do not want to be blamed for stealing a title.  Therefore, I will happily refer you to a column (featuring a lot more analysis) about the GW men's basketball team that makes me impatient for our Preseason NIT showdown against Wake Forest.

Last night, I wrote about Tuesday's game featuring many unexpected occurrences.  None of them could have prepared me for something that happened last night.  With the Twins ahead 8-5 with two outs in the top of the ninth inning, Luis Rivas stepped up to the plate.

As he dug in against Brian Shouse, Rivas already had a double, a triple and a homerun in the game.  If he could muster a single, Rivas would be the first Twin since Kirby Puckett to hit for the cycle.  Of course, Rivas had already reached his allotted number of hits for any given week and made an out.  Still, it was a pretty amazing accomplishment for Rivas.

There were a couple of other offensive stars to go along with Rivas.  Shannon Stewart and Lew Ford both supplied three hits to a seventeen-hit attack.  Also, in his first start since being hit by a pitch by C.C. Sabathia, Justin Morneau homered and singled before drawing an intentional walk.

I sometimes cannot wait to see a healthy Twins lineup next season.  I know that several other writers have touched on this topic recently, but the Twins really have the potential to score a lot of runs next year.  Stewart will obviously bat in the leadoff spot, and I think I would then put Joe Mauer in the #2 hole.  His bat control will help him take advantage of the holes created by Stewart's presence on first base.  Plus, his on base skills make him virtually ideal for this spot in the order.

I would then bat Lew Ford third followed by Justin Morneau.  This, in effect, has alternated the batters in an attempt to avoid giving the opposition a chance to lineup a tough lefty or righty on these guys. 

After those first four spots, I suppose Torii Hunter fits in to the fifth spot and Corey Koskie the sixth by my earlier logic.  I, however, would like to see them flipped because Koskie does a great job of avoiding double-plays while Torii seeks them out.  (Seriously, look at the link - it's pretty cool.)

In the final three spots, I really don't have any preference because I also have no idea who will be playing second, shortstop and right field.  Ideally, the choices would be Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and anyone not named Cristian Guzman.  However, it is not really an issue for another eight months, so I am not even going to speculate right now.

In fact, I would not be surprised if the Twins are able to pluck someone in another organization as part of the return for Jacque Jones.  Jones has been very mediocre this year, so why would anybody part with someone who can help the Twins immediately to acquire him?  Well, as mediocre as Jones has been, at least he is healthy. 

I am still stunned that Terry Ryan was able to turn a pitcher who made three starts into a fourth starter and a utility player while saving approximately the GNP of Aruba.  His ability to make something out of a tough spot (the Jason Bartlett for Brian Buchanan trade is another great example) is probably the best aspect of Ryan's tenure.  I'm looking forward to seeing this team next year, but I'm also looking forward to seeing them play this October.

So... Joe Nathan, get your head back together!

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posted on August 25, 2004

The Best Laid Plans...

Yesterday was not supposed to happen.  First, the Twins should not have had much difficulty in scoring more than three runs off of Chris Young.  After all, Young was not exactly Plan A when the Rangers realized they needed another starting pitcher.  Instead, he is more like Plan L.  Despite his inexperience, he breezed through the Twins lineup and only had a rough fourth inning in which the Twins pushed across three runs on two homeruns.

According to the script, Carlos Silva should not have pitched six shutout innings against the great Texas offense.  Instead, Silva should have allowed about 11 hits and 5 runs while barely surviving those innings.

If all had gone as expected, Juan Rincon would not have entered with a three-run lead and then left after allowing the Rangers to tie the game.  Well, that might have happened, but he would at least have had the decency to stick around until the conclusion of that inning so he could Vulture another win.

If this game had been typical, J.C. Romero would have allowed several base runners in a nerve-racking inning before escaping without allowing a run.  Oh wait, he did that...  In fact, did you realize that Romero has not allowed a single run since he returned from AAA in June?  His ERA is down to 3.07 and he has pitched 25.2 consecutive scoreless innings.  He has only allowed 23 base runners during that stretch, although it seems like a lot more.

If yesterday's game did not vary from its predetermined course, then Francisco Cordero would never have allowed a run in the top of the ninth inning.  He had a 16.2 inning scoreless streak snapped when the Good Doctor doubled to centerfield.

Finally, Joe Nathan should not have allowed a run.  The last time he blew a save, he bounced back to save about fifty in a row.  This time, however, he followed with yet another blown save.  After allowing a run in just two of his first fifty-three games, he has now been scored on in three straight appearances. 

It is not time to panic about Nathan's slump yet.  As a closer, he was going struggle at some point.  I'm just happy that is occurring now, in August with an 8-game lead, than in October in a seven game series.

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posted on August 24, 2004

Watching Johan and Defending Soriano

Watching Johan Santana pitch last night, I was amazed at how captivating he can be on the mound.  He is no longer just a hard-thrower possessing a great changeup, instead he is now a pitcher.  Of course, this is not really a news flash to most of you, but last night was the confirmation with my own eyes of his dominance.

I watched as Texas Rangers waited and waited and waited.  They knew the changeup was coming.  Even with that knowledge, they were unable to do anything with the pitch.  On several occasions, one of the Rangers visibly started his swing twice and still was early on the pitch.  Johan's changeup absolutely destroyed the timing mechanisms employed by the various Rangers.

Of course, it would not be a Johan start if he did not allow a homerun to a random opponent.  Yesterday, Gary Matthews, Jr. hit a long homerun after battling Johan in the third inning.  Santana retired the first seven players with ease (only four of his pitches had been hit, fair or foul).  His stuff looked dominating and I was just starting to dream about watching him pitch a no-hitter.  Of course, Matthews' 400-foot blast shattered those thoughts.

Offensively, the Twins were extremely patient as they built up The Gambler's pitch count.  After Henry Blanco's double gave the team a 3-0 lead, twelve of the final fourteen hitters took the first pitch of their plate appearance.  That includes both of Matthew LeCroy's appearances in the fourth and fifth inning sandwiched around Jacque Jones being thrown out stealing to conclude the fourth.

Then, Doug Brocail entered the game in relief and promptly began mowing through the order.  However, it was not for lack of the team's lack of patience as the first seven batters he faced also took the first pitch.  The Twins finally pushed a run across on Brocail in the ninth inning after a two-out Alfonso Soriano error.

Rick Sutcliffe was all over Soriano all game as he blamed the second baseman for Rogers' early departure, the final five Twins runs (indirectly), the cut on Rogers' face, and Justin Morneau's wrist injury.  I had two thoughts during the various tirades. 

First, Soriano has always been a lackadaisical defensive player.  He clearly should have caught Koskie's single in the third and his error (and lack of hustle on the wild pitch) in the ninth inning were both poor plays.  If Rivas had been the second baseman in any of those three instances, I would have been furious.  Of course, it's not like Rivas has ever let a reachable ball get past him...

Second, Sutcliffe then crossed a line in my mind.  For one thing, I could not find much fault with Soriano's force play during the fourth inning in which Sutcliffe claimed he waited too long to play the ball.  Was he supposed to charge the ball and then flip to second from behind his back while avoiding Stewart?  During that tirade, it seemed like Sutcliffe had an axe to grind with Soriano and was looking for any reason to fault him.  Maybe Alfonso should be more discreet the next time he and Mrs. Sutcliffe go on a double-date with Michael Cuddyer and Ron Gardenhire.

Anyway, Sutcliffe then kept hammering that Showalter needs to do something about Soriano.  He insinuated that he should be moved off of second base, that he was selfish for refusing to switch to shortstop and making Michael Young move at the end of Spring Training.  Of course, this overlooks the fact that Young was slated to play short immediately after the A-Rod trade which occurred on February 16th. 

I realize that this is predominately a Twins site, but I was getting very tired of all of the pot shots being taken at Soriano's expense.  The game was nationally televised and it is a shame that people are fed untrue information about a team to which they are rarely exposed.  If I didn't know better, I would have thought that Soriano was a clubhouse cancer.  Of course, the reverse is also true.  If I didn't know better, Rick Sutcliffe would have me believing that "nobody has more range up the middle than Cristian Guzman and Luis Rivas".

Still, I will never ever get tired of watching the Twins play (please ESPN, televise even more games).  Also, they did honor my request of not sending Berman along, so it was a great night.  Televised game + Twins win = Happy Will

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posted on August 23, 2004

Sunday Thoughts

The Twins completed a three game sweep of the Cleveland Indians and have won six of their past seven games.  Suddenly, the Twins have the most secure playoff spot of all of the American League contenders.  While the Yankees are 5.5 games ahead of the Red Sox and the A's, Angels and Rangers are battling in the AL West, the Twins have a seven game lead in the Central.

In the sixth inning, Justin Morneau was hit in the wrist by C.C. Sabathia and left the game at the conclusion of the inning.  My first thought was to call my brother and tell him to wrap Lew Ford in as much bubble wrap as he could find.  However, I figured that even that would not prevent Lew from being injured because Lew is Lew and would do something silly like repeatedly jumping off of the IDS Tower or something.

My second thought was that Justin Morneau needs to stop bunting on Sabathia.  Just last season, Sabathia plunked two Twins because the team had the audacity to make him fight Newton's First Law and get in motion to field a bunt.  Thankfully, Morneau's x-rays were negative and he should be back in the lineup.  I doubt the Twins will forget this incident and one of their September call-ups (possibly the Real Deal) may endear himself with the staff by hitting an Indian or two.

Corey Koskie continued his torrid week by adding his fifth homerun in the past seven games.  Ever since he defiled a piece of locker room furniture, Koskie's bat has been on fire and he suddenly has the exact same OPS this season as in his entire career.  His Isolated Power (slugging percentage minus batting average) has skyrocketed this year to .239, a thirty-two percent increase over his career rate.  I love watching Koskie play when he is healthy. 

In fact, my favorite part of his game is probably the little "hitch" in his swing.  When he is hitting well, he drops the bat down to drive the ball.  Just before making contact, the bat seems to stop and cradle the ball almost as if he is playing lacrosse before sending it out into play.  His homerun yesterday came on a swing that demonstrated this hitch perfectly.  I look forward to watching the game tonight on ESPN (please no Berman, please no Berman, please no Berman...) in the hopes of seeing him send a ball sailing out in the Texas heat.

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posted on August 19, 2004

Rolling Out the Playoff Arms

Last night, the Twins stuck it to the Yankees again.  Winning by a score of 7-2, the Twins increased their division lead over Cleveland by another whole game.  If the season was to end today, the Twins and Yankees would match up in the first round of the playoffs.  So far, the stellar work of our starting pitching makes me feel as if the Twins have a very good chance of advancing.

In fact, no matter who the Twins match up against, they have a great chance to move on.  Baseball Prospectus' Value of Replacement Level statistic (VORP), demonstrates no other team has a better one-two punch than the Twins.  If Brad Radke had received any run support, he would easily be approaching the thirteen wins that pitchers such as Johan Santana, Mark Mulder, Curt Schilling and Kenny Rogers have already reached.

After keeping the opposing team at bay for the first six or seven innings, the next very valuable ingredient to playoff success is a few lights-out relievers.  Well, it is hard to complain about someone who has given up a run in just TWO appearances.  Plus, BooBerry has been very steady in his role as the first reliever to enter in a crucial spot of a tie game. 

Now that Grant Balfour is back (and popping 96 MPH on the radar gun), the Twins have the third right-handed power option they desperately crave.  Finally, Jesse Crain, if brought along nicely by Ron Gardenhire, could be the fourth fire-baller ready to come in and throw smoke come October.  All of these options are great because they push J.C. Romero and his wild-pitch-throwing, groin-grabbing, sign-shaking self further down the totem pole.  I have given him many chances but I am finally completely accepting that his 2002 version will never return.

Finally, I was thrilled to get a chance to watch a game for once this season.  Of course, my enthusiasm was tempered by the fact that my softball team lost 22-3 (with me driving in all 3 runs on 2 homeruns), and especially by the fact that Chris Berman was announcing the game.  I basically tuned him out, but I just do not understand why he is still allowed to get near a microphone. 

It is bad enough that he spawned the Stuart Scott School of Stupid Sayings, but he makes my ears bleed when he tries to come up with the lamest puns this side of Tim McCarver.  Chris, for my sake, please stop.  You may have been funny when ESPN was just forming and I was just a figment of my parents' imagination, but now you are horrible.  On the bright side, I'm going to go back this weekend when I have spare time and re-watch the game on the ReplayTV.  If you hear anybody saying, "You Were Seating Three Days Ago, Bitch", then it was probably me.

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posted on August 18, 2004

Making a U-Turn Again

Perhaps the aspect of baseball that sets itself apart from all other games is the sheer number of games per season.  After the debacles on Friday and Saturday, I found myself unable to write about the Twins.  I did not even want to acknowledge their existence because I felt so badly about the way they played.  In fact, it was about to become the Weekend of Which We Never Speak as Terry Mulholland sauntered out to the mound on Sunday.

Flash forward two games, and the Twins now have an even bigger lead in the AL Central than they did when the Cleveland series began.  The two veterans in the starting rotation both supplied extremely well-pitched games and J.C. Romero and Juan Rincon managed to not pitch too poorly.  Plus, Johan K. Santana is starting tomorrow and I'm beginning to feel optimistic again.

If this was football, it would have taken a month's worth of action for my emotions to reverse this drastically.  Baseball, however, has managed to make me visualize the status of the AL Central race about five different ways in the past week. 

I'm still scared to death of the Cleveland offense.  I'm still worried about the Twins being stymied by terrible starting pitchers.  I'm still certain that Terry Mulholland is human.  Plus, I now have finally come to completely endorse the Jose Awfulman roster spot.  His double on Sunday might prove to be the biggest hit of the entire season.

Unlike another Twins blogger, I'm not particularly pessimistic.  Instead, I think that everything will work out in the end.  However, I hate to see the team lose a single game which is why I will throw tirades towards managerial decisions that I view as detrimental to the team's chance of winning an individual game.  One of my biggest pet peeves is the way in which Gardy manages his bullpen in tie games. 

Rather than use the single most dominant reliever in baseball this season, Gardy attempts to piece his way through the late innings with inferior pitchers like J.C. "The Groin Grabber" Romero.  It only takes a minor spark for me to erupt towards a strategy, but I really do believe the Twins can go 162-0 every season.  This also explains why I would not make the best GM for the team.

Well, I'm rambling now, but tonight should be another great Twins game.  Johan K. Santana vs. Mike "The Twins Killer" Mussina.  It's on ESPN, so I'll be able to use ReplayTV to watch Doctor Morneau deposit another ball into the upper deck as many times as I desire.

Come back tomorrow, and I'll be back on a regular posting schedule.

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posted on August 13, 2004

The Un-Provens Have Proven Themselves

First, I'm sorry that I did not have a post yesterday.  After a loss like that, there is pretty much nothing that I can say that will help anybody get a better understanding or better feeling about it.  After all, the Mariners scored the winning run after hitting one ball about 120 feet.  On a much brighter note, I finally got hired at the position I was "offered" way back in April.  I officially start on Monday so you will no longer see me using this as a forum to complain about the current job market.

Yesterday, the Twins salvaged the third game in Seattle thanks to some very unproven players when the season started.  After all, in April both Lew Ford and Justin Morneau were slated for the lineup in AAA Rochester.  They combined for four extra-base hits, four runs and four RBIs up with the big club yesterday.  The other seven players in the lineup combined for just two runs.

Out on the mound, Johan Santana pitched another solid game.  In fact, he pitched seven innings while allowing just one run in what seemed to be a poor game for him.  He has created such a ridiculously high standard for himself, that it seems shocking that a batter can even get a hit off of him.  During the course of the game, he took over the Major League lead in strikeouts.

Just a few months ago, Johan was still not quite a proven commodity.  He was spectacular in the second half of 2003 but ended the year suffering injuries in the playoffs and undergoing surgery in the off-season.  While I expected greatness from Santana, there were still a few people who wanted to see more than just two months of excellent work in the starting rotation before verifying his worth.

At the end of the game, Joe Nathan struck out the side in the ninth inning.  He has now struck out the past six batters he has faced.  Plus, he has not allowed a run in over two months.  Plus, he has not blown a save in over three months.  Plus, his ERA is now a 0.85.  Keep in mind the he had no experience as a closer prior to this season.  I, along with many others, were unsure how reliable Nathan would prove to be.

At the time of the AJ trade, Nathan almost seemed to be a "throw-in" who would find a spot in the bullpen and give the Twins some value while the highly rated prospects took their time developing.  Now, he has become one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball.  Plus, Francisco Liriano is holding his own at AA New Brighton despite being very young for the level.

Finally, these players all seem to be feathers in the cap of Terry Ryan.  Lew Ford was acquired for a pitcher who allowed exactly the same number of base runners as the number of outs he recorded while with the Red Sox.  Santana was acquired for just cash and Jared Camp. 

Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano were acquired for a player the Twins believed they had to trade.  Thus, despite boxing themselves into a corner, the Twins got great value for Pierzynski.  Finally, Justin Morneau was considered an "over-draft" when the Twins chose him in the third round.  Rather than make the Twins look like fools, Morneau is making the rest of the league kick themselves as one of the best young, power players in the game.

Well done, Terry Ryan.

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posted on August 11, 2004

I'm Tired

I do not really have anything new to add to the site today for several reasons.  The biggest reason is probably that the Twins are on the opposite coast from me and that I most likely will not be staying awake until the game ends.

However, do not discount my anger, frustration and general bitterness towards the world as a second reason.  I'm mad as hell and there's nothing I can do about it.  After all, I could not really stop Terry Mulholland from allowing four runs to the first five batters that he faced yesterday. 

At the same time, I'm tired of being treated like absolute shit for three months while waiting for my full-time job to kick in, and that has not gotten me anywhere either.  I'm tired of red-tape.  I'm tired of being lied to.  I'm tired of having my hopes built up and then crushed.  I'm tired of trying to figure out how to pay for my extremely modest lifestyle.  I'm tired of everybody telling me how sorry they are about their situation and how they wish they could help.  I'm tired of people giving me impractical advice.  I'm tired of eating pasta and quesadillas because those are the only two things that I can cook and are cheap.

Finally, I might as well rerun one of my first posts on this updated page back in February.  I received some angry responses that said I was committing heresy by endorsing Lew Ford as a starting outfielder.  Of course, I also suggested trading the "wrong" outfielder if I had to do it over again.  Enjoy:

posted on March 6, 2004

Who Plays Center?

Yesterday, Torii Hunter sprained his wrist during a Spring Training game against the Cincinnati Reds.  Thankfully, the X-rays were negative and so Hunter is not looking at missing an extended period of time.  However, his injury raises the question, “Who plays centerfield if Hunter suffers an injury?”

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posted on August 10, 2004

A Baseball Time-Machine

After Sunday's marathon game, I had high hopes that the Twins would be able to redeem themselves (in my mind).  Instead, the offense went out and had yet another clunker taking a page out of their May and June script while conveniently looking past the much more popular April and July method of scoring actual runs.

I, like most of you expect, occasionally wish that I had a time machine.  I would use it to go back and witness events that now only occur in memories.  For example, I would like to see events like a) Babe Ruth, either hitting or pitching; b) the pyramids being built by whomever or whatever built them; c) GW's men's basketball team playing in a NCAA tournament game; and d) ESPN and MTV actually focusing on sports and music rather than crap.

Anyway, those were just some quite suggestions.  As a baseball fan, I have heard and read many people nostalgically talk about the game back in the 1950s and 1960s.  These Dodgers struggled mightily to score runs, but had both an excellent  right-handed starter and an even better lefty (one who led the league in strikeouts).  Specifically, the Los Angeles Dodgers teams were built on the pitching of Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale and were like no team that exists at the present. 

Patrolling centerfield, the Dodgers had Willie Davis, a winner of multiple Gold Gloves, and a player willing to swing at anything moving towards the plate.  Davis was consistently inconsistent from the age of twenty-one through the age of twenty-nine.  Finally, he put all of his offensive skills together and had an excellent stretch of six consecutive seasons with an OPS+ better than 100 (one hundred is exactly a league average player). 

I can only hope that the free-swinging centerfielder on the Twins can also put it together at the age of twenty-nine.  Otherwise, his contract will be looking worse and worse.

Te Dodgers won the World Series in 1963 despite finishing dead last in their league in runs scored.  Of course, Dodgers Stadium is an extreme pitcher's park and that helped decrease their scoring.  However, the team in general just did not like to score runs.

Well, what is my point, anyway?  My point is, while I would have loved to have seen the Dodgers in their element, I am absolutely sickened when the Twins decide to pay tribute to that weak-hitting club.  Sure, a pitchers' duel is very fun and captivating, but it is also fun when your team scores more than fifteen runs in a week.

It would be pretty fun to dig through baseball history and find other team's that exhibited similar traits as the Twins.  However, I would rather bang my head on the wall while bemoaning the lack of offense.  With that, I'll invite you back tomorrow.

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posted on August 9, 2004

Quite the Game

Yesterday, the Twins and A's hooked up in an epic eighteen-inning battle that ended with the Twins not quite scoring enough runs.  Terry Mulholland was the losing pitcher, but it is hard to fault him for losing the game.  After all, he is Tuesday's scheduled starter and probably had not even considered pitching in yesterday's game until about the fourteenth inning.

Joa Roa pitched five spectacular innings during the time when the Twins and A's were exchanging doughnuts on the scoreboard.  I have been critical of him in the past (because he allows practically every inherited runner to score), but he was fantastic yesterday.  In fact, the whole pitching staff was great.

Jesse Crain and Joe Nathan each pitched very good innings, and I would have loved to have seen them stretched out a little bit longer.  However, Ron Gardenhire was managing both yesterday's game and the future (today and the rest of the season), so he wanted to have them both available today and to have Crain remember how well he performed.  If this exact same game occurred in the playoffs, I would be fuming over Gardenhire's aversion to using Nathan for more than one inning.  Today, however, I'll let it slide.

The real story was the inability of the offense to produce any runs.  The Twins were able to scratch together three runs off of Mark Mulder in eight innings before being shutout for nine innings.  Finally, after Oakland had gone ahead by three runs, the Twins began accumulating base runners.  Lew Ford walked and scored on a Justin Morneau homerun and Matt LeCroy was stranded on base when the game finally ended on a Michael Cuddyer pop-out. 

The Twins wasted several scoring chances and Torii Hunter always seemed to be coming up in these crucial spots.  Of course, there is a big difference between perception and reality, but yesterday, at least, it seemed that Torii was always helping to kill a rally by swinging early in the count and making an out.

Augie Ojeda made his Twins debut at second base after Jose Awfulman pinch-hit for Luis Rivas in extra innings.  I'm not quite sure why he was allowed to hit in the sixteenth inning by Ron Gardenhire.  The only explanation I can think of is that Gardy wanted to keep Cuddyer on the bench until the last possible moment in the case of an injury or ejection.  While this is a decent plan, I would rather not wait for the unexpected but play for the expected occurrences.  An inning or two of Brad Radke in the outfield is not the end of the world, and would be extremely entertaining.

Finally, for those of you who want to get to know me a little bit better, I suggest checking the August archives because I posted a question and answer column yesterday that was not highly read.  Since no one really visits this site on the weekend, I decided to write about myself for a change.

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posted on August 8, 2004

A Look at Me

Since it is the weekend and nobody visits here on the weekends, I have decided to answer thirty-five questions that I've seen on other sites.  This is done, of course, to let you get to know me a little more personally - just like the Get to Know 'Em ad campaign of the 2001-02 Minnesota Twins.  Now to the questions...

1. WHAT COLOR ARE YOUR BEDROOM WALLS? White. My apartment was renovated and expanded by the landlords last winter and I like the plain walls.  My bedroom is decorated with the $1 U2 poster I mentioned the other day, a framed map of Minneapolis from the 1880s, a framed and autographed picture of Harmon Killebrew standing at Fenway Park from his playing days, and an "old-time" photo of my two brothers and me as gunslingers.

2. WHAT BOOK ARE YOU READING NOW?  I'm waiting for The Path to Power to arrive in the mail.  In the past month I have finished Fever Pitch, Angels & Demons, Black Like Me, Profiles in Courage, and Downsize This!

3. WHAT'S ON YOUR MOUSE PAD? It says "God Bless America" and has an American flag in the background.  It came with the monitor I purchased online last fall.

4. FAVORITE BOARD GAME? Cranium, the greatest game ever invented.

5. FAVORITE MAGAZINE? Time.

6. FAVORITE SMELL? Warm brownies

7. FAVORITE COLOR? Royal Blue.

8. LEAST FAVORITE COLOR? Brown.

9. HOW MANY RINGS BEFORE YOUR ANSWERING MACHINE PICKS UP? I don't have an answering machine.

10. MOST IMPORTANT MATERIAL THING IN MY LIFE? Easily my computer.

11. FAVORITE FLAVOR OF ICE CREAM? Tie, either butter brickle or cinnamon depending on the day

12. DO YOU BREAK THE SPEED LIMIT DAILY? I haven't a car since April.

13. DO YOU HAVE A STUFFED ANIMAL IN YOUR ROOM SOMEWHERE? A have a lion and a rabbit somewhere around here - both were gifts from my girlfriend.

14. STORMS - COOL OR SCARY? Awesome.

15. FAVORITE DRINK? Mountain Dew

16. WHEN IS YOUR BIRTHDAY? January 13

17. FAVORITE VEGETABLES?  Broccoli

18. IF YOU COULD HAVE ANY JOB, WHAT WOULD IT BE? Minnesota Twins President

19. IF YOU COULD HAVE ANY COLOR HAIR, WHAT WOULD IT BE? Sometimes I wish I had blonde hair, but I bleached my dark hair once and the orangish color did not look that good.  If I could make my hair slightly lighter, that would be ideal.

20. HAVE YOU EVER BEEN IN LOVE? I am right now.

21. TOP THREE FAVORITE MOVIES (IN ORDER)? The Princess Bride, The Big Lebowski, and This is Spinal Tap!

22. DO YOU TYPE WITH YOUR FINGERS ON THE RIGHT KEYS? Yes.

23. WHAT'S UNDER YOUR BED? Nothing at present (back at home it was full of books, but I don't quite have the money to amass a library yet).

24. WHAT IS YOUR FAVORITE NUMBER? Thirteen or Nineteen.  Those were the two numbers I always tried to wear when I played soccer and baseball.

25. FAVORITE SPORT TO WATCH ON TV & IN PERSON? Baseball, although college football has its moments.

26. WHAT IS YOUR SINGLE BIGGEST FEAR? The Real World (i.e. being finished with my grad school and still not knowing what it is that I want to do with my life).

27. FAVORITE CD OF ALL TIME & RIGHT NOW? All time: The Magical Mystery Tour by the Beatles; Right now: Keep it Together by Guster (I'm not a very big music fiend)

28. FAVORITE TV SHOW OF ALL TIME & RIGHT NOW? All time: Seinfeld; Right now: Curb Your Enthusiasm

29. HAMBURGERS OR HOT DOGS? Bacon Cheeseburgers.

30. THE COOLEST PLACES YOU'VE EVER BEEN? The Rhine River Valley, The Blarney Castle, and the Tower of London.

31. WHAT WALLPAPER AND/OR SCREENSAVER IS ON YOUR COMPUTER RIGHT NOW? Torii Hunter knocking the ball away from Jaime Burke.

32. DOES MCDONALD'S SKIMP ON YOUR FRIES & DO YOU CARE? It doesn't bother me that much as long as I get plenty of those weird diced onions on my cheeseburgers.

33. FAVORITE CHAIN RESTAURANT? Wendy's, although Baja Fresh, Chipotle, and Quizno's are all in the running.

34. IF YOU HAVE A BOY (OR HAVE ANOTHER BOY) WHAT WOULD YOU NAME HIM? I would name my first son something that sounds good like Matthew.  If I have enough children, I'll probably resort to naming two of them Cy and Forever.

35. IF YOU COULD LEARN TO PLAY ONE INSTRUMENT OVERNIGHT, WHAT WOULD IT BE?  My ridiculously small hands seem to prevent me from ever being adequate with a guitar.  Thus, I would like to expand on my brass abilities and learn the trombone and baritone to complement my rusty trumpeting skills that I amassed through high school.

Well there you go.  If that does not give you an intimate portrait of who I am, then I do not know how you will ever truly know me.  Obviously, you could ask me more questions, but what is the fun in that?  Anyway, I'll be back once the weekend ends with some real Twins content again.

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posted on August 6, 2004

Trying the Unknown

Bill James has made many discoveries during his time researching and writing about baseball.  One of the ideas that seems to have withstood the test of time is the belief that a player's minor league performance is helpful in identifying how the same individual will perform upon reaching the majors.  The logic seems to make sense, but people still say, "I just don't trust them because 'The Show' is so much different from AAA".

At one point in time, everyone was unproven.  Barry Bonds was a rookie back in 1986, and Luis Rivas was a rookie back in 2001.  Just because they have both spent years in the Majors, does not mean they both should get a free pass to retain their spot.  It makes absolutely no sense to me why some teams are reluctant to try unproven players when their known commodity is terrible.

Why, for example, would a team stick with horrible production (think Carlos Pulido in April) rather than try a few of their pitchers who are performing well in AAA?  The Twins are getting very close to having this question forced upon them relating to their starting rotation.

Terry Mulholland, while performing admirably this past month, inspires absolutely no confidence while he is on the mound.  Everyone - you, me, the Twins, their opponents and Wally the Beerman - all know that he is about two pitches away from an implosion at any given time.  Yesterday, the implosion occurred as the Angels were able to piece together many hits in the third and fourth innings.

Down at AAA Rochester, the Twins have three pitchers who have pitched very well this year.  Dave Gassner is leading the International League with 13 wins and has walked just 19 batters in 135.2 innings.  He's a soft-tossing lefty, so there is a decent possibility that he might not pan out.  Of course, the Twins also might have the next Jaime Moyer on their hands.

Scott Baker and J.D. Durbin both have been promoted from AA in the past few weeks.  Durbin had an amazing AAA debut earlier this week while Scott Baker has not yet shown the performance he demonstrated while in AA and A earlier this season.  Both of them are still very young and should be in the Majors within two years.

Could these pitchers outperform Terry Mulholland down the stretch?  It's possible.  If you would have told me in June that Terry Mulholland was going to get a vote for AL Pitcher of the Month in July, I would have thought you were lying.  It just goes to show that anything can happen.  Mulholland has proven, way back in 1993, that he could be a decent major league starter. 

Of course, there is also the possibility that a player performing well in AAA still just isn't quite ready.  For example, Jason Bartlett was hitting .310 at AAA.  He was recalled and has been a complete disaster in his few appearances.  If the Twins stick with him, he will probably work through his nervousness and jitters, but right now he is struggling with the bat (0 for 5 in one of the worst examples of using a small sample size) but his defense has also been terrible.

When things are going well, the status quo seems desirable.  However, players should never have their positions set in stone when reasonable replacements are available just one league away.  They might burst onto the scene, or they might bomb, but they should still be evaluated if they have earned it.

Finally, Jesse Crain debuted yesterday pitching 1.1 scoreless innings while allowing 2 hits and striking out 2 batters.

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posted on August 5, 2004

A Stream of Consciousness

The Twins continued their recent hot streak last night by defeating the Anaheim Angels 6-3.  Justin Morneau and Jacque Jones both hit homeruns in the sixth inning to break open a tie game.  In addition, Kyle Lohse pitched seven innings for his first quality start in nearly a month.

With a three-run lead, Juan Rincon and Joe Nathan both pitched scoreless innings in relief with Nathan lowering his ERA to an eye-popping 0.91.

Offensively, the Twins had what seems to be their typical offensive day.  They chased a lot of pitches early in the count and have some ridiculously bad innings.  At the same time, they somehow manage to string three or four hits together (such as the four in the third inning) and push a few runs across. 

This offense is extremely streaky with a very high variance in production from month-to-month, day-to-day and even inning-to-inning.  I have no idea how to put together some data to test this observation, but it would be really interesting to see the Twins standard deviation in runs per month, inning, and game compared to the league average.  Someone much smarter than me is sitting on top of some very interesting information.  However, I doubt that TangoTiger, mgl, or Studes (three of the great baseball statisticians that I know of) peruse this site on a daily basis.  Therefore, it is pretty unlikely that this hypothesis ever gets tested.

In addition, the White Sox got spanked by the Omaha Royals and fell to six games behind the Twins. Teams have recovered from bigger deficits historically, but the odds of a White Sox comeback decrease with every passing day.  It should be noted, however, that just ten games ago, the two teams were even.  In addition, the Twins are also 1.5 games ahead of Texas who is currently the leader in the AL Wild Card race. 

If the season were to end today, the Twins would be in line for a rematch of the 2002 ALDS against Oakland.  This time, A.J. and Billy will not be around to piss each other off.  The two teams conveniently meet beginning tomorrow for a three-game series to see how well the teams line up. 

A strong showing by the Twins (basically a continuation of their fine play against Boston and Anaheim) could result in the destruction of some furniture.  If that is the case, I highly recommend that Billy Beane lay off of the Pöang.  While it looks pretty plain, it is an extremely comfortable piece of furniture.  To me, the Kaustby has the ideal appearance for a chair that needs to be hurled against a wall with a high velocity.

Check back in tomorrow when I decide whether or not to continue to list every item that I own.  Of course, seeing as how I am straight out of college and still waiting for my full-time job to be "approved", the list will not really fill much space.  In that case, I'll probably have to add some more Twins commentary to go along with the U2 Joshua Tree Tour poster that I purchased for $1 simply because it was in a nice frame and would look good on a wall.

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posted on August 4, 2004

A Little Luck

Yesterday, Carlos Silva became the fourth different starting pitcher for the Twins to pitch a complete game shutout this season.  Unlike the others, however, Silva pitched his against a real, bona fide Major League lineup rather than the Omaha Royals.  Of course, Silva also got ridiculously lucky.

Silva scattered eleven hits and two walks in addition to pitching through a Jason Bartlett error.  It seems astonishing, but fourteen of the thirty-five Angels that batted last night actually reached base.  When forty percent of opposing batters reach base, the odds of them not scoring a single run seem pretty slim.

Two things helped consistently bail Silva out of trouble.  First, all eleven hits that he allowed were singles.  Second, the Twins tied an American League record by turning six double-plays.  Silva simply let the Angels put the ball in play.  Luckily for him, the ball always seemed to be hit right at someone whenever a runner was on base. 

In what is becoming a typical out of Silva, he conserved his pitched and averaged under eleven per inning as repeatedly pounded strike after strike making the Angels hit the ball.

There were a few other stories that developed during the game.  First, the Twins continued to score runs powered by homeruns from Torii Hunter, Corey Koskie, Justin Morneau and Henry Blanco.  They also stole two more bases as the team is becoming extremely aggressive on the base paths.

Jason Bartlett finally made his Major League debut by replacing Cristian Guzman at shortstop.  He struck out in his only plate appearance and committed an error defensively while also playing a part in two of the double-plays.

To follow up on yesterday's post on Kyle Lohse, the Twins are definitely exploring options from within the organization.  I interpreted the promotions of Scott Baker and J.D. Durbin to AAA Rochester as an attempt to see if either is ready for the Major Leagues.  I would not be surprised if either of them is starting games in Lohse's spot in September.  Durbin had an impressive AAA debut last night pitching seven shutout innings while allowing four hits and striking out twelve Ottawa batters.

Also, I still hate Adam Kennedy.

That's it for today.  Check back tomorrow night when I hope to continue writing about the surprising performance of Terry Mulholland.  I'm going to sleep early in order to have more energy for tomorrow's column.

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posted on August 3, 2004

What's the Deal with Kyle Lohse?

When Terry Mulholland entered the Twins starting rotation last month, many of the Twins fans were very skeptical.  Why, they asked, was the organization unable to find a fifth starter who was not a member of the AARP?  Mulholland has done his best Tommy John impression to silence his critics, but the Twins fan base is still frustrated with the state of the starting pitching.  Of course, their complaint is aimed at fourth starter Kyle Lohse.

Before the season began, I talked up Kyle Lohse to all of my friends as a sleeper pick in fantasy leagues.  I really thought that he was going to explode this year and finally put it together.  He had stretches in 2003 in which he looked absolutely amazing.  In fact, less than a month ago he pitched a shutout against the AAA Kansas City Royals.  Since that game, however, he has been awful.

This season is Lohse's third complete year in the starting rotation.  What has happened to him?

Year	IP	H	R	HR	BB	K	K/BB	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
2002	180.2	181	92	26	70	124	1.77	3.50	6.19	1.30
2003	201	211	107	28	45	130	2.89	2.01	5.82	1.25
2004	126	160	82	16	49	65	1.33	3.50	4.64	1.14
Totals	507.2	552	281	70	164	319	1.95	2.91	5.66	1.24

In short, yuck.  He has improved his homerun rate, which is very good news.  On the other hand, his strikeout and walk rates are not promising. 

In 2003, Lohse cut down on his strikeouts, but he also pitched twenty extra innings.  I will give him the benefit of the doubt for the six percent decrease in strikeouts in 2003 by saying he was making a concerted effort to conserve pitches by using his defense.  Of course, that could be total crap, but we'll never know.

This year he has continued to lose strikeouts.  However, they have absolutely fallen off of a cliff as he has lost twenty percent of his strikeouts from an already below average rate.  Making batters put the ball in play is not the worst idea.  Unfortunately, Lohse has also watched his walk rate skyrocket this year.  In 75 fewer innings, Lohse has walked four more batters than in all of 2003.  His strikeout-to-walk ratio was more than halved.

There was another Twin in the past few years who experienced success with a low strikeout rate.  He, too, then watched his below average strikeout rate plummet even further.  In fact, here are three consecutive seasons for this pitcher:

Season	IP	H	R	HR	BB	K	K/BB	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
X	160.1	193	105	20	67	102	1.52	3.77	5.73	1.12
Y	233.2	205	87	25	64	123	1.92	2.47	4.75	0.96
Z	95.1	113	60	14	25	38	1.52	2.37	3.60	1.32
Totals	489.1	511	252	59	156	263	1.69	2.87	4.84	1.09

Unfortunately, the Twins chose to reward this pitcher with a very hefty contract after season Y.  While Season Z was bad enough, Z+1 was a nightmare and, of course, Joe Mays has yet to pitch in season Z+2.  Thankfully, the Twins did not rush to reward Kyle Lohse after his 2003 season.

Unless he finds some strikeouts lying around the American League stadiums (the way Bert Blyleven claims to have found his curveball), the long-term for outlook Kyle Lohse is not particularly promising.  After adding in the fact that he is feuding with his manager and coaching staff about defensive positioning, and he might be out of a Minnesota uniform sooner rather than later.