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April 2004 Archives |
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posted on April 30, 2004 One Month Grades: Pitching First, the DTFC Twins Forum recently changed its domain. I had trouble locating the site for a couple of days but found it with the help of Jan, one of its tireless moderators. The links on my site have all been updated, but here's another just in case you have never been. I finally persuaded my brother to visit and he loves the site. Perhaps one of the biggest reasons that I love baseball is that something is always happening. For example, it seems like just yesterday that Shannon Stewart hit a walk-off homerun to win the game on Opening Day. However, one month has already passed, so I think it is appropriate to step back and grade the players on their performance. These grades are entirely subjective (meaning I can establish the criteria and change it based on my mood), but I am trying to rate the players based on what was expected of them. If you don't like my grades, start your own site! Anyway, I will begin today with a look at the pitching staff. This has been a mixed bag and very inconsistent, but I'll try to get through it. Brad Radke: The Opening Day starter has been hit-or-miss this season. Unfortunately, the "miss" part has been far more prominent. In fact, if his 8-inning performance on April 15 is ignored, then he has compiled the following line: 20 IP, 37 H, 17 ER, 13 K, 4 HR. That adds up to a 7.65 ERA with a 1.90 WHIP. Yuck! Grade: D. Johan Santana: Aaron Gleeman has already chronicled Santana's early season performance well. One encouraging sign is that he has been pitching deeper into games in virtually every start. His strikeout totals have also increased with every start. Still, he has just one win and has pitched only two quality starts. Grade: C. Kyle Lohse: I really expected Lohse to take a step forward this season and become a solid (i.e. above average) starting pitcher. He was so wildly inconsistent last season that I hoped he could put together his first and last third of 2003 into one solid performance. Instead, it appears that he is building off the rough stretch he was in last June and July. He gave up just one run in six innings on Wednesday, but still put 10 men on base. His K/BB rate of 1.0 needs a lot of work, and he also has not been pitching deep into games. Grade: D. Carlos Silva: I was very skeptical about the Twins decision to move Silva into the starting rotation after acquiring him from Philadelphia in the off-season. However, he has really exceeded my expectations. He has forced the opposition to put the ball in play (just five walks and eight strikeouts in 24 innings), but has proven that this strategy can be successful. His numbers are skewed by his initial appearance in which he was left in while tiring and gave up four runs in his last inning of work. Grade: A-. Joe Nathan: Well, he has not blown a save yet. I cannot complain about his propensity to give up warning track flyballs because it has yet to haunt the team. Plus, as much as I love AJ, he's playing like crap in San Francisco. Grade: A. J.C. Romero: The 2002 version of Romero was present throughout the first month of the season. He was striking out batters, allowing very few hits and threw 11 innings without allowing a run. Then, disaster struck as he was roughed up for four runs on Wednesday. Opponents were hitting just .167 on balls in play against him before Wednesday game so he was merely getting roughed up as his luck evened out. Still, I am very pleased with his early work and the fact that he has put last season behind him. Grade: B+. Juan Rincon: Rincon stole a win in the only game I have attended this season while leaving a sour taste in my mouth. However, his overall work has been fantastic as the Twins Geek noted. I am pleased with his work so far because he has stepped up into some of the void left by LaTroy Hawkins. Grade: B+. Aaron Fultz: Fultz has pitched very well as the second left-handed option in the Twins' bullpen. He is allowing less than one baserunner an inning. As long as he continues keeping guys off base, the more he increases his value (both to the team and in the free agent market after the season). Grade: A. Joa Roa: Search around the internet if you really do not know why I am spelling his name incorrectly. Roa is a replaceable part at the back of the bullpen who is doing a good job of holding onto his role. Any decrease in his performance and the team will ship him out and bring in fresh blood. Grade: A. Terry Mulholland: He's old. It always looks awkward when a player has grey facial hair. Anyway, he has been allowing a lot of baserunners but has yet to be burned by that trend. He has a more rope than Roa to hang himself because of his past success, but he still will be used only in blow-outs and games extra inning games. Grade: B. Seth Greisinger: He has been the fifth starter but his days in the role are number with the impending return to health by Rick Helling. He actually has a K/BB rate over 4.0 and has been hurt by balls in play. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous .441 against him when the ball is in play (not a strikeout or homerun). It is impossible for that number not to regress towards the mean which bodes well for him. However, the odds of him being on the staff in September are very slim. Grade: B. Carlos Pulido: He sucks. I throw with my left arm and can provide innings in blowouts, so I am as qualified as he for a spot on the staff. Grade: F. Brad Thomas: He was hurt while with the team which probably helped contribute to his poor performance. However, he has now looked terrible in three separate trials with the team so I cannot fault the staff for cutting him loose. Grade: I(ncomplete) So, how do I fare as an arbiter. Too easy, too harsh? Let me know in the comments section on any decisions with which you disagree. I'll return soon to break down the position players. posted on April 27, 2004 Budgeting Time Unfortunately, I have not been able to update this site as much recently as I would like. Thankfully, Seth, the Twins Geek and the guys at Twins Chatter help by continuously updating the internet community on the team. Here's a list of things I have done and will be doing:
I just finished the History of Jazz final a couple of hours ago. A word of advice, if you ever have an opportunity to take a class in which the a large portion of your grade is dependent upon listening to John Coltrane and Miles Davis, DO IT! I applied for a job yesterday, and have yet to hear back but I am very qualified and the best part is that if hired, I will get 6-credits per semester paid for by the school. Basically, grad school would be free! While that list looks daunting, I actually have budgeted my time very well. Unfortunately, the only thing that really did not make the cut was keeping this site updated (and a few PlayStation games). However, once finals are over and I graduate this site should be updated very frequently. I hope that you will continue to stop by here, and do not get frustrated with my lack of content. Also, I may attempt to adapt one of the baseball papers into an article for the website to finally replace my infamous John Dowd article on the homepage. Finally, I will conclude this entry with some baseball content. Luis Rivas finally got himself demoted out of the second spot in the lineup and is dangerously close to being replaced by Nick Punto everyday. I am both happy and sad at this development. The good news is that Rivas will no longer be wiping Shannon Stewart off of the bases every time he reaches. The bad news is that our best option is Nick Punto. Punto has 3 extra base hits and 12 walks in 147 plate appearances! Ick. The chorus has spoken and the team needs to trade one of its outfielders for a middle infielder. I'm sure that if the solution was that simple, then Terry Ryan would have already made a move. The most common team I hear suggested as a trading partner is the Baltimore Orioles. However, neither Brian Roberts nor Jerry Hairson, Jr. represents much of an upgrade on Rivas so a trade would be pointless. Perhaps, the ideal (and somewhat realistic) player that I can think of acquiring is Chase Utley with the Philadelphia Phillies. He has a 848 OPS and is leading Scranton-Wilkes Barre in runs, triples, homeruns, RBIs, and is second in walks and doubles. He is already 25 and is ready for a full-time position in the Majors. Unfortunately, the Phillies are set in the outfield for the next few years with Pat Burrell, Marlon Byrd and Bobby Abreu. If Ryan could somehow insert a third team to the deal (the way Billy Beane does frequently in Oakland), he might be able to turn a player like Michael Restovich or Michael Cuddyer (or even Jason Kubel) into Utley. I rate the odds of this happening at about 1%, but it would be nice to dream. Plus, my dream was realistic - I was not thinking of acquiring Bret Boone or Alfonso Soriano. Ultimately, if Lew Ford keeps hitting (a big if), I would not be shocked to see Jacque Jones traded for a second baseman around the All-Star break. In two of the past three seasons the Twins have altered their outfield in July, and I could see it happening again. I would love to hear some other trade proposals (please keep them realistic) or suggestions about what can be done to remedy the team's "vortex of suck" at second base. posted on April 22, 2004 Hot and Hotter The Twins have been extremely hot since I last wrote an entry. They won all four games played while I was home (swept the Royals) and have won 7 of the past 8 games. The bullpen has been a strength during the recent surge and a trio of relief pitchers specifically need to be singled out. J.C. Romero has now pitched 9 innings (or 1 complete game) this year. Thus far, he has struck out 11 batters while walking 4 and allowing 4 hits. In addition, he has pitched more than an inning in two appearances. While that may not seem important, it is always nice to have the flexibility to stretch out the appearances of a dominating reliever. Overall, Romero has held batters to a both a slugging percentage and on base percentage below .300 (Eric Gagne territory). Romero was very dominant in 2002 and very erratic in 2003, it is great to see him back to his level from two years ago. Aaron Fultz, the second lefthander out of the bullpen has also done a fantastic job. While he has been saddled with a loss earlier this year, he has been every bit as good as Romero, if not better. In 8.1 innings, he has allowed just 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 batters. In addition, he also has demonstrated the ability to pitch multiple innings at a time. He may regress a little bit as some balls in play may start falling for hits (he does not possess the strikeout rate of Romero), but there is no reason that the cannot post an ERA between 3.00 and 3.50 for the season. Coming from the second lefty, that is a definite plus. Juan Rincon has been the opposite of Fultz as he has milked out a pair of wins despite struggling in some appearances. Specifically, last Friday when he allowed a three-run homerun to Carlos Beltran which tied the game at seven. When the Twins regained the lead in the bottom of the seventh, he became the winning pitcher. Overall, he has allowed just nine baserunners while striking out 11 batters in 9.2 innings. If he can harness his control, Rincon can be a very good asset for the team. Finally, the roles of the top four relief pitchers (the aforementioned three and Joe Nathan) have been pretty clearly defined already this season. It is apparent simply by looking at when each pitcher enters the game that Gardenhire has a clear role in mind. Here is a recap of each pitcher:
Rincon: 11th inning, game tied
Romero: 9th inning, game tied
Nathan: 10th inning, game tied posted on April 14, 2004 Early Projections The Twins got a much needed off day yesterday. In the first week of the season, the Twins turned over sixteen percent of the Opening Day roster and many role players have already seen too much playing time. One of the most fun things to do is project current stats over a full season. By doing this we notice some troubling signs:
Just looking at those projections highlights the two biggest problems that have plagued the Twins in the past week: injuries and poor starting pitching. No team can completely prepare for injuries, but the terrible performance by the starters has been particularly frustrating. Throughout the off-season, the starting rotation was expected to be a source of concern because of the inexperience of whomever would be in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Another problem that is briefly noted in those projections is Ron Gardenhire's unwillingness to use Joe Nathan for a) more than one inning, and b) before the ninth inning. If Nathan truly is the best relief pitcher on the team, then he should not pitch the fewest innings of any member of the bullpen. There is no reason for Joe Roa to pitch the tenth inning of a tie game while Joe Nathan is still available and has already warmed up that day. This is a very big pet peeve as the LaRussanization of managers is still the norm. However, the Twins attempted to avoid that initial problem by skipping the fifth starter initially in the year. This may have been wise because the initial candidate for that role, Brad Thomas, has already pitched his way off of the roster. Unfortunately, the front three of Brad Radke, Johan Santana and Kyle Lohse have not picked up the slack. In fact, the best start of the year probably came from Carlos Silva in the fourth game as he provided five shutout innings before running out of gas in the sixth. Anyway, here are so more projections that are not troubling as much as interesting:
Finally, I will be returning to Minnesota for the weekend for the first time since January (and perhaps the only time during the season). I am already planning on attending the Friday evening game against Kansas City and will probably also go on Saturday. I mention this for two reasons. First, please do not be surprised if this site goes without an update for a few days. Second, and more importantly, email me if you plan on attending either game and we might be able to meet up even if only for a few minutes. If you are looking for a fan's perspective on the upcoming opponents, check out the Cleveland Indians Report and U L's Toothpick. posted on April 7, 2004 A Pyhrric Victory Pyhrric Victory: a victory that is offset by staggering losses dating back to a military triumph by the Greek leader Pyrrhus over the Romans in 279 BCE Last night, the Twins fought their Roman War. Using a pitching staff featuring five pitches that already pitched the night before, the Twins bullpen was forced to throw eleven more innings in the extra inning win. The real stars were Juan Rincon, Aaron Fultz and Joe Roa who combined to throw 6.1 innings of scoreless, 2 hit relief. Without their contribution, the Twins do not get the chance to have a billion baserunners stranded before the fifteenth inning. The first, and worst, injury was Joe Mauer's knee injury in the third inning. Initially, those of us who have no access to video or radio were told that he bumped his knee diving for a bunt and that it did not look serious. Unfortunately, he has now been diagnosed with a torn meniscus and will miss about three weeks. Matthew LeCroy can probably provide 80% of Mauer's offense, but he is a significant drop-off defensively. Henry Blanco is virtually the exact opposite as he can replicate the defense, but is about as offensive as Cristian Guzman-with-the-winning-run-on-third when he comes up to the plate. The second injury was suffered by Johan Santana as he began suffering from cramps in his throwing arm. Aaron Gleeman has already noted the injuries that Santana has labored through, so I am very frightened. In his last three starts, Santana has now thrown a combined 11.2 innings (or two-thirds more than the bullpen pitched last night). The final injury was a muscle cramp in Torii Hunter's leg during extra innings. Like Santana, Hunter is not expected to miss significant time but he leaves the team very short-handed in centerfield if he misses a few games. Well, that's not entirely true because Jacque Jones can easily slide over and replace most of his defense while allowing Michael Cuddyer to play right-field. However, Ron Gardenhire will probably play Nick Punto or Mike Ryan in centerfield instead putting the offense at a significant disadvantage. So was last night worth it? I have no idea because the answer to that question lies in how well Matthew LeCroy and Henry Blanco (and to a lesser extent Jose Offerman and Michael Cuddyer) play in the next three weeks. One thing is for sure, the new Metrodome turf is off to a terrible start. Oh, and for a hilarious view of my emotions through the game I suggest that you check the BaseballPrimer chat. Here's a few of my comments from yesterday. Also, the Dickie Thon Twins Fan Club features many updates during the game. Please check out both of those sites for some humor and good Twins talk. posted on April 6, 2004 Shannon Stewart for MVP Throughout the offseason, many people questioned the signing of Shannon Stewart. Why, they wondered, did the Twins need to go out and sign a barely above-average outfielder to a significant contract when they seemed to have outfielders coming out of their ears and other orifices? The reason: he gives the Twins their first legitimate leadoff hitter since Chuck Knoblauch orchestrated his way out of town. While Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones may have more pure athletic ability and talent, they both will frequently throw away at bats without making the pitcher work. Simply by prolonging at an at bat, Stewart added an aspect to the roster that the had been lacking for several years. His game winning heroics last night will help fuel attention towards Stewart. This attention reached a point last year in which national columnists were supporting a campaign to name Stewart the American League's MVP. While this position seems absurd, it is no worse an oversimplification of the team's success than the stathead mantra of attributing it all to better luck and pitching. Last year Stewart fell victim of the Derek Jeter Syndrome. He became so overrated that the resulting backlash made him underrated. Anyway... a few other thoughts on last night's game:
posted on April 4, 2004 Opening Day Today is the best day of the year. I look forward to today for about 150 days each year before it finally arrives. Then, once it is here, it passes by much too quickly.
However, today may also be the last day of my unbridled optimism. After today, the Twins may no longer have a chance at going 162-0. After today, Joe Mauer may no longer be able to bat 1.000 in his career. After today, Brad Radke may no longer have a 2004 ERA of 0.00. After today, Joe Nathan may already look like the next LaTroy Hawkins in the closer's role. I know that baseball is a marathon, but I treat every game like a sprint. During each game, I am annoyed when Cristian Guzman grounds out weakly or Torii Hunter strikes out with a check-swing at a slider in the dirt. I gave up on the Twins' chances to make the playoffs about 20 times last year, but each morning I awoke ready to forgive them. I expect them to win every game, and I will remember and complain about lost chances even knowing that every team will probably lose 60 games. But not today. Opening Day is the one day of the year when I can wake up and have no reason to forgive the Twins. Opening Day is the day that my roller-coaster relationship with the Twins will recommence with me ready to be trampled on all over again. No matter how badly I am treated, I will come back. Today the Twins can take the first step to going 162-0, or take the first step in causing me an agonizing level of stress. Either way, after tonight, I will no longer have any free time until October (preferably the end of the month).
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